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Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?. Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements: Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC). Outline. ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology

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defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?

Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA)

Acknowledgements:Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC)

outline
Outline
  • ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology
  • Observed Trends and Breakpoints
  • Examples of the issues and responses in various sectors
  • Available help
defining the present climate
Defining the present climate

1961-1990

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

defining the present climate1
Defining the present climate

1961-1990

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

trends a reason to change the baseline definition
Trends – A reason to change the ‘baseline’ definition?

Combined global land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (degrees Centigrade) 1861 to 1998, relative to 1961 to1990; University of East Anglia, UKhttp://www.grida.no/climate/vital/17.htm

slide7
National Climatic Data Centerhttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html
slide8
National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/
annual temperature swwa
Annual Temperature SWWA

Created using “Diagnose”

slide13
National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/
early winter swwa rainfall
Early Winter SWWA Rainfall

Break-point in time series at 1968/69

NB: IOCI in general uses a breakpoint of 1975/76, which is the breakpoint of the sea-level pressure data in the region

changes to the baseline
Changes to the ‘baseline’
  • WMO suggested 1971-2000, but this was not adopted
  • Some agencies are using the full period, e.g. NCDC uses 1880-2004
  • Many sectors use the time-period most relevant to their purpose
major system impacts
Major System Impacts
  • 2001 had 2nd worst inflow to Perth dams
  • 8 year sequence of lowered streamflow to 2005

http://www.watercorporation.com.au/Integrated water supply scheme – source development plan

changes to streamflow probability
Changes to Streamflow Probability

177 GL is the mean over 1975-96

response of water corp
Response of Water Corp.
  • Major desalination of seawater
  • Recycling of treated wastewater
  • Better management of dam catchments to improve inflows
  • Trading for water from irrigation cooperatives
slide20
Salt risk and land-useNB: This is an example only. The data is from station data interpolated onto a grid (Jones and Weymouth 1997). There will be differences from maps produced using other methods of interpolation

< 900 mm

< 900 mm

900-1100 mm

900-1100 mm

> 1100 mm

1950-1979

1980-2004

Forestry, Mining

Isohyet limits from Colin Terry, maps plotted using NCC gridded rainfall data by Pandora Hope

wheat yield trend
Wheat Yield Trend

Source: ABS state averages

agricultural responses
Agricultural Responses
  • Fewer very wet years may have affected rates of salinity spread
  • Sowing opportunities tend to occur later
  • Decreased waterlogging in susceptible areas. This may have improved conditions for cropping in higher rainfall areas
  • Technology changes have improved productivity despite generally drier years
tools available
Tools available
  • http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/
  • Australian Rainman (QDNR, BoM et al)
  • DIAGNOSE; CD or website (v. large): ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/bmrc/perm/append/install_v3/
  • MetAccess (CSIRO et al)
  • Climate Calculator – Dept Ag
  • Future projections – IOCI, CSIRO
conclusions
Conclusions
  • There have been strong trends in rainfall in Western Australia, causing sectors to re-examine the climate ‘baseline’
  • Impacts have been strong in some sectors, and variable in others
  • There is a range of tools that can help define climatology, opportunities and risks.
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