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Frontier Technology, Inc. “Crafting Quality IT and Engineering Solutions”. Decision Support Tools To Enable Affordability For Responsive Space Acquisition Services Joe Wotton Principal Program Manager Co-Author Sam Boykin Senior Scientist. 4141 Col Glenn Highway Beavercreek, OH 45431

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slide1

Frontier Technology, Inc.

“Crafting Quality IT and Engineering Solutions”

Decision Support Tools To Enable Affordability For Responsive Space

Acquisition Services

Joe Wotton

Principal Program Manager

Co-Author

Sam Boykin

Senior Scientist

4141 Col Glenn Highway

Beavercreek, OH 45431

(937) 429-3302

WWW.FTI-NET.COM

fti maximizes value to our customers
FTI Maximizes Value to Our Customers
  • DOMAINS
  • Space Systems
  • Air-Space Integration
  • C2 / ISR Systems
  • Signal Exploitation
  • Operations Research
  • BUSINESS AREAS
  • Affordability & Acquisition Tools/Services
  • Modeling & Simulation
  • Engineering & Analysis
  • Sensors & Pattern Recognition
  • TOOLS
  • IDAPS Enterprise Edition
  • ICE™
  • ICAIV™ / RTOC™
  • AOC
  • SOPSMAN™
  • IT SERVICES
  • Software Environ. Analysis
  • Network Design, Ops & Management
  • Software Development
slide5

Attachment 1 to Deputy Secretary of Defense Memorandum, Acquisition Policy, October 30, 2002, entitled The Defense Acquisition System

what does this mean for cost

Effectiveness

Cost

What Does This Mean For Cost?

Effectiveness and cost are weighted equally in acquisition decisions

relative accuracy of cost estimates
Relative Accuracy of Cost Estimates

Uncertainty With Current Tools & Techniques

Estimated Cost/Performance

Uncertainty With

Improved Collaborative

Tool Set

Actual Cost/Performance

of a New Technology

Technology Cost/Performance

Actual Costs/Performance

No System Design

Very Good Estimating Tools

Make up Majority of Estimate

To Base Estimate

(Based on Some System Design)

DESIGN REVIEWS

POST CDR

TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION

slide8

RTOC

Assessments

Performance

Assessments

Affordability

Assessments

Risk

Assessments

  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Internal Models
  • Crystal Ball
  • @Risk
  • Estimations
  • Detailed Design
  • Simulations
  • Demonstrations

Overall Program StrategyFunding Justification Aspects

Funding

Justification

POM, WRAP,

COSSI, PRAM,

etc.

CAIV

slide9

Acq

Costs

R&D

Costs

LCC

Total

Return/

Savings/ROI

Prod

Costs

O&S

Costs

O&S

Savings

Overall Program StrategyThe “How”

Funding

Justification

RTOC

Assessments

POM, WRAP,

COSSI, PRAM,

etc.

CAIV

Performance

Assessments

Affordability

Assessments

Risk

Assessments

  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Internal Models
  • Crystal Ball
  • @Risk
  • Estimations
  • Detailed Design
  • Simulations
  • Demonstrations
slide10

AFTOC / DLR

Etc.

Etc.

SAGE

JOSTE

User Defined..

PRICE-S

CASA

SEER-H O&S

COCOMO

SEER O&S

CORE

SEER-SEM

LCOM

CORE

R&D

Production

O&S

O&S

Savings

Other Models Linkable from Excel (Excel, Access, etc.)

ACE-IT, Etc.

Parts Obsolescence data and tools

ACE-IT, Etc.

Various integrated models / databases

User Defined.

Etc.

Etc.

User Defined.

SAGE

User Defined.

NAFCOM

PRICE-S

NAFCOM

PRICE-H

COCOMO

PRICE-H

SEER-H

SEER-SEM

SEER-H

Overall Program StrategyThe “How”

Funding

Justification

RTOC

Assessments

POM, WRAP,

COSSI, PRAM,

etc.

CAIV

Performance

Assessments

Affordability

Assessments

Risk

Assessments

  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Internal Models
  • Crystal Ball
  • @Risk
  • Estimations
  • Detailed Design
  • Simulations
  • Demonstrations
slide11

Overall Program StrategyThe “How”

Funding

Justification

RTOC

Assessments

POM, WRAP,

COSSI, PRAM,

etc.

CAIV

Performance

Assessments

Affordability

Assessments

Risk

Assessments

  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Internal Models
  • Crystal Ball
  • @Risk
  • Estimations
  • Detailed Design
  • Simulations
  • Demonstrations

SEER

PRICE

ICE

ACEIT

slide12

SYSTEM

ALTERNATIVES

ALTERNATIVES

MOEs

Capabilities

Capabilities vs.

Capabilities

MOEs vs.

Alternatives

Capabilities

vs. MOEs

PRIORITIZED

MOEs

PRIORITIZED

Capabilities

Capabilities

Phase 1

Phase 3

Phase 2

PRIORITIZED

Capabilities

ALTERNATIVE

UTILITY “SCORE”

PRIORITIZED

MOEs

Overall Program StrategyThe “How”

Funding

Justification

RTOC

Assessments

POM, WRAP,

COSSI, PRAM,

etc.

CAIV

Performance

Assessments

Affordability

Assessments

Risk

Assessments

  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Internal Models
  • Crystal Ball
  • @Risk
  • Estimations
  • Detailed Design
  • Simulations
  • Demonstrations
slide13

Overall Program StrategyThe “How”

Funding

Justification

RTOC

Assessments

POM, WRAP,

COSSI, PRAM,

etc.

CAIV

Performance

Assessments

Affordability

Assessments

Risk

Assessments

  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Engineering Buildup
  • Analogy
  • Feature/Process Based
  • Parametric
  • Internal Models
  • Crystal Ball
  • @Risk
  • Estimations
  • Detailed Design
  • Simulations
  • Demonstrations

Crystal Ball

@Risk

Risk+

TRL

Etc.

caiv vision for decision support
CAIV Vision for Decision Support

ARCHITECTURE

SYSTEM

ALTERNATIVES

ALTERNATIVES

Schedule

Insight

Architecture

MOEs

vs.

ARCHITECTURE

PRIORITIZED

PRIORITIZED

ALTERNATIVE

MOEs

MOEs

CAIV

MOEs vs.

Alternatives

Alternatives

ARCHITECTURE

ALTERNATIVE

UTILITY “SCORE”

UTILITY “SCORE”

System

Alternative

Risk

Assessment

Results

LCC and

Cost Savings

Analysis

Results

caiv process template prioritization affordability example
CAIV Process Template (Prioritization & Affordability Example)

ID Missions

Prioritize Missions

Define Requirements

Prioritize Requirements

Select MOE’s

Utility Curve for each MOE’s

Prioritize MOE’s

Select Trade Alternatives

Estimate Alternative $

Score Alternatives

Determine Alternative ROI

Determine Baseline $

Perform Risk Assessment

Utility

Cost

Risk

what is i caiv

ALTERNATIVES

MOEs

Requirements

vs. MOEs

PRIORITIZED

REQUIREMENTS

PRIORITIZED

MOEs

What is I-CAIV?

Analysis of Alternatives

RISK

COST

SYSTEM

ALTERNATIVES

REQUIREMENTS

Reqmts vs.

Requirements

MOEs vs.

Alternatives

PRIORITIZED

MOEs

REQUIREMENTS

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

PRIORITIZED

REQUIREMENTS

ALTERNATIVE

UTILITY “SCORE”

AHP

QFD

QFD

3-D affordability

trade space

  • Methodology and tool enables user to:
  • Prioritize requirements
  • Evaluate requirements compared to MOEs Prioritized MOEs
  • Evaluate MOEs compared to alternatives Utility score
  • Combine with cost or with cost and risk for effective evaluation of affordability
i caiv output is dynamic craiv 3 d decision space for assessments
I-CAIV Output is Dynamic CRAIV 3-D Decision Space for Assessments
  • Cost and Risk as Independent Variables (CRAIV)
  • 3-D Decision Space Allows User to View All Key Aspects
  • PC-Based Tool Allows Dynamic “What-Ifs” Within Decision Space
  • Full Range of Analysis and Prioritization Data Is Archived in Tool
  • Bring Traceability into the Decision Making Process

MG-99-XXXXFCR1.ppt

slide18

I-CAIV provides “dynamic” 3-D trade space for real-time sensitivity analyses throughout development process

ARCHITECTURE

SYSTEM

ALTERNATIVES

ALTERNATIVES

Architecture

MOEs

vs.

ARCHITECTURE

PRIORITIZED

PRIORITIZED

ALTERNATIVE

MOEs

MOEs

MOEs vs.

Alternatives

Alternatives

ARCHITECTURE

ALTERNATIVE

UTILITY “SCORE”

UTILITY “SCORE”

System

Alternative

Risk

Assessment

Results

Alternative

Cost / R-TOC

Analysis

Results

early decisions impact lcc

Percent Costs Locked In by Early Decisions

Percent Costs Actually Expended

Cost Reduction Opportunities

Early Decisions Impact LCC

Cumulative Percent of LCC

Each mod to a program has a similar curve

Program Milestones

Do we spend our time in the area we have the least cost impact?

If so, is it because it is easier there?

various costing techniques
Various Costing Techniques

MS A

MS C

MS B

Extrapolation (Catalog)

Analogy

(Comparison)

Expert Opinion

Engineering

(Bottom-up, Actuals)

Parametrics

(Cost Function)

Range Estimates

Point Estimates

how much does it cost much more complex answer today

Operations

Savings

via removal of

current systems

Operate

Acquisition

Cost

ROI

Support

Many years

Develop

Production

Dispose

Few years

“How Much Does It Cost ?”Much More Complex Answer Today
slide23

AFI

65-503

Integrated Cost Estimation (ICE)A collaboration of cost tools, models and data

  • Automated cost estimation based on multiple,accepted cost models
  • Provides EMD, production costs, and O&S costs in CAIG format

Other…

User Defined

Parts Obsol

Other…

  • ICE Environment
  • Integrated models
  • Integrated databases
  • Links to other models / data
  • Graphical User Interface
  • “Wizard” to guide user

Other . .

Other…

Excel Import

User Defined

Parts Obsol

User Defined

Excel Import

OSD Facility

User Defined

Excel Import

Parts Obsol

SEER DFM

Excel Import

Parts Obsol

OSD Facility

SAGE

OSD Facility

OSD Facility

PRICE H/S

CORE

SEER O&S

AFTOC

SEER-SEM /H

Relating to Future Systems

Relating to Currently Fielded Systems

Relating to Currently Fielded Systems

For Mods, Enhancements or New Systems

Future

O&S Costs

Future Prod

Costs

Future R&D

Costs

Projected

O&S Savings

Acquisition

Costs

Life Cycle

Cost

Total Return

& Savings

ROIs

BCAs

= Link in Proprietary Models, Models not previously integrated in and ACE-IT outputs

In Work

Excel Import

ice life cycle cost estimates
ICE Life Cycle Cost Estimates
  • ICE is not a cost estimating model
  • ICE is an system for estimating total system costs
  • ICE enables:
    • Technologist to identify high cost systems in their technology niche that may be an opportunity for investment
    • Quick credible LCC (EMD, Production and O&S) and savings estimates
    • Sensitivity analysis on technical issues that are key cost drivers
    • Easily viewable affordability trades to support program justification and “what-if” exercises
    • ROI comparisons against other non-related technology investments.
slide25

FTI Teaches ICETM and Affordability at

Defense Acquisition University

Industry and government partner on cutting-edge, cost-conscious defense education and training programs

SANTA BARBARA, CA - March 19, 2001 - In a recent ceremony at the Pentagon office of Dr. Spiros Pallas, Principal Deputy to the Director, Strategic and Tactical Systems, FTI and the Defense Acquisition University (DAU) signed a letter of intent calling for FTI to provide training to the U.S. Department of Defense workforce in the area of systems acquisition. DAU is the corporate university for acquisition training in the Department of Defense.

FTI has developed and will teach an elective for the Advanced Program Management Course (APMC) on cost estimating for the Defense Systems Management College, one of the in-residence instructional institutions for Defense Acquisition University. In fiscal year 2000, the DAU trained 40,723 students from the Air Force, Army, and Navy. 

The course is based on FTI’s development of a flexible system of integrated cost-analysis software models and data called ICE™, which enables users to estimate life-cycle cost and return on investment. "This new elective course introduces automated tools to replace the more time-consuming process of estimating costs by hand," explained Lavon Jordan, CEO for FTI. "Much of the credit for this training program belongs to Brigadier General Frank Anderson (retired), for his vision in recognizing the need to reduce operating costs and reliably assess system life-cycle costs and affordability before committing funds," Jordan added. Anderson is president of Defense Acquisition University, based in Fort Belvoir, Virginia.

Signing of DAU and FTI Letter of Intent on February 16, 2001.  Seated from far right: Lavon Jordan, CEO, Frontier Technology, Inc.; Frank Anderson, Jr., DAU President; Spiros G. Pallas, Principal Deputy to the Director, Strategic and Tactical Systems, OUSD (AT&L).  Standing from left:  Scoop Cooper, Frontier Technology; Paul McMahon, Director of Strategic Partnerships, DAU; Ron Shroder, Vice-President, Frontier Technology.

afmc is providing infrastructure
AFMC Is Providing Infrastructure
  • Site license PRICE 2002 Enterprise enabled estimating Suite (H/S/M/HL), expires 31 Jan 03
  • Site license SEER-SEM (software) and SEER-H, expires 26 Sep 03
  • Site license IDAPS Cost Estimation (ICE) Tool, expires 19 Sep 03
  • Site license ACEIT, support and maintenance, expires 30 Sep 03

AFMC has not contracted for training. Training for any of these tools must be organizationally funded.

slide27

FTI Supports Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) on LCC and Affordability

  • Industry and government partner on defense education
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA – Dec 20, 2002 – An agreement was reached this month between FTI and AFIT for FTI to assist in training AFIT students in Life Cycle Cost estimating and Affordability Assessments.
  • FTI’s supports AFIT via teaching subsections of 2 AFIT courses which are critical to members of the acquisition community. The courses are:
  • Introduction to Life Cycle Costing (QMT 353) which acquaints students from various functional fields (procurement, cost analysis, engineering, logistics, program management) with the fundamental concept of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) as it applies to the acquisition of systems and sub-systems. FTI’s provides insight via their knowledge from building ICE. Their insight provides links to some of the communities best sources of information to support the acquisition official.
  • Introduction to Affordability in Air Force Science and Technology (QMT 251) which is intended for all scientists and engineers (S&Es), acquisition professionals, and others interested in affordability in S&T.FTI’s knowledge from building I-CAIV provides insight as to the best practices of balancing performance, cost, schedule and risk in an affordability CAIV decision space to build program advocacy.
slide28

ICE Community Involvement and Acceptance

USAF

USN

AFRL Users

  • Pax River
  • Aircraft
  • Information
  • Sensors
  • Human Effect
  • Power Systems
  • Propulsion
  • Manufacturing
  • Materials

MDA / Army

  • MDA / SMDC

AFMC Wide License

And others as appropriate

Logistics Ctr Users

  • OC-ALC
  • WR-ALC

Gov FM communities for

Model Selection

Industry Users

Product Ctr Users

Lockheed Martin

ITT

GE

PW

Rolls

BAE

GD

  • Aging Aircraft
  • Engines SPO
  • FM Staff
  • Devel Planning
  • Special Op Forces
  • Subsystem SPO

Providing O&S data

ICE Users Group

summary
Summary
  • Our commercially available products, known as ICE and I-CAIV, enable affordability to be a key part of the Responsive Space decision process including the creation of the RTOC Standard Business Cases
    • ICE is an integrated environment of the communities’ cost estimating tools that can make it easier to influence decisions by providing immediate insight into ROI
    • It leverages the significant investments in cost estimating tools and data sources
    • ICE can supplement the basic capability with other community databases where appropriate
    • ICE and I-CAIV enables program managers, engineers and scientist to have quick insight into cost estimating and Return on Investment to prioritize the alternatives
  • These Services can be used by Responsive Space leaders to
    • Perform cost estimating and create the business cases (Affordability Assessments)
    • Combine the affordability assessments with performance analysis via Systems Engineering and perform CAIV analysis (Acq Assessments)
    • Assist in working the business cases through the funding process (Acq Assessments)