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5 th N O A A T e stb e ds and Pr o v in g Gr ounds W o rk shop , A p r il 16 -­‐ 18, 2014

I OOS C o as t a l a n d O c e a n M o d e li n g Te s t b e d f o r P u er t o Ric o a n d t h e V i r g i n I s l a n d s.

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5 th N O A A T e stb e ds and Pr o v in g Gr ounds W o rk shop , A p r il 16 -­‐ 18, 2014

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  1. IOOS Coastaland Ocean Modeling Testbedfor Puerto Rico andthe Virgin Islands AndrévanderWesthuysen,JoannesWesterink,JuanGonzalez,JaneSmith,JamieRhome,JesseFeyen,CristinaForbes,JulioMorell,AurelioMercado,JayVeeramony,HughCobb,CarlosAnselmi,ErnestoRodriguez 5thNOAA Testbeds and ProvingGrounds Workshop,April 16-­‐18,2014

  2. Content ObjecFve AcFviFes OperaFonal model requirements Model selecFon Stormcase selecFon Firstresults: Tidal modeling,Wave impacts Conclusions

  3. Objec0ve To extend the presentwave/surge opera0onal forecas0ngcapability frommild-­‐sloped coastal areas such as theUS East and Gulf of Mexico coasts tosteep-­‐slopedareassuch as Caribbean and Pacific islands. IdenFfymodels ortechniques totransiFon to NOAA’s Na0onalHurricane Centerand local WFOs. www.caricoos.org www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo

  4. Ac0vi0es • Phase1:Model,testcaseandmetricselec0on • Define desired operaFonal modelrequirements. • IdenFfycandidatemodels to meet these. • SelecFon and formaYng of testcases. • Definemetrics formodel evaluaFon. • Phase2:Comparisonoverregionalfieldcases • Model evaluaFons overcomplex regional field cases, featuring hurricane meteorological forcing, high-­‐resoluFon topo/bathy,roughness values from benthic maps and rainfall run-­‐off inputs. • Performancecompared:accuracyvs. cost.

  5. Ac0vi0es(2) • 41115 • Phase3:Modelcomparisonoverreeftransects • Detailed cross-­‐reef simulaFons with coupled spectral wave and hydrodynamicmodels. • Results compared with observaFons and phase-­‐resolvingwavemodels. • Rincon,PR • Phase4:Recommenda0onsanddissemina0on • CompilerecommendaFons on advantages/ disadvantages of various modelingapproaches for operaFons. • Facilitate thetransiFon to operaFons at the NaFonal Hurricane Center and WFOs.

  6. Opera0onalmodel requirements • Guidancerequirements set byNaFonal HurricaneProgram • Guidance needed to determinewhich evacua*on zones to order • Systems requirements: • Has to flow through AWIPS in order to be usable • Time (and Fmeliness) is criFcal – order of minutes • Numerical stability is essenFal • Advisories every6 h, butmore frequent special advisories issued if storms change quickly • Physics requirements (from COMT1 and otherwise): • Apply probabilisFc approaches before landfall – determinisFc onlyader landfall • EvacuaFon zones aretypically “chunky” – high-­‐fidelity output lost in operaFonal applicaFon • SLOSH:Use a largermodel domain, improve parametricwind model and addiFon of waves (criFcal overreefs) • Unknown impact of resoluFon and physics overreefs,e.g.: • Importance of submerged reefs in Fde propagaFon • Importance of bed fricFon/percolaFon

  7. Modelselec0on • UND:ADCIRC+SWAN, FUNWAVE • NHC:SLOSH+SWAN • NCEP:ADCIRC+WW3,NWPS • UPR:SELFE+WWMII • NRL:Deld3D+SWAN, TRITON

  8. Storm selec0onforregionalcases Marilyn 1995 Lenny 1999 Hugo 1989 George1998 Isaac2012 Sandy2012 (out of area)

  9. Cross-­‐reef cases(Rincon, PR) DWR Press.Sens. ADCP AWAC (1) Datawell Waverider (33m,2D wave spectrum) NortekAWAC (18m,2D wave spectrum) ) Ocean Sensor Systems Pressure Sensor (6.54m,3.33m) (1) Teledyne SenFnel ADCP (10mchannel)

  10. Tidal modeling: ADCIRC+SWAN Phase Amplitude M2Constituent O1Constituent 10/15

  11. Tidalamplitudes andphases Amplitude Phase M2Constituent O1Constituent

  12. M2Tidal Amplitude Valida0on

  13. M2TidalPhaseValida0on

  14. Impactof waves:SLOSH+SWAN HurricaneGeorge (1998), Cat4,landfall NWS/NHC/SSU Water level (d),atmonly Water level (d),atm+waves

  15. Conclusions Testbed to evaluatewave/surge opera0onal modelingin steep-­‐slopedregions such as the Caribbean and Pacific islands. Features regional-­‐scale and nearshore-­‐scale field cases. To concludewithrecommendaFons for operaFonal environment. Broad parFcipaFon fromacademicand opera0onalcommuni0es,with wide range of surge and wavemodels. Firstresults:AccurateADCIRC0dalresultsthrough Puerto Rico,U.S. Virgin Islands and the LesserAnFlles (notavailable before). Very localized difference of about-­‐0.02mwith the observed M2Fdalamplitude on shelf between PR and theUSVI (interface between (AtlanFc Ocean and Caribbean Sea). M2phases agreewell with observed phases, except alongPR south coast (but observaFons quesFonable). Wave inclusionin SLOSH yields significantwater level increaseat landfall. 6. More informa*on:testbed.sura.org

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