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California Tourism Outlook 2010-2011 Dan MishellDirector, ResearchCalifornia Travel & Tourism Commission October 29, 2010
Mission: To develop and maintain marketing programs in partnership with the state’s travel industry that keep California top-of-mind as a premier travel destination. California Tourism Mission California has over 100 destination marketing organizations, and over 50 tourism business districts. (CTTC, Civitas) CTTC provides a statewide platform for promoting the California brand to leisure travelers.
California’s Leisure Visitors 36 million non-resident leisure person-trips in 2009 $24 billion in spending by non-resident leisure travelers Sources: DK Shifflet & Assoc.; US Dept. of Commerce; CIC Research, Inc., Stats Canada
Domestic Leisure Overview Six primary states account for nearly half of non-resident visits and 1/3 of non-resident spending in California. Sources: DK Shifflet & Assoc.; TNS TravelsAmerica
International Market Overview, 2009 • Mexico Total • 6.3million visitors • $760 million spending Sources: US Dept. of Commerce; CIC Research; Stats Canada; CTTC
California Lodging Inventory Sources: Smith Travel Research
The New Normal Confidence Has Stabilized, but at a Low Level Consumer confidence index Sources: ABC News, Washington Post
The New Normal Recovery Will Proceed at a Tepid Pace % change yr ago except unemployment rate Sources: Moody’s Analytics, BLS, BEA
New Normal – GDP • China and India will remain growth leaders • Economies in Japan and Western Europe will be slower to recover • Australia shows no signs of slowing
The New Normal 1 in 4 Americans spending less, staying with friends &relatives, and driving instead of flying Projected Changes in US Traveler Behavior in Next 12 Months Source: SMARI
TheNew Normal Consumer Trends • Recovery consumers are redefining value in a new era of consequences • Consumers want transparency, trustworthiness and authenticity. • The definition of “luxury” is morphing and now consumers want meaning along with material goods Compiled from: The New Experience of Luxury Synovate 06/10, : PwC The New Consumer Paradigm: Permanent or Fleeting 10/09, Brand Keys 02/10, A Darwinian Tale The Futures Co 11/09
Forecast Overview • Stronger than expected recovery in 2010 to date • Visits will moderate in the second half of the year against headwinds from the economy and comparisons to late 2009 • The economic outlook is marred by uncertainty
CA Hotel Regional Occupancy • Business and international travel are up • Leisure travelers trading up from day to overnight • Gateway • Rural • Other Source: Smith Travel Research
Strong start to 2010… • International arrivals up 14% through June
California Travel Forecast Summary 20102011 Total Visits 4.0% 3.1% Domestic Visits 3.8% 2.9% International Visits 6.2% 5.9% Total Spending 7.4% 5.6% Domestic Spending 6.8% 4.8% International Spending 10.5% 9.0% Source: Tourism Economics
Full Forecast Available Online tourism.visitcalifornia.com/research