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Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology K. Rupa Kumar. Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002. The People. Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) Dr. K. Krishna Kumar Mr. C.M. Mohile Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan

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climate change scenarios for impact assessment

Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

K. Rupa Kumar

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002

the people
The People
  • Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI)
  • Dr. K. Krishna Kumar
  • Mr. C.M. Mohile
  • Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan
  • Dr. P.K. Mishra
  • Dr. G.B. Pant
  • Collaborators/Consultants:
    • Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading
    • Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre
    • Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University
outline
OUTLINE
  • Objectives
  • Research Tasks
  • Observed climate change in India
  • Coupled model projections
  • HadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios
  • HadRM3H installation at IITM
objectives
Objectives
  • Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations for Indian climate
  • Estimation of uncertainties in model-based predictions
  • Development of future climate scenarios for India during the 21st century
  • Preparation of climate change scenario products for impact assessments
research tasks
Research Tasks
  • Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for India
  • Development of climate change scenarios based on HadRM2 experiments
  • Installation of HadRM3H at IITM
  • Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3H
  • Climate change scenario runs with HadRM3H
  • Quantification of key uncertainties
all india mean surface temperatures 1901 2000
All-India Mean Surface Temperatures(1901-2000)

Based on a constant network of 31 stations well-distributed over India

mean annual cycles of observed and simulated all india monthly rainfall surface air temperature
Mean Annual Cycles of Observed and SimulatedAll-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air Temperature
the hadley centre regional climate models hadrm2 hadrm3h
The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3H)
  • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM
  • Formulation identical to HadAM
  • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°
  • One-way nesting
  • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region
  • HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM
hadrm2 scenarios for distribution among impact groups
HadRM2 scenarios for distribution among impact groups
  • Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)
  • Each experiment has 20 years data
  • Monthly and Daily data on various parameters
  • Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid spacing
  • Spatial means for administrative units (other spatial units can be included)
  • One standard CD set of monthly data with basic climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based on impact group’s requirement