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Future Scenarios for Global Warming: Electricity Generation and Emissions from 2003 to 2050

This document explores various scenarios of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions from 2003 to 2050, focusing on electricity generation trends and the impact of emissions from different sectors. It highlights the changes in electricity generation, including the contributions from renewable sources, coal, and gas. The analysis includes emissions trajectories and the importance of innovation in achieving zero-emissions goals by 2050. Furthermore, it outlines the phases of establishing an emissions trading scheme and the collaborative adoption of technologies to mitigate climate change effectively.

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Future Scenarios for Global Warming: Electricity Generation and Emissions from 2003 to 2050

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  1. Climate Change – Global Warming Scenarios

  2. 2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Electricity Generation and Emissionsa 2050 Scenario Greenhouse gasemissions 2003(550 Mt CO2-e) Electricity generation 2050 (TWh) Waste (11) 2030 614 TWh Land use (35) Electricitydemand Agriculture(97) 492 TWh 2020 Industrial (32) Zero emissions electricity generation (500) Primary energy supply (104) Electricity demandwith improvedenergy efficiency Electricity generation 2003 (TWh) 234 TWh Transport(80) Notionalemissionsprofile Hydro (16) Gas (34) 190 Mt CO2-e Brown Coal(50) Electricitygeneration(190) Hydro (19) Gas (24) Black Coal(128) 88 Mt CO2-e Coal (70)

  3. Generation Cost Comparisons

  4. Main Steps in the Innovation Cycle

  5. Global Emissions Trading Scheme

  6. The Emissions Trajectory

  7. The Forward Price Curve

  8. Stream of Permits Sectors not covered (agriculture and land use in this example) Mt CO2-e National Emissions Permits to be auctioned Domestic emissions trading scheme cap Trade-exposed, emissions- intensive industries (existing plants) Allocated free permits Other (non trade-exposed emissions‑intensive) disproportionately affected industries

  9. APP – collaborative adoption of technologies 13

  10. Timeframe • Phase 1 – Foundations – years 0-1 (2007 to 2008) • Finalise scheme design, establish emission reporting systems, determine long term aspirational goal, engage international partners • Phase 2 – Establishment – year 2 (2009) • Pass relevant legislation, establish governance structures (independent regulator and advisory panel), broaden international cooperation (focusing on countries considering emissions trading), rationalise state/territory programmes • Phase 3 – Trading - years 3-4 (2010-2011) • Set short term targets, allocate permits, commence trading in 2011, explore linkages with other countries

  11. Allocation of Permits

  12. Trade Exposed Emissions Intensive

  13. Peter Coates Xstrata Tony Concannon Int Power Russell Higgins APT, RGL Margaret Jackson Qantas Chris Lynch BHP Billiton John Marlay Alumina John Stewart NAB Secretary PM & C Secretary Treasury Secretary Industry Secretary Environment Secretary Foreign Affairs & Trade Emissions Trading ReviewMembers

  14. Exports

  15. Indicative emissions intensity of electricity generation (Figure 3 Page 135)

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