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Bulgarian Climate Change Policy Scenarios: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

Explore Bulgaria's ambitious targets and action plans for reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions while promoting renewable energies. Discover scenarios for both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, analyzing impacts on sectors like energy production and household consumption.

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Bulgarian Climate Change Policy Scenarios: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

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  1. Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre ATHENS

  2. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (1) • Bulgaria is committed to EU 20-20-20 targets: • 20% reduction of primary energy consumption • 20% share of renewable energies • 20% reduction of GHG emissions • Bulgarian Energy Strategy: • 16% share of RES by 2020 (based on 9,6% share in 2005), of which 10% RES in the transport sector • 50% reduction of GDP energy intensity in 2020 compared to 2005 • increase of the energy efficiency by 25% by 2020 ATHENS

  3. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (2) • National Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Bulgaria: • 9% reduction of the energy consumption for the period 2008 – 2016 • includes numerous measures (by sectors) to reach this target • estimates the energy saving effect and costs of the existing and planned measures by 2020 • National Renewable Energy Action Plan: • National 2020 target and estimated trajectory of renewable energy in heating and cooling, electricity, and transport • Includes numerous measures promoting renewable energy development by 2020 ATHENS

  4. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (3) • Third National Action Plan for Climate Change 2013-2020: • 21% reduction of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for the sectors covered by the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) • 20% increase of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for sectors outside ETS • Specifies GHG emission reduction measures and estimates their effects in terms of GHG reduction and cost ATHENS

  5. BULGARIAN ADAPTATION POLICY • There are only few studies assessing the climate change impact on forestry and agriculture • Adaptation needs are stated only generally in the 5th National Communication and 3rd National Action Plan for Climate Change • There are neither anational adaptation strategy nor any planned adaptation measures ATHENS

  6. THREE M/A POLICY SCENARIOS • Business as usual (BAU) • Optimistic (OPT) – ambitious M/A policies • Pessimistic (PES) –M/A policies with average ambitions ATHENS

  7. BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIOAssumptions • The energy intensity of all economic sectors remains unchanged • In households, the energy consumption is proportionate to both the number of households and the average household income • In the energy production, only the planned (as of 31.12.2010) changes are considered – increase of renewable energy capacities, shut down of existing plants, etc • High adaptation needs, but minimum adaptation measures ATHENS

  8. OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOAssumptions • Energy end-use efficiency: until 2020 the measures specified in the 2nd NEEAP (2011); in 2021–2050 additional ambitious EE measures • Gradual improvement of the efficiency of all power plants, except for NPP and HPP, and lower transmission and distribution losses • Change of the energy demand structure: e.g. gradual shift of the transport sector to electricity, reaching 65% electricity in 2050 • Change in the energy production sources’ structure: e.g. quick expansion of renewable energy, slow expansion of the natural gas share, substantial decrease of coal share • Low adaptation needs, but these needs are seriously addressed ATHENS

  9. PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOAssumptions • Additional M/A measures compared to the Business-As-Usual scenario, but less than the Optimistic scenario • The additional measures are limited to the most cost-effective ones ATHENS

  10. BS: ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS ATHENS

  11. BS: final energy consumption by fuel ATHENS

  12. BS: Electricity capacities ATHENS 12

  13. BS: DISTRICT HEATING BY FUEL ATHENS 13

  14. BS – GHG emissions (CO2 eq.) ATHENS 14

  15. Energy consumption in the 3 scenarios ATHENS 15

  16. Electricity capacities in the 3 scenarios ATHENS

  17. GHG emissions in the 3 scenarios ATHENS 17

  18. Scenario evaluation ATHENS 18

  19. AGGREGATE SCORE OF SCENARIOS • OPT has the highest score • BAU has the lowest score ATHENS 19

  20. Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre ATHENS

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