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What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MI PowerPoint Presentation
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Environmental Decision-Making – Does Theology Help? Trinity College Bristol 10 March 2007. What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD. Overview of Presentation Recap on Sustainability

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slide1

Environmental Decision-Making –

Does Theology Help?

Trinity College Bristol

10 March 2007

What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do?

EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng

FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD

Engineered Solutions International

slide2

Overview of Presentation

    • Recap on Sustainability
    • ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’
    • Energy and Climate Change
    • The Energy Hierarchy
    • How is the UK responding?
    • The Severn Barrage
    • Concluding Thoughts

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slide3

1. Recap on Sustainability

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Definition of Sustainability

Some of the best-known (and memorable) definitions of Sustainability are:

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Bruntland Report (1987)

Or even more simply, “We have borrowed the present from our children.”

Old African proverb

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Definition of Sustainability

Improving financial

gains for businesses

and society

The ‘Triple Bottom Line’ Effect

ECONOMIC

Sustain-ability

Reducing negative impacts on environment and health

ENVIRON-

MENTAL

Increasing quality

of life

SOCIETAL

Sustainability Diagram

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2. ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’

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Breakdown of Total UK Energy Usage

Source: Dr Sue Ions, British Nuclear Group (2005)

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Transport

Heat

Electricity

Coverage of UK Energy in Energy Review

Actual split of energy types in UK

‘Coverage’ in the Energy Review

Source: P. Wolfe, REA (2006)

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3. Energy and Climate Change

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Global Primary Energy Use

Global primary energy use, historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in the three cases to 2100, in Gtoe. The insert shows global population growth, 1850 to 1990 and projections to 2100, in billion people. Source: Bos et al., 1992

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Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel (in billions of tonnes of Carbon)

green curve [C] would lead to CO2 stabilisation at ~450 ppmv

Source: World Energy Council (2000)

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Carbon Emissions per Capita

Carbon Emissions per Capita (2000) versus Population

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CO2 Contraction and Convergence

CO2 contraction for 450 ppm and convergence by 2030 to globally equal per capita emissions rights

Source: Global Commons Institute (2003)

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Global Carbon Emissions

Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at

450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq)

Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006)

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Global Carbon Emissions

Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq)

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BAPS SCENARIO EXTRAPOLATED TO 2050

Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006)

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Socolow’s Stabilisation Wedges

Stabilisation triangle includes 7 wedges, each of 25 GtC

Source: Prof Robert Socolow, 2004, Science 305:968-9720)

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4. The Energy Hierarchy

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Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’

1 – Energy Conservation

2 – Energy Efficiency

3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies

4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies

5 – Conventional Energy Supplies

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Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’

1 – Energy Conservation (do not use as much energy)

2 – Energy Efficiency (find more efficient ways of supplying/using energy)

3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies (least environmental impact)

4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies(other GHG-reducing supply sources)

5 – Conventional Energy Supplies (the way we currently do it)

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5. How is the UK responding?

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Power Generation Mix 1990-2005

Source: DUKES (2006)

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Power Generation Mix 1997-2005

Average Annual Change in Mix

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How is the UK responding?

UK’s Self-Sufficiency in Fossil Fuels:

200220102020

Gasnet exporterimport 30%import 80%

Oilnet exportermodest importerlarge importer

Coalnet importerlarge importerlarge importer

Source: PIU Energy Review, February 2002

Does this describe a sustainable situation?

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Overall EU

Belgium

UK

Luxembourg

1997 actual

Netherlands

2010 targets

Ireland

Germany

Greece

EU Member State

Denmark

France

Italy

Spain

Finland

Portugal

Sweden

Austria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Percentage of Total Power

How is the UK responding?

Total Power From Renewables In The EU

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How is the UK responding?

Percentage of UK Electricity from Renewables:

19972010 2020

actualtarget aspiration

UK2%10% (8%) 20% (15%)

SCO10%18% (23%) 40% (>50%)

ENG+WAL 1.8% 9% (7%) 18% (12%)

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How is the UK responding?

Stop Press: 09 March 2007

EU leaders agree to introduce legislation which will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020, just 13 years from now.

Question: by how much has the UK reduced its GHG emissions over the past nearly ten years since this Government has been in office?

Er… they’ve actually increased over that period!

So, how are we going to reverse this trend?

How about a tidal barrage?

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6. The Severn Barrage

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Location

  • Bristol Channel/ Severn Estuary
  • Downstream of Cardiff to Weston-super-Mare
  • 16 km length

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tidal power
Tidal Power
  • The Barrage impounds the tide, then the water is released through a turbine to generate electricity
  • Proven Technology: La Rance in France has generated tidal power reliably for over 35 years

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Barrage Operation

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Barrage Layout (1989 Report)

  • 216 Turbines, 40MW each, 8640MW total
  • 166 Sluices 35,000m2
  • Ship Locks
  • Small Locks
  • Public Road

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Facts and Figures

  • Annual Output 17 TWh (~5% of UK consumption)
  • Installed Capacity 8640 MW
  • Savings of CO2 emissions: 18Mt per year compared to Coal; (equivalent to 3% of total UK Carbon emissions)
  • Renewables Obligation:
    • 15% by 2015 (50-55TWh) - Barrage cannot contribute
    • 20% by 2020 would require a further 17TWh. Barrage could contribute all of this - if sanctioned soon
  • Capital Cost £8bn 1989  ~£14bn 2005 – needs re-estimate
  • Security of supply benefit

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Power Generation (Spring Tide)

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Power Generation (Neap Tide)

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Flexibility of Output

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Environmental Studies 1989

  • A total of 70 studies, with a budget of £2m, covering:
  • Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves)
  • Sediments, Salinity, Water Quality, Drainage
  • Ecology, Birds, Fish

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environmental balance
Environmental Balance ?
  • Loss of the unique harsh environment
  • Some birds may lose habitat
  • Marine life and other birds will increase
  • Flood protection to estuary and rivers
  • Carbon Saving
  • The environmental assessment needs to be updated to account for the changes in the Estuary since the 1980s and also the changes in legislation

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Transport Key Issues

  • Ports and Shipping
    • Forecast Shipping Movements
    • Size of Locks to suit Avonmouth docks
  • Road and Rail
    • Cost-benefit of a Barrage Crossing

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Construction : Prefabricated Caissons

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Caisson Construction Sites

  • 1989 report identified potential UK sites shown
  • Potential Sites in Europe
  • Project and Employment Benefits of using many sites

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Construction Sequence

(1989 Report)

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Turbine Installation

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9m Diameter Bulb Turbine

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employment 1989 report
Employment(1989 report)
  • 200,000 man years for construction
  • 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed over the UK, about half in the Severnside region
  • 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the region

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economics of the project
Economics of the Project
  • Preliminary work in 2005 shows a positive return:
  • carbon credits are necessary
  • - ROCs buyout
  • - ROCs recycle
  • valued by ILEX (April 2005 Central value)
  • external benefits are additional

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cost price relationship

10

9

8

Tax

7

Equity Return

6

Transmission Opex

5

Transmission Capex

4

Barrage Opex

3

Barrage Capex

2

1

0

Cost

ILEX April

Actual

2005 spot

Price

market

7 Dec 05

forecast

Cost – Price relationship

ROC recycle

ROC buyout

Wholesale electricity price

p/kWh

April 2005 money

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value of externalities

Security of supply

1.8

1.6

Increased land &

1.4

property values

1.2

Job creation

1.0

Inward investment

0.8

0.6

Shared grid

0.4

strengthening costs

0.2

Flood damage

0.0

avoidance

Value of Externalities

These indicative values are a key part of the project value

p/kWh

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outline program for implementation
Outline Program for Implementation

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7. Concluding Thoughts

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concluding thoughts
Concluding Thoughts
  • The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects in the UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity from renewables” commitment back on target by 2020
  • The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is not ‘large projects’ versus ‘small projects’ – both will be necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedges
  • Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there are Economic, Environmental and Societal benefits
  • The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable, predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which provides real security of supply
  • If not the Severn Barrage, then what?

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Environmental Decision-Making –

Does Theology Help?

Trinity College Bristol

10 March 2007

What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do?

Thank you for your attention during this presentation

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Sediment Types

Rock & Gravel

Sandy Area

-5m OD Contour Line

Muddy Area

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Main effects of the Barrage

  • Tide Range reduced from 14m to 7m (springs)
    • Smaller inter-tidal area
  • Reduction of Sediment in Suspension
    • Improved water quality
    • Greater ecological productivity

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reduced sediment in suspension
Reduced sediment in suspension
  • Currents will be reduced within Barrage leading to:
  • A large reduction in suspended sediment
  • A more stable seabed
  • Sunlight penetration through the water column
  • An Increase in dissolved oxygen to more normal levels
  • These changes will result in colonisation by a range of estuarine organisms (absent in the existing harsh regime) and an increase in bird species and numbers

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Areas at Risk from Flooding

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flood protection in the severn estuary and rivers
Flood protection in the Severn Estuary and Rivers
  • Flooding in the estuary can occur when extreme high tides coincide with storm surges
  • Flooding in the rivers can occur when these same sea conditions coincide also with high river flows
  • The water level in the basin can be controlled -
    • To prevent the flooding in the estuary (upstream of the barrage)
    • To avoid obstruction to river flow caused by high tides

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use of barrage for flood protection
Use Of Barrage for Flood Protection

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