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The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements. Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University.

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slide1
The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements

Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe,

Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter,

Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb

Laboratory for Atmospheric Research

Washington State University

tomorrow s air quality airpact 3 daily forecast system
Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3 Daily Forecast System
  • MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale meteorological model
  • SMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix Operating Kernal for Emissions processing.
  • CMAQ (4.6): Community Multi-scale Air Quality model:
    • SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry
    • Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes
    • Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species
    • 12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers
    • Forecast to 64 hours daily

PM species

Nitrates

Sulfates

Organic aerosols

Wind-Blown Dust (soon)

PM2.5 total mass

airpact 3 dynamic emissions ic bc
Gridded EmissionsAIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions & IC/BC

2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE)

Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3)

MM5/MCIP Meteorology from UW Weather Forecast System

WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module

Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions (from BlueSky system)

Dynamic Boundary Conditions: spatial & temporal variations from MOZART monthly diurnal average profiles

CMAQ

Daisy-chain Initial Conditions

slide5
Retrospective long term evaluationAug – Nov, 2004(coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program)
  • 8 hr daily maximum O3
  • 24 hr daily maximum PM2.5
  • Speciated PM2.5
mm5 forecast performance results
MM5 forecast performance results

GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme

daily maximum 8 hr ozone results
Daily maximum 8 hr ozone results

P/O vs Observed

Timing errors (running 8 hr means)

bias and error maps for aug sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone
Bias and error maps for Aug-Sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone

Normalized mean bias

Normalized mean error

initial evaluation results
Initial evaluation results
  • Ozone 8 hr daily maxima
    • NMB = 6% and NME = 17%
    • Peak values correctly estimated
  • PM2.5 24 hr daily maxima
    • Daily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3%
    • Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50%
  • Speciated PM2.5
    • Good match with NO3 observations
    • Split decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimated
    • SO4 underestimated
    • OC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with wildfires)
slide13
Enhancements to Airpact-3Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the Forest Service BlueSky System

BlueSky fire locations & size

Predicted PM2.5 from fires

SMOKE emissions processing for CMAQ

enhancement of airpact using satellite data omi aura satellite retrievals and airpact 3 for no2
Enhancement of Airpact using satellite dataOMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2

U.S. retrieval

AIRPACT-3

slide15
OMI (American)

OMI (Dutch)

Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and Airpact

AIRPACT

collaborators acknowledgements
Collaborators & Acknowledgements
  • Collaborating research groups
    • USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin
    • USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill
  • Funding sources
    • NW-Airquest Consortium
    • NASA ROSES Decision Support System grant
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