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What does UKIP’s progress tell us about England?

What does UKIP’s progress tell us about England?. Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ. Ukip support in domestic polls 2010-2014. Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates . Map: Election Data. Top UKIP Scotland results. Moray 13.6%

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What does UKIP’s progress tell us about England?

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  1. What does UKIP’s progress tell us about England? Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ

  2. Ukip support in domestic polls 2010-2014 Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates

  3. Map: Election Data Top UKIP Scotland results Moray 13.6% Dumfries & Galloway 13.5% Falkirk 12.8% Scottish borders 12.4% Highland 12% Orkney Islands 12% Average 10.7% Easily dwarfed by England…

  4. Top 10 Ukip strongholds in 2014

  5. Who isUkip recruiting? • The ‘left behind’; old, white, working-class men with few quals, in heavily white areas, lots of pensioners, Eastern England • Anchored in deep social and value change in Britain, widened since the post-2008 crisis and unlikely to close in near future • Motivated by ‘Brussels-Plus’; anti-EU but also anti-immigration, anti-establishment, and specifically angry over management of immigration and the post-2008 financial crisis • Most are ex-Tories but not simply splinter party! • But key challenges: young, women, EMs, middle-class, tactical votes, the Farage succession and first order elections (!)

  6. Possible scenario #1UKIP TANK External factors • Overcome by majoritarian system in 2015, tactical voting • Fails to secure seats, written-off irrespective of impact • Conservative/Con-led victory as most Cons return to fold • EU referendum briefly revives Ukip, but Eurosceptics lose • Wider generational and social change drains Ukip reservoir Internal factors • Farage succession fails (Knapman and Pearson) • Donors are not forthcoming at general election • Party implodes (as in 1996, 2000, 2004…) • But what evidence do we have?...

  7. Where are Ukip 2014 voters going? • 37% of Con voters who switched to Ukip in 2014 Euros say they will return to Cons in 2015… • But52% say they will stay with Ukip in 2015 • More generally, 64% of all Ukip voters (not just ex-Cons) say they will stay with Ukip in 2015 • Equivalent figure in 2010 was 29%

  8. Possible scenario #2UKIP THRIVE External factors • Ukip win at least one seat in 2015 – certainly possible • Labour re-elected in a fragile state, Cons in disarray • Issue agenda remains highly favourable for Ukip • Referendum shelved, immigration remains high, Lab unable to deliver change • Ukip entrench as main oppin Lab heartlands, similar to EU rad right Internal factors • Farage succession goes well, ‘red/blue kipper’ takes over • Targets voters disillusioned with unpopular Labour government • In 2014 UKIP won popular vote in Rotherham, Rother Valley, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Penistone & Stocksbridge and Great Grimsby • And there is other evidence….

  9. Where Ukip ‘beat’ Labourin 2014

  10. Immigration increasingly key

  11. What data did I use today? • Revolt on the Right – book on the rise of Ukip (2014) British Election Studies since 1964 British Social Attitudes survey since 1983 BES Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 2004-2013 5,593 UKIP intended voters Extensive interviews with activists • Insurgency – forthcoming book on the 2015campaign British Election Study 2014-2015 Interviews with party strategists

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