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(2) Introduction: The Networked Economy 网络经济概述

The Networked Economy: Information Management, Strategy, and Innovation 网络经济 : 信息管理 , 战略 , 和创新. (2) Introduction: The Networked Economy 网络经济概述. The internet began 1969 as project of US military 互联网始创于1969年美国军方项目. The internet and the web 因特网和万维网. 1969: First message exchanged 1969 年：第一次信息交换

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(2) Introduction: The Networked Economy 网络经济概述

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  1. The Networked Economy: Information Management, Strategy, and Innovation网络经济:信息管理, 战略, 和创新 (2) Introduction: The Networked Economy网络经济概述

  2. The internet began 1969 as project of US military互联网始创于1969年美国军方项目

  3. The internet and the web因特网和万维网 • 1969: First message exchanged1969年：第一次信息交换 • Also: First human on Moon (US), Year 3 of Cultural Revolution (China)同时：美国首次登月、中国文化大革命进入第三年 • 1979: US Postal Service rejected e-mail1979年：美国邮政总局拒绝开放电子邮件 • 1989: World Wide Web created at CERN (European physics lab)1989年：万维网诞生于欧洲粒子物理实验室CERN • The World Wide Web (WWW, “the web”) are applications that run on the internet and the data these applications access万维网（简称三W或网络）由互联网上运行的应用程序组成 • 1993: Technology/ First web browser 1993年：出现网络浏览器 • 2003: Business model/ Paid search (“sponsored links”, keyword advertising) takes off 2003年：竞价排名的“付费链接和关键字广告”出现

  4. What is the internet?什么是互联网？ • A very large collection of computers极为庞大的电脑集合 • that are connected to each other所有电脑相互连接 • that follow a common protocol (“speak the same language”)并遵循共同的传输协议（“说同一种语言”) • Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) / Internet Protocol (IP)传输控制协议/互联网协议 • Key concept重要概念 • Packet-switching 数据包交换 • vs circuit-switching 电路交换

  5. Internet adoption compared to other media (in US)比较网络和其它媒体的普及速度（美国） Years to reach 50Musers / households:达到五千万用户／家庭需要几年

  6. E-business vsNasdaq (reflecting expectations of investors and speculators)比较电子商务和纳斯达克(反映投资者与投机者的期望) USDtrillion (approx.)万亿美元 4 3 2 1 (1)-6

  7. Size of e-Business (B2C)估算B2C数量级 • B2C: Business to ConsumerB2C：商业机构对消费者 • Size of e-business 　全球电子商务规模 • 1 billion participants十亿人参与 • On average USD 1k per year per customer平均每人每年消费壹千美元　 • Total = USD1 trillion (1012) per year总计每年十万亿(1012)美元 • Comparable to worldwide IT capital expenses相比于全球IT资本 • GDP China USD 2 trillion / year同时相比于中国每年2万亿美元GDP • Major e-business firms　大型电子商务企业 • Number of customers: 10 – 100 million消费者数量：壹千万至壹亿 • New customers per day: 10k -100k新增消费者：每天壹万至十万 • B2C only small fraction of e-business网上零售仅占电子商务的一小部分 • Wal-Mart: USD 250 billion annual turnover沃尔玛年营业额2500亿美元 • Most of it passes through B2B systems大部分为B2B

  8. Daily rates: Atoms vs Bits 每日数据比较（现实与网络） • Physical world现实世界 • Hotels (US)旅馆（美国） • 1 million bodies in beds / day每天100万人住宿 • Airplanes (US)航空（美国） • 1 million butts in seats / day每天100万人坐飞机 • Taxi cabs (Shanghai)出租车（上海） • 1 million rides / day每天100万人打的 • 1 million “things” per day if atoms involved原子世界的日均数量级为100万 • Digital world网络世界 • Web searches搜索 • 1 billion / day每天10亿 • Emails电邮 • 1 billion / day每天10亿 • Text messages (SMS) in China手机短信（短信服务，仅中国） • 1 billion / day每天10亿 • 1 billion “things” per day if only bits involved 比特世界的日均数量级为10亿

  9. Economies of scale规模经济 • Industrial Age工业时代 • Transport energy传输能量 • Production economies of scale生产型规模经济 • Average price of product drops with increased production产量增加降低单位产品均价 • Supply-side economies of scale供应方规模经济 • Information Age信息时代 • Transport information传输信息 • Network economies of scale网络规模经济 • Network effects网络效应 • Value of network product for a member increases with every new member新增成员使每个成员的网络产品不断增值 • Demand-side economies of scale需求方规模经济

  10. Example: Online travel举例：网上旅游 • Visitors to travel sites (Source: comScore Networks)　旅游网站的访问者 • 62 million unique US visitors clicked on travel sites in October 20042004年10月，有6200万美国人点击进入了旅游网站 • Corresponds to 40 percent of the US online population (150 million users)占美国网民数量（1.5亿）的40% • Popularity of travel-specific search engines grows旅游业特色搜索大受欢迎 • Online travel sales (Source: Jupiter)网上旅游销售额 • Increase about 10% per year预计以每年增幅10% • Regional differences (2007) • US: 30% • Europe: 20% • Asia: 12%

  11. Size of e-business电子商务规模 • Online travel　网上旅游 • Online sales is one third of entire market网上交易占整个市场30% • Online gambling　网上博彩 • USD 6 billion　60亿美元 • Online pornography　网上色情 • USD 2 billion　20亿美元 • Online pharmacies　网上医疗 • USD1 billion　10亿美元 • Online gaming网上游戏 • USD 5 billion50亿美元 • Online dating　网上交友 • USD 1 billion　10亿美元 • Online trading网上交易　 • Features that create addiction为何上瘾 • Interaction互动 • Random rewards随机奖励 • World changes in absence and affects user不上网就不能与时俱进

  12. What is e-business?什么是电子商务？ • E-business uses technology电子商务利用技术 • to communicate 进行交流 • Find, create, aggregate, and deliver information发现、创造、整合或传播信息 • to transact 进行交易 • Buy, sell, trade购买、销售、贸易 • Technology技术 • Internet and mobile communication 互联网和移动通讯

  13. E-business: Innovation and value creation电子商务：创新与价值创造 • Innovation in e-business:电子商务创新思路： • Deliver value to customers 为客户提供价值 • Create value from the behavior of customers从客户行为数据中获取价值 • Areas of innovation 创新的领域 • Product development产品开发 • Marketing市场营销 • Market research市场调研 • Examples of value creation价值创造的范例 • Create, find and discover knowledge创造、寻找和发现知识 • Deliver digital goods传递数字商品 • Customize and personalize客户定制与个性化 • New pricing mechanisms新的定价机制

  14. Scale: Reach and Speed规模：范围与速度 • Scale: Opportunity and threat 规模：机遇与威胁 • E.g., viral marketing 毒品交易 • Reach 范围 • Speed速度 • Need to create barriers to entry (e.g., lock-in)需要制造进入壁垒（如客户锁定） • Designing system for scalability is important 设计可测量系统十分必要 EB technology电子商务技术(communication, connectivity, …)（传输、连接等……）

  15. Appendix附录 • Roles in e-business and value creation 电子商务和价值创造中的角色 • Ingredients of e-business电子商务的组成要素 • Online strategies for traditional offline stores传统线下商店的网络战略 • Jeff Bezos’sSeven Myths (2000)Jeff Bezos的七个神话（2000）

  16. A. Some roles in e-business电子商务中的各种角色 • Information producers信息制造者 • Information organizers, gatherers信息组织者、聚合者 • Information consumers, buyers 信息消费者,买家 • Platform providers平台提供者 • Markets市场 • Games游戏 • ISP (Internet Service Providers)ISP 网络服务接入商 • Advertisers广告主 • Publishers广告发布商 • Providing space on website for ads在网站上提供广告空间 • Analytics companies数据分析公司 • Search engine optimization 搜索引擎最优化 • Site analytics 网站数据分析

  17. Basic questions to evaluate a business model设计盈利模式需回答的问题 • How is the firm generating value for its customers?公司如何为客户创造价值？ • What is different about the internet?互联网有何不同？ • Where do revenues come from?收入来自何处？ • Who pays for what value and when?谁会为何种价值而付费？何时支付？ • What are the margins in each market?每个市场的利润是多少？ • Are the revenue sources different with the internet compared to without it?收入来源是否因互联网的有无而不同？

  18. Revenues收入 • Sales 销售 • Products产品 • Services服务 • Information信息 • Trends and analytics趋势和分析数据 • Consumer data消费者信息 • Technology and tools技术和工具 • Sell 销售 • License 特许 • Outsource外包 • Fees 费用 • Sales commissions, referral fees销售佣金，介绍费 • Transaction fees交易费 • Membership fees会员费 • Subscription订阅费 • Advertising广告 • Paid search竞价排名 • Measure ROI测量投资收益率 • “Advertising = fuel of Internet economy”广告是网络经济的动力 • Individual 个体 • Situation 情形

  19. Value created for customers为客户创造价值 • Rich product information提供丰富的产品内容 • Enable transactions　促成交易 • Services (payment, fulfillment)　服务，尤其是支付服务（和履约） • Data collection and analysis收集/分析数据 • Transaction processing处理交易 • Marketing市场营销 • Including campaign management活动管理 • Platforms, e.g., for services平台（比如服务平台） • “Mechanical Turk” by Amazon.com亚马逊网站上的“土耳其机器人” • Intermediation vs Disintermediation 中介与非中介 • Intermediate中介 • Aggregator集成商 • Infomediary信息中介 • Market maker造市商 • Disintermediate非中介 • Enable direct sales via Web通过网络直接销售

  20. B. Ingredients of EB　电子商务要素 • Some ingredients of EB 电子商务的组成要素 • Search　搜索 • Pricing　定价 • Logistics　物流 • Payment　支付 • Product representation　产品展示 • Authentication and security　验证及安全 • Dispute resolution　争端解决 • Some EB technologies and tools 电子商务相关技术及工具

  21. 1. Search搜索 • Use additional information sources in algorithm 算法中需使用额外信息 • Connectivity of web pages (link structure) 网页的连接（链接结构） • Current location of user (geo-location)用户的当前位置 • Search-history of user 用户的搜索历史 • Past: Information scarce　过去：信息稀缺 • Present: Information abundant　现在：信息丰富 •  • Need for search　需要搜索 •  • Need for ranking (by relevance)　需要排序（关联度） • Web search engines 搜索引擎 • E.g., Google, Baidu. Sogul如：Google、百度，搜狗 • Vertical search 垂直搜索 • E.g., Travel, Product comparison…如：旅游，商品比价搜索

  22. 2. Pricing定价 • Variety of pricing mechanisms不同的定价机制 • Fixed prices固定价格 • Dynamic pricing动态定价 • Based on inventory 基于存货 • Based on competition基于竞争对手 • Price-discovery价格发现 • Auctions 竞拍 • Exchanges (similar to financial markets)交易所定价（类似金融市场） • Buyer-set price买方定价 • “You name the price” – Priceline.com

  23. 3. Logistics物流 • Information products: 信息产品： • Delivery is easy because product is digital 产品以数字形式存在则物流简便 • Storage is easy存储简便 • Physical products:实物产品： • Better coordination with suppliers to reduce inventory加强与供应商合作以减少库存 • Outsource inventory外包库存（如亚马逊） • Shift inventory risk to supplier向供应商转移库存风险 • Note: Physical goods need physical delivery 注：实物产品总要依赖实际的递送服务

  24. Nr of packages per day (millions)包裹数量/天（百万） 网上零售包裹增长 传统渠道居民包裹＝2.33M (1999) Majority of shipments to homes are e-business送货上门：大都源自电子商务

  25. 4. Payment　支付 • Credit and debit cards信用卡和借记卡 • Main payment method in US美国目前主要的支付方法 • Direct payment between parties using web and email (e.g., PayPal, AliPay)买卖方之间通过网络和电邮直接支付（如贝宝、阿里巴巴支付宝） • e-Cash (stored value cards)电子货币（储值卡） • Mobile phone payments手机支付 • Charge on delivery (COD)货到付款

  26. 5. Product representation产品展示 • How are product attributes communicated? 如何展示产品特点？ • The Web has its strengths…网络优点 • Great for information, especially standardized 有利于信息传递，特别是标准化信息 • … but of course also its weaknesses: It is a rather limited medium 网络作为媒介尚有局限 • Limited for multimedia (bandwidth) 不利于多媒体传输（带宽） • Impossible for touch, taste, smell 不可触摸、品尝、嗅闻 • Problems with limited product representation产品展示不充分导致： • Misinformation 误传 • Misunderstandings误会 • Mistrust 猜疑

  27. 6. Authentication, Legitimization 验证交易合法 • Validity of transacting parties and of exchanged goods确认交易各方和交易商品有效性 • Reliability　可靠性 • Quality　质量 • People-intensive solution人工验证 • Alibaba trust-pass: Visit seller and verify阿里巴巴诚信通 • Technological solution技术解决方案 • Public-key cryptography　公钥密码 • Reputation, rating, reviews　名誉、评级、评论 • Experts　通过专家 (Gomez、消费者报告) • Community　通过社区 (epinions, eBay, Openratings.com) • When is a transaction considered valid? 什么情况下交易是有效的？ • Does a sale go through at the mouse click or only after the processing?点击鼠标时即完成销售还是待订单处理完毕？

  28. 7. Dispute resolution　争端解决 • Legal issues法律问题 • What happens in disputes between buyer and seller? 买卖双方发生争端怎么办？ • In particular, at intermediaries like eBay?尤其是通过eBay等网络中介完成的交易？ • International bodies for dispute resolution?国际争端解决机构

  29. C. Adding online capabilities to an offline “brick and mortar” business增加非网络实体企业的网络能力 • Benefits for bricks and mortar retailers 给传统零售商所能带来的利益 • Improved inventory turnover改善库存周转 • Capture data in addition to point of sales data 增加销量 • New customer acquisition opportunities through the web获取新客户 • Target promotions and pricing 有针对性的推广和定价 • Test market new products and offers 新产品和服务的试销 • What is limiting traditional retailers from going online? 限制传统零售商发展网上业务的因素？ • Potential channel conflicts with physical stores 与实体商店的潜在渠道冲突 • Technology too complicated and/or risk 技术的复杂性（风险性） • Expected Return on Investment (ROI) is not worth it投资回报率不够高 • Product inappropriate for online sale 产品不适合网上销售

  30. Some rules for the design of an online retail store 设计网上零售店 • Design a great landing page (“window”): 设计一个漂亮的登录页面（“窗口”）： • 30-second rule: You have very little time to convince a customer to stay 30秒规则:你留住顾客的时间十分有限　 • Low switching cost into your site , but also out of your site转换到你的网站的成本低 • Keep it simple (avoid clutter) 简洁为主（避免信息乱杂） • Keep it fast (limited bandwidth)保持较快的访问速度（带宽有限） • Design landing page to depend on time of day, on geography, on user’s past behavior依据时间地点和网民的浏览习惯设计登录界面 • Teach, don’t push教育，而不是推销 • Customers expect more information online消费者户希望在网上获得更多信息 • Standardize site实现网站的标准化 • Provide uniform look, and consistent navigation scheme across site网站内要求有统一的外观、统一的导航方式 • Create cognitive lock-in to increase switching costs away from your site 建立认知锁定，从而提高客户离开网站的转换成本 • Help customers in shopping process 在消费者购物过程中提供帮助 • Value added information增值信息 • Objective (e.g., comparisons) 客观（如：比较） • Subjective (e.g., reviews by other customers)主观（如：其他消费者的评论） • Enable customers to share消费者可以交流分享

  31. What is important to online customers?网络消费者看重什么？ • Larger selection (broader choice if items), and availability更多的选择,是否有货 • Lower prices低价 • Why possible?为什么可能？ • US: Most online retailers do not have to charge sales tax (V.A.T.)大多数美国在线零售商不用缴纳销售增值税 • Higher efficiency due to view into supply chain透明供应链大幅提高效率 • Convenience便利 • Note trade-off between time vs price 时间率与价格的平衡 • Typical visit with one purchase: About 10 minutes, viewing about 10 pages通常一次购买：历时约10分钟需浏览约10张网页 • Transparency透明 • Immediate order confirmation and status checking即时订单确认和状态追踪

  32. What is important online to men, to women?网上男女有别 在选择从网上零售商购买产品时， 下列因素的重要性如何？ 男士 女士 最关心的因素及比例(%): 支付安全 个人信息及隐私保障 网上订购的便洁性 送货成本 搜索产品的便捷性 便宜 网站和供应商的经验 朋友/同事的建议 零售商的网下供货情况 资料来源:Forrester 欧洲网上商场的调查资料

  33. People research online before buying offline人们在网下购物前会上网查询 你在过去3个月中做过下面的任何事情吗 进行过网上研究和网下购买 进行过网上购买 进行网上研究后进行网下购买的人与进行网上购买的人之比 书籍 音乐 活动门票 休闲旅游 VCD/DVD 服装 电脑硬件 电脑游戏 汽车 电脑软件 资料来源:Forrester 欧洲网上商场的调查资料

  34. Online’s influence to offline substantially higher than online spending*受网上查询影响的网下消费要远高于网上消费* * Excludes cars不包括汽车 10亿 (in billions) $700 $600 $130 $500 $104 $400 $83 $64 $300 $48 $498 $418 $200 $34 $346 $24 $282 $226 $100 $177 $139 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Online-influenced spending Online spending 受网上影响的消费 网上消费 Source: Jupiter Internet Shopping Model, 4/01 (US only)

  35. D. Jeff Bezos’s Seven Myths about the Internet杰夫·贝佐斯破解互联网七大神话 • Seven Myths about the Internet互联网七大神话 • Jeff Bezos, CEO and founder of Amazon.com杰夫·贝佐斯，亚马逊网站创始人及CEO • From speech given at Harvard Business School Cyberposium on 26 February 2000摘自2000年2月26日于哈佛商学院网络研讨会的演讲

  36. Myth #1　神话之一 • The Internet changes everything.互联网改变了一切 • Not really, according to Bezos, since human beings like things certain ways, no matter how much the technology advances. For instance, physical stores aren't going away any more than movie theaters did with the advent of television. "People like to go outside and get together with others," Bezos observed. Since bricks-and-mortar operations can't compete with e-commerce on price, however, they'll focus on other things, such as making shopping a more entertaining experience.贝佐斯认为，并非完全如此，因为不管技术如何进步，人们对有些事有特定偏好。正如电视时代的到来并未导致多少电影院关门大吉，许多商家实实在在的门面店铺也不会因为有了虚拟购物环境就会消失。贝佐斯说：“人们总是喜欢外出，喜欢与他人在一起。”现实购物环境中的店铺虽无法在价格上与电子商务网站竞争，但可以专攻其他方面，比如营造出令人愉悦的购物环境和体验。

  37. Myth #2　神话之二 • There are no barriers to entry on the Internet.互联网不存在入市壁垒 • If that's the case, asked Bezos, how do you explain the fact that Amazon.com and other e-commerce companies are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in their businesses. The fact of the matter is, the barriers to entry on the Internet are high and getting higher in the face of technological developments that will make today's online stores seem quaint at best in the next five to ten years.贝佐斯质疑道，如果真是这样，那如何解释亚马逊和很多电子商务公司在业务上投入上亿美元的资金？事实是，互联网的进入壁垒很高，且这一壁垒只会越来越高，因为技术进步日新月异，再过5到10年今天购物网站的概念就会不合时宜。

  38. Myth #3　神话之三 • Intermediaries are dead.中介从此消失 • Intermediaries are a fact of life to some degree, Bezos asserted. The litmus test will be who adds value and who doesn't. Those that don't will be "toast." 贝佐斯认为，在一定程度上，中介是客观存在的。问题的关键是看哪些中介能够提供增值，哪些不能。不能增值的中介将淘汰出局。 • Aggregators (vertical search engines, e.g., travel)信息汇总网站（纵向搜索引擎，如旅游网站）

  39. Myth #4神话之四 • There are going to be only a few winners in the Internet economy.互联网经济中赢家总占少数 • Bezos doesn't believe that one for a second. "The world of e-commerce will be as richly varied as the physical world, probably more so," he said, "because more business models are possible online." But that doesn't mean that success is in the cards for everyone, he cautioned. 贝佐斯从不这么认为：“电子商务世界将与现实世界一样极具多样性，且可能有过之而无不及，因为网络可能产生更多的商业模式。”他同时也警告说，这并非意味着人人都能成功。 • Platform平台

  40. Myth #5　神话之五 • It‘s easy for bricks-and-mortar retailers to extend their business. 传统非网络零售商能轻易利用互联网拓展业务 • Forget about it, said Bezos. It's an easy trap for people to fall into, he explained, because they reason that a store is a store, whether it's physical or on line. Not so. Take books, for example. Online sellers are essentially in the technology business; off-line operations are in the real estate business. One group deals mainly with variable costs, the other with fixed costs. Below the superficial similarities, the differences run deep.贝佐斯说，千万小心，别陷入这样的误区。很多人认为不管是实际存在的，还是网上虚拟的，店铺总是店铺。但事实并非如此。拿图书销售为例。根本而言，网上书商从事的是技术行业，而非网络书商则属于不动产行业。其中一方主要处理可变成本，另一方则处理固定成本。虽然两者表面类似，但实际上差异巨大。

  41. Myth #6神话之六 • Current market leaders can‘t fail.目前的市场领跑者会一直风光 • If they take their eyes off the customer, just watch them, said Bezos. In addition, many business pioneers were good at risk taking until they became successful and had something to lose. Then they fell off the leading edge and never recovered.贝佐斯认为，如果他们不再关注客户的话，那就等着看他们的下场吧。而且，许多创业者在初期总是敢于冒险，但一旦成功或者到了一定规模以后就开始左顾右盼。他们会就此失去领先优势，从此一蹶不振。

  42. Myth #7　神话之七 • Every company needs an Internet strategy.每家公司都需要互联网战略 • Not. "The Internet is an enabling horizontal layer that is causing broad disruptions across a big part of the economy, but it's not for every industry," Bezos concluded. "Yet you see people making business decisions based on the Internet, even where it doesn't belong.”并非如此！“互联网的确具有一定跨行业的通用意义，能影响大部分经济领域，但并非适用于所有行业。” 但贝佐斯也认为：“即使与互联网毫不相干，你会看到人们还是能利用互联网制定商业决策。”

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