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POLS4985 Nation-building. Who am I?. Dr. Gregory C. Dixon Specialty – International Relations Areas of interest / research: International Institutions Conflict Management Globalization and Global Governance. Office Hours and Contact. Office: Pafford 125 Office Hours:

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who am i
Who am I?
  • Dr. Gregory C. Dixon
  • Specialty – International Relations
  • Areas of interest / research:
    • International Institutions
    • Conflict Management
    • Globalization and Global Governance
office hours and contact
Office Hours and Contact
  • Office: Pafford 125
  • Office Hours:
    • Before class (aprox 11:30 – class)
    • After class (as needed)
    • and by appointment
  • Email: gdixon@westga.edu
online content
Online Content
  • http://www.westga.edu/~gdixon
    • Under “current courses” pick POLS4506
  • CourseDen
    • All course information
    • Electronic Submission of Assignments
learning outcomes
Learning Outcomes
  • Analyze the role of nation-building in the contemporary international system
  • Assess the types of nation-building efforts undertaken by both the international community and by individual nations
  • Assess the minimum resource requirements for a providing the conditions for successful nation-building
  • Appraise the challenges to nation-building
  • Appraise conditions for success in nation-building efforts
  • Assess the potential for nation building as part of an effort to reduce conflict in the world of the 21st century.
assignments
Assignments
  • Commentary Papers (4)25% each
commentary papers
Commentary Papers
  • 10 questions
    • You must answer 4 questions
    • You may answer 5 and drop the lowest score
  • Answers should be 3 - 4 single spaced pages
grading
Grading
  • 90% and up = A
  • 80 – 89% = B
  • 70 – 79% = C
  • 60 – 69% = D
  • 59% and below = F
  • No curves or mathematical adjustments will be applied to the grades
assumption of adulthood
Assumption of Adulthood
  • All students are assumed to be adults
  • You are expected to familiarize yourself with the requirements of the course
  • You are expected to meet the requirements of the course
  • It is expected that you will do the required reading for the course.
  • It is expected that you will complete all required assignments.
class participation
Class Participation
  • Daily discussion
  • Discussion will be based on the discussion questions
late or missed assignments
Late or Missed Assignments
  • Late assignments will suffer a penalty of one letter grade for each business day late
  • The commentary papers are take-home, so extensions will be extremely rare
  • Absolutely no extensions will be given for the final commentary paper due date
special needs
Special Needs
  • Students with special needs as identified by the University will be accommodated in accordance with University policy
attendance
Attendance
  • Attendance will not be taken and is not required as part of the course grade
  • Attendance is vital
  • Missing lectures may significantly reduce their chances of passing the course
  • It is the responsibility of the student to get the notes from that day of class from another student in the class
acts of the gods
Acts of the Gods
  • On very rare occasions truly terrible things happen
  • If such an event happens, don't wait until the last day of the class to deal with it
email communication privacy
Email Communication & Privacy
  • Nothing related to grades, exams, or any other course information specific to a student will be discussed via regular email - period
  • Grades and related information will only be discussed via one of these methods:
    • In person during office hours or after class
    • Via the CourseDen email system
classroom decorum
Classroom Decorum
  • Please arrive on time
  • Please turn off any device that makes noise
  • Please do not read the newspaper, sleep, etc. during the class time
  • Mutual respect and politeness is required in the classroom at all times
  • Violations of appropriate classroom decorum will result in penalties
academic honesty
Academic Honesty
  • All students are required to be aware of the University rules regarding academic honesty.
  • Cheating, fabrication, and/or plagiarism of any kind will not be tolerated.
  • Any student caught committing any violation of the Honor Code on any assignment will receive an F in the course and will be reported to the University for further action as per University policy
  • The professor reserves the right to seek the harshest possible penalty for any and all violations regardless of the value of the individual assignment
academic honesty1
Academic Honesty
  • If you are unsure as to what constitutes academic dishonesty, please consult the University of West Georgia Student Handbook
  • Ignorance of the Code will not be accepted as an excuse for violations of it
  • Many things which are perfectly acceptable in high school are considered cheating in college
  • If you have a question about cheating, ask, don’t just assume that you are ok
nationbuilding

Nationbuilding

Basic Concepts and Frameworks

what is nation building
What is Nation-Building?
  • The basic subject of the course sounds simple
  • Nation + Building
    • Building the basic infrastructure of a functioning state
problems of definition
Problems of Definition
  • There are lots of terms used
    • Nation-building
    • State-building
    • Stability Operations
    • Etc.
  • We will not split hairs in this course
potential nation building cases
Potential Nation-Building Cases
  • Cases where NB is a policy option
    • Post-conflict
    • Post-disaster (natural or man-made)
    • Failed states
    • Fragile states
  • Each case offers challenges
who nation builds
Who Nation-Builds?
  • Nation States
  • IGO’s
  • NGO’s
  • MNC’s
  • Coalitions of some or all of the above
nb is not new
NB Is Not New
  • Pharonic Egypt used NB 5,000+ years ago
  • The US has engaged in NB efforts since the late 1800’s
nb is not mysterious
NB Is Not Mysterious
  • The basics are widely known
  • We will cover them in this class
  • The world community knows how to engage in successful NB efforts
the structure of the course
The Structure of the Course
  • Start conceptual
    • Paris and Sisk
  • Broaden the model
    • Ghani and Lockhart
  • From theory to application
    • Dobbins, et al.
challenges
Challenges
  • Applying specific logic broadly
    • Can we apply ideas across models?
    • How do the theories fit our cases?
  • Moving from theory to practice
    • Ideas are fun, but you need to make them work if they are to matter
there is no rabbit
There Is No Rabbit
  • At the end of the class, there will be no resolution of your questions
  • You will know more about the subject
  • You will probably have more questions than when you started
  • But it will be fun anyway…
what s a nation why are we building one

What’s A Nation & Why Are We Building One?

The Nation-State in the 21st Century

the nation state
The Nation-State
  • Combination of two concepts
    • Nation
      • A group of people with a shared identity
    • State
      • A geographic space ruled by a central governing authority
nation state characteristics
Nation-State Characteristics
  • Geographically fixed location
  • Recognized government
  • Sovereignty
  • Monopoly on the use of force within boundaries
  • Population is made up of people with a “national identity”
sovereignty
Sovereignty
  • No outside authority can force a state to act
  • A foundation of international law
    • Enshrined in the UN Charter
reality check
Reality Check
  • Most states loosely fit the definition
  • Many nation-states do not fully fit the description
    • Identity conflict is a leading cause of civil war
    • Secessionist movements are common
    • Some nations lack effective government
building a nation state
Building A Nation-State
  • NB seeks to construct functioning nation-states
  • Functioning does not equal perfect
central problems
Central Problems
  • How can an outside power build a truly sovereign state?
  • And why would they?
a second reality check
A Second Reality Check
  • The world is complicated
  • There are many actors in the NB process
  • These actors interact with one another
  • Their interactions affect the outcome
  • Not everyone likes order
herding cats
Herding Cats
  • Intervenors are not unitary
    • Policy makers
    • Policy implementers
    • Political supporters in the homeland
    • Various interest groups
herding cats1
Herding Cats
  • States targeted for NB are not unitary
  • All actors seek advantage
    • Local elites use the intervenor to their advantage
    • Intervenor ignorance makes it worse
    • Not all actors want effective government
      • Conflict can be beneficial
      • Sides may prefer conflict to peace
spoiler alert
Spoiler Alert
  • Spoilers may seek to foil NB efforts
    • Groups want a better deal
    • Groups fear marginalization in new order
    • Groups fear prosecution or worse in new order
    • Power may be lost in a new system
the problem
The Problem
  • Building a nation-state requires support from many actors
  • Some will never accept the new order
good enough solutions
Good Enough Solutions
  • You will never get perfection
    • It’s the real world
    • Your perfection is not everyone’s perfection
  • You need to settle for “good enough”
    • Good enough governance to keep people content to support the new order
what is good enough
What Is Good Enough?
  • Physical security
  • Food
  • Basic stability / predictability
  • Rule of law
  • The right economic direction
  • Hope
getting to good enough
Getting to Good Enough
  • Local leaders
  • Local institutions
  • Local participation
  • Local economic development
  • All of which will be built by outsiders
nobody likes an outsider

Nobody Likes An Outsider

The problem of external intervenors

the other problem
The “Other” Problem
  • Humans separate “in” and “out” groups
  • We do not easily trust those who are from the out group
  • This is a factor of biology
nb requires outside intervention
NB Requires Outside Intervention
  • The intervenor will always be an outsider
  • This will generate tension and make the job harder
difficulty factor
Difficulty Factor
  • The degree of difficulty for the intervenor varies
    • Nature of intervention effort
    • Historic context
    • Cultural context
    • Various other identity factors
uncontrollable elements
Uncontrollable Elements
  • History
  • Identity
  • Geography
controllable elements
Controllable Elements
  • Resources
  • Communication
  • Preparation
control what can be controlled
Control What Can Be Controlled
  • Effective preparation can mitigate the problems of being an outsider
  • Transparency can make a significant impact
local knowledge
Local Knowledge
  • Successful NB efforts requires local knowledge
    • Knowing the context
    • Speaking the language
    • Knowing who matters
  • Local knowledge can be developed or rented
    • Renting has risks
gaining support
Gaining Support
  • There is a window of 12 – 18 months to build goodwill
  • Effective early action helps overcome the outsider problem
  • Competence goes a long way
  • Respecting local issues goes a long way
local talent
Local Talent
  • Find and recruit local talent
  • “the native face” problem
  • Intercultural problems must be overcome
  • Balance of external plan and local input
  • Incorporation of key groups
transition
Transition
  • Planned transfer from outsider to locals
  • This is very hard to manage
  • Hard to balance
    • Outsider imposes a system that must become entrenched
    • Locals must be given enough power to promote acceptance
    • Locals may not like the new system
balance
Balance
  • You cannot eliminate the outsider problem
  • You can reduce its impact with good planning
  • The trick is to balance a wide range of elements in a very complex process
safety first

Safety First

Establish security or go home

security
Security
  • Basic safety from harm is a necessary foundation
  • NB must provide security in order to be successful
  • This is the foundation on which the rest of the NB actions are built
components of security
Components of Security
  • Peacekeeping / Peace enforcement
  • Law enforcement / civil order
  • Creation or reform of local security institutions
    • Training of military
    • Training of law enforcement
    • Provision of basic security during training
peacekeeping
Peacekeeping
  • The sides in a conflict have made peace
  • NB effort is in support of this peace
  • Most or all sides have ceased fighting
  • This makes it easier to accomplish
    • Can reform rather than create institutions
    • Fewer troops are needed
peace enforcement
Peace Enforcement
  • You are imposing peace in the NB effort
  • Most or all sides are still fighting
  • Security is harder to achieve
    • NB must create the local forces
    • NB must create security institutions
    • This requires many more soldiers
timing
Timing
  • Security cannot wait
  • It must be established immediately in order to be effective
  • Delay give opponents time to organize
  • Delay undermines credibility
force size and composition
Force Size and Composition
  • You need enough people or you will fail
  • If you do not have the personnel you cannot provide the services
numbers
Numbers
  • Soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants:
    • Peacetime, stable state: .5
    • Peacekeeping: 2
    • Peace enforcement: 13
  • Afghanistan: 24,000,000 people in 2001
    • 312,000 minimum force for peace enforcement
the footprint problem
The Footprint Problem
  • You need enough troops to do the job
  • A strong presence of outsider troops can lead to resentment
  • NB efforts must have enough troops, but they must tread carefully
force composition
Force Composition
  • Soldiers
  • Engineers
  • Trainers (military, police, judiciary, etc.)
  • Bureaucrats / administrators
  • Community relations personnel
duration problem
Duration Problem
  • Local forces need to be trained rapidly
  • Ineffective local forces feed problems
  • The longer the transition to local policing takes, the more likely resistance will grow
the security problem
The Security Problem
  • Costs are high, so military forces are likely to be under-resourced
  • This potentially undermines missions before they start
  • Most militaries are not intended to be police forces
it s the economy stupid

It’s the Economy, Stupid

The political economy of NB

markets
Markets
  • The market always functions
    • Exchange takes place
    • People make money
    • People lose money
  • Markets adapt
  • Conditions create incentives for action or inaction
complex influence of markets
Complex Influence of Markets
  • Economic conditions in the NB target state
  • Economic conditions in the intervenor
  • Global market conditions
  • Each of these is constantly changing
target state
Target State
  • Pre-NB economic foundations
    • Natural resources
    • Workforce composition
    • Size of population
    • Geographic location
    • Reason NB is necessary
  • This provides the starting point
the intervenor
The Intervenor
  • Size of economy
  • Diversity of economy
  • Workforce composition
  • Distance from NB target
  • Economic interest in NB target
global economy
Global Economy
  • NB target place in global economy
    • Foundation
    • Potential
  • Intervenor place in global economy
  • Overall market conditions
the status quo ante
The Status Quo Ante
  • Conditions when NB starts matter
    • State of economic infrastructure
    • Size and scope of informal economy
    • Integration of armed groups into economic activity
    • Economic history / tradition
immediate problems
Immediate Problems
  • Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
  • Economic stability
  • Economic growth
  • Economic development
the peril of great expectations
The Peril of Great Expectations
  • Time to get economy working is greater than the golden window
  • Markets must shift to the new reality
  • This takes time
  • Transition costs are high
    • Someone must pay them
dependence
Dependence
  • Short-term support by intervenor can easily lead to dependence
  • NB requires massive intervention through central planning
  • Central planning is not good at economic growth
  • The balance is hard to strike
basic conditions for success
Basic Conditions for Success
  • Civil order
  • Rule of law
  • Financial / banking system
  • Reasonable security of infrastructure
    • Road, rail, and water transport
    • Electricity
the perverse incentive problem
The Perverse Incentive Problem
  • Failed states are profitable for the few
  • These few often have trouble in the transition
    • Skill set is wrong for stable economy
    • Social conditioning may also be wrong
  • These groups have an economic incentive to undermine NB efforts
development challenge
Development Challenge
  • Outside actors have a poor success rate in economic development
  • NB requires the hope of economic progress to succeed
  • NB efforts can also lead to dependence
  • Mistakes will shift the market in unwanted directions
what works
What Works?
  • No simple solutions
  • Depends on the conditions in each case
  • All NB efforts must craft economic plans based on the specific conditions of the target
designing institutions

Designing Institutions

Who, what, where, when, and how

what is mean by institutions
What Is Mean By Institutions?
  • The basic structure of the new government
  • Electoral rules and basic delineation of core functions (executive, legislative, etc.)
  • Organization of bureaucratic responsibility
why democracy
Why Democracy?
  • We like democracy
    • The people will have a significant say in government
    • Democracies are less war-prone
    • Democracies have better economic growth over time
    • We assume everyone wants to be like the West if only given the chance
designing a constitution
Designing A Constitution
  • Lots of kinds of democracies to choose from
  • The constitution should fit two key elements:
    • The nature of the state it will govern
    • The goals of the intervenor
majoritarian or consensus
Majoritarian or Consensus?
  • Majoritarian: Whoever has 50% + 1 wins
    • Decisive
    • Focused
    • Risks majority tyranny
    • No incentive for small groups to support it
majoritarian or consensus1
Majoritarian or Consensus?
  • Consensus: very large coalitions needed to rule
    • Inclusive
    • Tend to respect minority rights
    • Slow to act
    • Can be frustrating to watch in action
presidential or parliamentary
Presidential or Parliamentary?
  • Presidential
    • Separation of powers
    • Focus popular attention on one person
    • Potential for divided government
  • Parliamentary
    • Unity of executive and legislative powers
    • Focus is on party leaders
electoral systems
Electoral Systems
  • Plurality
    • Most votes wins
    • May or may not need 50% + 1
    • Fixed terms
electoral systems1
Electoral Systems
  • Proportional Representation
    • Parties get seats based on votes
    • Coalitions are often needed to rule
    • Term of office can end with “no confidence” vote
centrality vs federalism
Centrality vs. Federalism
  • Centrality
    • Focus of governing is in central government
    • National government dominates
  • Federalism
    • Regions have varying degree of flexibility in governing
    • Balance between central and local power
no easy solution
No Easy Solution
  • All these elements and more are combined to make a constitution
  • These elements set how a country is ruled
  • All have consequences
  • All require a choice by the intervenor
the dependency problem

The Dependency Problem

Leaving without things falling apart afterwards

the nation builder s curse
The Nation-builder’s Curse
  • You have to remake a state that can stand on its own
  • Then you must leave it alone
  • Its like being a parent, only worse
the dependence problem
The Dependence Problem
  • The NB effort builds a nation that depends on the intervenor to work
  • The intervenor leaves and the state fails
  • In the worst case, the intervenor can’t leave without rapid return to fighting
  • Dependence is very hard to avoid
the basic problem
The Basic Problem
  • Intervenor must do a lot early on
    • This distorts local conditions
  • Locals must gradually take control
    • How?
    • When?
    • What if they fail at first?
    • Who decides what failure is?
assessing the dependence risk
Assessing the Dependence Risk
  • How much do you have to build?
    • Solid past institutions makes it easier
      • Better foundation on which to build
      • Trained locals to turn to
      • Institutions can be reformed
    • Weak past institutions makes it harder
      • You must build from scratch
      • You must train technocrats
the skill deficit
The Skill Deficit
  • Running a country is hard
  • You need the right skills
    • Managerial
    • Engineering
    • Etc.
  • These can be hard to find
brain drain problem
Brain Drain Problem
  • The best and brightest have the easiest time leaving
    • Globalization means they can find work elsewhere
    • Safety and security may make them reluctant to return
  • This will apply even after NB efforts are underway
material dependence
Material Dependence
  • Infrastructure development is expensive
  • Requires a tax base and effective collection mechanism
    • Both are likely to be missing when NB starts
    • Both take time to put in place
  • Local resources may or may not be readily available
material dependence1
Material Dependence
  • Intervenor will foot the bill early on
  • May require many years of bankrolling the effort
    • Infrastructure is expensive
    • Some projects are long-term
organizational dependence
Organizational Dependence
  • Intervenor will control the country
    • Security
    • Governance
    • Potentially even through control of the legal system
  • This can lead to the institutionalization of dependence
freedom to fail again
Freedom to Fail (Again)
  • Ultimately power must transition to the local people
  • This means the power to make real decisions, and suffer consequences
  • The potential is there for a return to failure
perverse incentives
Perverse Incentives
  • Local elites may profit from intervenor’s governance
  • They may not want power to return to the locals
  • They have an incentive to prevent the transition
dependence is tricky
Dependence is Tricky
  • Managing the dependence problem is hard to do
  • The intervenor must balance many different elements at once
  • The intervenor must be willing to risk exit
its not all about conflict

Its Not All About Conflict

The problem of state failure

fragility and failure
Fragility and Failure
  • Many states do not fit the normal nation-state model
    • The rule of law is weak
    • The writ of government does not run
    • Institutions do not provide “good enough” governance
the turbulence problem
The Turbulence Problem
  • Globalization binds us together in a global system
  • Events far away send ripples out that can affect us
  • There are millions of these events every day
  • The result is a “turbulence” in the international system
turbulence and the state
Turbulence and the State
  • States must deal with pressure from two levels:
    • Domestic
    • Systemic
  • The pressure from both directions is constant
  • Some states break under the pressure
state fragility
State Fragility
  • States whose institutions are under stress
  • States that are losing the ability to function
state failure
State Failure
  • The state ceases to function
    • Civil war
    • Collapse
who cares
Who Cares?
  • We do – state failure affects us
  • Fragile states generate more turbulence
  • Failed states generate lots of turbulence
slide114
Strong domestic institutions reduce conflict

Absorb and resolve domestic conflicts

Generate coherent policy outcomes

Strong domestic institutions prevent international conflict

slide115
Fragile institutions cannot manage domestic conflicts

A spillover effect emerges

Domestic conflict bubbles out

International system feels the impact

slide116
Failed institutions permit all manner of problems to cross borders

Create significant disruptions in the international system

Defy easy solutions

rational self interest
Rational Self-Interest
  • State failure has a wide impact
  • Effective nation-building can reduce this impace
what makes a failed state

What Makes A Failed State?

Defining state capacity and governance in the 21st Century

understanding governance
Understanding Governance
  • Governance = the ability of the state to manage its internal affairs
  • This is a key role of state institutions
  • But this can be defined many ways
    • Economic growth
    • Rule of law
    • Etc.
the sovereignty gap
The “Sovereignty Gap”
  • We assume states are sovereign in many ways
    • International law
    • Diplomacy
  • Roughly 1 in 6 states is not
    • “extreme” or “high” fragility
the sovereignty gap1
The “Sovereignty Gap”
  • Our language and assumptions do not reflect reality
post wwii paradigm
Post WWII Paradigm
  • There is a global governance architecture to tackle the sovereignty gap
    • Decolonization was going to create this
    • US planned for it in post WWII planning
    • IMF, IBRD, UN, GATT
structural functionalism
Structural Functionalism
  • Theory of Development
    • Build the right institutional structure and all will be well
    • Universal incentives exist
    • Institutions will drive these
  • At their core, all states are the same
    • One size fits all
state building in decolonization
State-Building in Decolonization
  • Help states set up institutions
  • Provide development assistance
  • The rest takes care of itself
  • This has a mixed record of success
post cold war changes
Post-Cold War Changes
  • Shift away from the development models of the 1950’s
  • Shift to more “holistic” approach
    • Multifaceted programs
    • Emphasis on implementation, not just institutions
    • Recognition of failure of one size fits all
nb in context
NB In Context
  • NB fits this broader effort
  • The idea is to construct the institutions of the state in a more general sense
building governance
Building Governance
  • We agree governance is necessary
  • The details are subject to debate
    • No agreed “best” system of governance
    • No single “best” system is possible
  • This is an ongoing debate
what to build
What To Build?
  • Not all agree on the extend of NB efforts
    • Minimalist
    • Maximalist
  • What are the essential functions of the state?
the global governance dimension

The Global Governance Dimension

International capacity for NB

basic challenges for gg
Basic Challenges for GG
  • Sovereignty
  • Cooperation
  • Coordination
  • Resource Allocation
  • Information
  • Capacity Building
global governance architecture
Global Governance Architecture
  • The mechanisms to provide governance beyond the nation state
    • Formal: IGO’s, treaties, etc.
    • Informal: NGO’s, cultural ties, etc.
igo s
IGO’s
  • Solve a coordination problem
    • Fixed institutions for making collective decisions
    • Facilitate collective action
  • Solve a cooperation problem
    • Information sharing
    • Education
global
Global
  • Cover the whole world
  • Large membership
  • More resources
  • More calls on resources
  • UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO, etc.
regional
Regional
  • Local knowledge
  • Build local consensus
  • Greater legitimacy
  • Fewer resources
  • Credibility
  • AU, ECOWAS, SADC, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, etc.
ngo s
NGO’s
  • All shapes and sizes
  • Specialized
  • Credibility
  • Bagage
sovereignty1
Sovereignty
  • States yield sovereignty via IGO’s
    • Binding commitments
    • Enforcement mechanisms
  • International Law allows violations of sovereignty
    • Genocide
    • Violation of preemptory norms
cooperation
Cooperation
  • GG provides channels of communication
    • Reduce uncertainty
    • Build working relationships
    • Develop shared interest in “the system”
  • Norm diffusion
    • GG extends norms and permits a shared language
  • Simplify cooperation
coordination
Coordination
  • Channels of operation
    • SOP’s
    • Agreed upon rules
    • Burden sharing
  • Legitimacy
  • Responsibility
resource allocation
Resource Allocation
  • Varies widely depending on GG constellation
  • Share burden across states
  • Provide a structure of cost sharing
  • Generate revenues from non-participants
  • Coordinate flows to NGO’s
information
Information
  • Best Practices
  • Shared experience
  • Reduced learning curve
  • Promote broader understanding of key issues
    • Identification of issues
    • Share information on past cases
capacity building
Capacity Building
  • Training of forces
  • Training of administrators
  • Training of policy staff
  • Promote skill development in local, regional, and international areas
  • NGO, IGO, state responses
gg in practice
GG in Practice
  • It’s a mess
  • The system works spottily as it stands
  • Things are improving, but slowly
what works1

What Works?

The requirements for NB today

post wwii context
Post WWII Context
  • Over 100 peacekeeping / stabilization missions
  • Dozens of NB missions
  • 6 decades of international development efforts
  • Extensive study of domestic institutions
  • Extensive efforts by IGO’s and NGO’s
nb is not a mystery
NB Is Not A Mystery
  • The loose parameters of success are known
  • The problem has come with implementation
problem example
Problem Example
  • No nation has more experience with post conflict NB in Muslim states than the US
  • By the measure of the original goals Iraq and Afghanistan have been failures
lessons from conflict studies
Lessons From Conflict Studies
  • The Frozen Conflict Problem
  • The Barney Fife Problem
  • The Hurting Stalemate
  • “Ripeness”
frozen conflicts
Frozen Conflicts
  • NB intervention does not end a conflict
  • The conflict ceases due to the presence of the intervenor
  • NB efforts fail to deal with underlying tensions
  • Conflict will resume when intervenor leaves
the barney fife problem
The Barney Fife Problem
  • Intervenor mean well
  • But are not competent
  • Create unnecessary tension
  • Lack direction in their efforts
  • The intervenor means well, but can’t follow through
hurting stalemates
Hurting Stalemates
  • Allowing a conflict to drag on may make NB efforts easier
  • Hurting stalemates demonstrate that neither side can win
  • Sides are more willing to accept outside help in resolving the issue
  • Promote peacekeeping-type NB
ripeness
Ripeness
  • “Ripeness” is the concept of optimal moments
    • Most or all parties see a benefit to and end to conflict
    • International attention is high
    • Domestic circumstances in intervenor favors planning and resource allocation
complexity
Complexity
  • Many things contribute to NB success
  • Much of the effort is about controlling what can be controlled
    • Planning for “known unknowns”
    • Bracing for “unknown unknowns”
  • Recognizing that the danger is from the storm within
knowing is half the battle
Knowing is Half the Battle
  • We know what is necessary
  • We know that the resources are sometimes there to do it
  • We know that the hard part is political will
  • Now, how do we make it work?
basic security
Basic Security
  • Short window to establish order
  • Forces needed vary, but are usually military
    • In unusual cases, police and paramilitary forces may work
  • Keep order on a day to day basis for the general population
boots on the ground
Boots on the Ground
  • To provide security you need a physical presence
    • Personnel that can be seen
    • Rapid response to disruptions
  • Sufficient number are key
    • Lack of numbers forces inconsistent action
    • You cannot keep order without manpower
planning
Planning
  • Basic parameters
    • Geographic constraints
    • Logistic constraints
    • Nature of mission
  • Force composition
    • Numbers
    • Types
    • Equipment
combat phases
Combat Phases
  • Suppression of military forces in the initial stages
  • May include traditional combat or asymmetric combat
  • May or may not have a clear end
  • Requires military units
  • May not be required in all cases
public security
Public Security
  • Immediate establishment of basic protections of the general population
  • Deterrence of violations of order
    • Requires a physical presence
  • Ounce of prevention = pound of cure
    • Early success eases later phases
  • Difficulty depends on conditions
slide160
DDR
  • Disarmament
  • Demobilization
    • Can be tricky depending on other conditions
  • Reintegration
    • Key to long-term success
intelligence gathering
Intelligence Gathering
  • Information must be gathered on the real conditions on the ground
    • Requires an honest assessment
    • May require abandoning older plans
  • Requires development of a local network
civic engagement
Civic Engagement
  • Engage the local population in decision making
  • Identification of key local players
  • Integration of military and reconstruction efforts
security institution building
Security Institution Building
  • Reform or construction of basic security institutions
  • In most cases, this is a complex process
  • Extent depends on the nature of the NB effort
  • Is part of an integrated institution-building effort (courts, admin, etc.)
necessary but not sufficient
Necessary but not Sufficient
  • Basic security is required for success, but it does not guarantee it
  • Failure to provide security generally leads to failure
establishing broad security

Establishing Broad Security

Police forces, predictability, and the rule of law

long term security
Long-Term Security
  • Military forces are a short-term solution
  • Long-term requires development of indigenous sources of security
  • Police, legal system, effective governance institutions
  • This is a significant challenge for NB efforts
interdependence
Interdependence
  • Security institution efforts are part of the larger institution-building effort
  • Progress in other areas is necessary for security
  • Progress in security is necessary for other areas
public security1
Public Security
  • Intervenor provides early on
    • Usually with military forces
    • Supplemented by intervenor police, paramilitary forces, or PMC’s
  • Transition to indigenous forces requires reform or creation of institutions
  • Transition will take time
challenges1
Challenges
  • Vetting
  • Training
  • Equipment
  • Institutional Development / Reform
  • Ties to broader legal system
  • Ties to broader institutions
vetting
Vetting
  • Sorting through the existing institutions and personnel
  • Establishing vetting standards
    • Who cannot join the new forces?
    • Who will lead them?
      • Local
      • National
training
Training
  • Establishing training standards
    • Requires link to legal institutions
    • Requires building of training infrastructure
    • Often initially done by expatriates
    • Need to train indigenous trainers
    • Need to train indigenous leaders
equipment
Equipment
  • What sort of equipment?
    • Type of gear
    • Sufficient gear for the job
  • Who pays?
  • Infrastructure
    • Physical
    • Institutional
institutional development
Institutional Development
  • Reform or Deconstruct?
    • Reform – change the existing institutions
    • Deconstruct – wipe out existing institutions
  • Focus on mission
    • Civil order and public safety
  • Link between institutions – interagency cooperation
ties to legal system
Ties to Legal System
  • Public order requires a judicial system
    • Rule of law
    • Equality before the law
    • Sufficient infrastructure
  • Police reform and legal reform must be managed in parallel
ties to broader system
Ties to Broader System
  • Public order is part of larger system
  • Success adds credibility to larger reforms
  • Failure feeds resistance and raises likelihood of failure
  • The institutional efforts are mutually dependent
long term holistic view
Long-Term, Holistic View
  • Development of institutions takes time
  • Development of indigenous institutions requires a long-term commitment
  • Public order cannot be separated from other efforts
  • Patience is virtuous, but can also breed dependence
governance

Governance

Who is in charge? and do they have a plan?

teaching them to fish

Teaching Them To Fish

Economic development and the foundation for the future

assessing cases

Assessing Cases

Sierra Leone and Afghanistan

numbers1
Numbers
  • Population: about 6 million
    • 78,000 troops required for peace enforcement
    • 18,000 for peacekeeping
  • Geography
    • Good trading location
    • Extractive industries dominate
nutshell version
Nutshell Version
  • Post-colonial state with standard problems
  • State fragility emerged in the late 1980’s
  • Domestic efforts to reverse decline failed
private peace building efforts
Private Peace-building Efforts
  • MNC’s in mining industry hire PSC’s for basis security
  • Government hires PSC’s to train its army and civil militias
  • MNC’s support PSC involvement
failure of private efforts
Failure of Private Efforts
  • Coordination problem leads to failure
  • Parties pursue narrow interest
    • Mining MNC’s want basic security, but like rents derived from government
    • Government sought revenues for patronage
    • Local leaders sought local advantage
    • PSC’s focused on contract obligations
1996 peace accords
1996 Peace Accords
  • All foreign forces to leave
  • Rebels and government to negotiate a power-sharing arrangement
  • Nigerian support (via ECOWAS) for government
  • Accords never implemented due to 1997 coup
from fragility to failure
From Fragility to Failure
  • Civil war tears the state apart
  • Coups and counter coups change those in charge
    • Army colludes with rebels
    • Civil militias form alternate military structure
  • ECOWAS intervenes (ECOMOG)
ecomog
ECOMOG
  • ECOWAS forces deployed to restore order
    • Largely fail in initial efforts
    • Stalemate emerges
    • Forces were substantial (20,000) but poorly equipped
a bloody mess
A Bloody Mess
  • Civil war stalemates with sides holding different areas
  • Mineral wealth used to fund rebels
  • Liberia supports rebels
  • Coup government allied with rebels
  • ECOWAS supports recognized government, but not coup leaders
lome accord
Lome Accord
  • All sides agree to deal
  • End to fighting
  • Power sharing in new government
  • Enforcement by UN peacekeepers (UNAMSIL)
    • 13,000 troops at peak
british intervention
British Intervention
  • Lome fails utterly
  • UNAMSIL personnel captured and killed by RUF
  • British send expeditionary force to evacuate EU citizens (about 1,000 troops)
from evacuation to nb
From Evacuation to NB
  • British commander decides decisive action could end conflict
  • Lobbies UK government to allow expansion of mission
  • Blair agrees to limited expansion of UK role
ending the conflict
Ending the Conflict
  • UK forces take on training and support role
    • Dismantle old army
    • Build a completely new force with British training
    • Begin aggressive action against RUF
  • Decisive action when challenged
  • Took the war “into the bush”
end result
End Result
  • Peace restored in Sierra Leone
  • Retrained army is a national force
  • State-building efforts continue
  • UN forces have withdrawn as of 2005
numbers2
Numbers
  • Population 30 million
    • 390,000 for peace enforcement
    • 90,000 for peacekeeping
  • Geography
    • Landlocked, weak infrastructure
    • Few resources, but great potential for extractive industry
civil war
Civil War
  • 1973 coup begins long civil war
  • 1978 Communist coup
  • 1979 Soviet invasion
  • 1989 Soviet withdrawal
  • 1996 Taliban take Kabul
  • 2002 US intervention ousts Taliban, establishes interim government
2010 troop levels
2010 Troop Levels
  • 94,000 US troops
  • 35,000 allied troops (total)
  • Total force of 129,000