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Foreign R&D in China: Drivers, Dynamics, and New Directions. Prepared for the Conference on “Global R&D in China” Nanjing, PRC May 27-30, 2005. by Kathleen A. Walsh Consultant. Evolution of Foreign High-Tech R&D in China. Drivers Dynamics
Foreign R&D in China: Drivers, Dynamics, and New Directions Prepared for the Conference on “Global R&D in China” Nanjing, PRC May 27-30, 2005 by Kathleen A. Walsh Consultant
Evolution of Foreign High-Tech R&D in China • Drivers • Dynamics • Strategies (PRC and Foreign Investors’) • Implications
Official Figures Show a Steady Rise in Foreign R&D in China US DOC PRCG PRCG PRCG PRCG
Rise in China R&D Appears Tied to IT Industry Boom … and Bust Year 1st R&D facility announced Source: Stimson Center Study (2003)
There Have Been Several Distinct Stages of Foreign R&D in China Exploratory & Strategic Partnerships 1990 Expansion 1995 Consolidation 2000 Explosion ? 2005 Source: Stimson Center Study (2003)
Evolution of Foreign R&D in China Phase 1 ~ late 1980s–mid/late-1990s • Exploratory and Strategic Partnerships • Sino-Foreign Joint Ventures • University Partnerships • “Show R&D” Stokes’ Matrix Deliberate Use N Y Bohr’s Quadrant Pasteur’s Quadrant Y Quest for Fundamental Understanding? ? Edison’s Quadrant N
Evolution of Foreign R&D in China Phase 2 ~ mid- to late 1990s • Expansion • Contract R&D / outsourcing – particularly to universities • Training centers added • “Go West” emphasis and incentives • Product development: localization, upgrades, & system and standards integration Note: Took place during IT Industry boom; pre-WTO
Evolution of Foreign R&D in China Phase 3 ~ late 1990s-early 2000s • Consolidation • WFOEs – more centralized facilities • More advanced R&D objectives – moving toward “R” v “D” • Closer relations with parent company • MNC concerns over increasing costs Note: Took place during IT Industry bust; post-WTO entry
Evolution of Foreign R&D in China Phase 4 ~ 2003-2005 + • Explosion (?) • Rising numbers of R&D investments gaining attention of PRCG and others … leads to interest in more statistics being gathered • PRC and MNCs seeking new ways to exploit commercial R&D in China • Rising cross-regional R&D collaboration, with China serving as hub • Concerns grow over funding for basic R&D
Implications for the Future • China’s current foreign R&D investment trajectory is likely to remain positive, but it’s slope is dependent on several factors: • Absence of a significant political / economic disruption • Continued high economic growth rates • Continued high levels of FDI to allow greater focus on basic R&D funding • China’s Western development strategy
Implications for the Future Phase 5 ? ~ 2005-2010 • China achieves 2.0 % of R&D/GDP by 2010 • “Go West” campaign resurges • East Asian R&D consortium emerges as competitive force • Greater levels and advanced forms of Chinese R&D appear overseas • Increased emphasis on civil-military integration causes concerns abroad • China gains recognition for innovation; wins first Nobel Prize