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  1. KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS AND IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The University of Adelaide Dinner Presentation to Institute of Public Administration Australia National Roundtable Series Meeting on Sustainable Population Strategy – Public Policy and Implementation Challenges Canberra 11th April 2011

  2. Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Myths and Population Dynamics • Global Trends and Drivers • Australian Population Issues • Developing a Way Forward • Conclusion

  3. Exploding Myths About Population • Population is dynamic, always changing, but the change is gradual which means it often escapes the attention of policy makers • Population is influenced by economic changes but not purely a function of them • Some population change is structural – inevitable and predictable – provides some certainties in looking to the future • Population is amenable to policy intervention

  4. Global Population Situation • Current global population 6,892 million • Current annual increase rate 1.2% compared to 2.1% in 1969 • World Total Fertility Rate 4.8 in 1965-70, 2.5 in 2010 • World Life Expectancy at Birth 56 in 1965-70, 69 in 2010 • Percent in MDCs, 32.1 in 1950, 17.9 in 2010 and 13.9 in 2050 • Percent Urban, 28.8 in 1950, 50.5 in 2010 • Projected Global Population in 2050 – 9,149 million

  5. World Population: Time to Add Successive Billions in World Population, 1800 to 2050Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

  6. Some Key Demographic Elements in Future Global Population Change • Ageing • The youth bulge • China and India • The Migration and Development Debate • Climate Change

  7. “Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing”Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005

  8. Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency RatesSource: World Bank, 2006

  9. Structural Ageing:MDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

  10. Structural Ageing:LDCs: Change by Age: 2010 – 2020; 2030Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

  11. Demographic Impacts of Fertility Decline • Ageing • The youth bulge and the demographic dividend

  12. The Middle East Youth Bulge • 1970-2007, 80% of outbreaks of violence in countries where 60% or more aged under 30 • 60% of region’s population aged under 30 • 20% of Egyptians aged 15-24 • Exacerbated in urban areas

  13. Source: Gosh, B. 2011, Rage, Rap and Revolution, Time, February 28, p.25

  14. The Youth Bulge(Westley and Cho, 2002, 57) “…is the result of a transition from high to low fertility about 15 years earlier. The youth bulge consists of large numbers of young adolescents and young adults who were born when fertility was high followed by declining numbers of children born after fertility declined”

  15. World Regions: Share of Population in Working Ages, Actual, 1950-2005 and Projected, 2010-2050Source: United Nations 2007

  16. Impacts of the Youth Bulge • The demographic dividend impact on the economy • Accounts for a fifth of China’s economic growth in 1990s (Mason, 2004) • Potential for political unrest (Fuller and Hoch, 1998) • Potential for increased population mobility

  17. The “demographic dividend” delivered through 3 mechanisms… • Labour supply – the numbers available to work are larger. Also women are more likely to enter the workforce as family size decreases, hence, since the Asian youth bulge is associated with low fertility, female workforce participation is likely to be high while the young and the old consume more than they produce. • Savings – younger working age people tend to have a higher level of output and also a higher level of savings. • Human capital investments – with smaller numbers of children and cultural changes there will be greater investment in education, health, etc. Hence, primary and secondary enrolment ratios are increased.

  18. Impacts of Current Youth Bulge Exacerbated by … • Disproportionate concentration in cities • First generation with universal education • First generation growing up with the internet and global communications

  19. The Demographic Giants:India and ChinaSource: United Nations 2009 and 2010

  20. China and India: Age and Sex Structure of the Population, 2010Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database

  21. Key Demographic Issues • Ageing – especially China • Workforce challenges • Gender imbalance • International migration – strong policy intervention • Internal population distribution • Climate change

  22. International Migration and Development • Brain drain issues • Remittances • Diaspora impacts – new significance • Role of policy

  23. Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing EconomiesSource: World Bank, 2010

  24. National diasporas in relation to resident national populationsSource: US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India,; Naseem, 1998; Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Philippines Overseas Employment Service; Asian Migration News, 15-31 January 2006; OECD database on immigrants and expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005;

  25. Role of Policy • Origins - remittances - engagement of diaspora - return • Destination - A development friendly immigration policy?

  26. Climate Change and Population • Coincidence of demographic and climate change hotspots • Linkages with migration

  27. Population and Climate Change

  28. Hotspots of Climate Change Impact Within the Asia Pacific • Coastal areas are vulnerable to inundation and the effect of storm surges associated with sea level rise (McGranahan et al., 2007). • River valleys and deltas (Ericson et al., 2006) will be influenced by increased riparian flooding. • Low lying island states, especially atolls, are at risk from the effects of sea level rise, surface warming and extreme weather events (Barnett and Adger, 2003). • Semi-arid and low humidity areas where drought and availability of water are already problematic are likely to experience an exacerbation of those water shortage problems. • Some other areas likely to be impacted by extreme weather events.

  29. Asian Megacities at RiskSource: ADB 2009, 17

  30. Differences in Population in the LECZ by Global Region, 2000Source:McGranahan et al., 2007

  31. Contemporary Dynamics of Australian Population • Growth – Mortality, Fertility and Migration • Composition • Distribution • Projections

  32. Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source:ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2009 and 2010; ABS 2010

  33. Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2010Source: ABS 1996 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

  34. Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2009Source:Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females 1947 66.1 70.6 2009 79.3 83.9

  35. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2009Source: ABS

  36. Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2009Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

  37. Australia: Permanent and Temporary Components of Net Overseas Migration, 1983-2010Source:DIMIA Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics, DIAC Immigration Update and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues

  38. Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data

  39. Baby Boomers 2006 • 27.5% of Australian Population • 41.8% of Australian Workforce

  40. A Distinct Population Distribution • 87% living in urban areas • 64% living in capital cities • 81% living 50 km from coast

  41. Changing Population DistributionShifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, 1861-2010Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004, 2011

  42. Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009 (mm/10years)Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010

  43. Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006

  44. Projecting the Population • Different to prediction • ABS does every 3 years • Assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration

  45. ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008

  46. Structural Ageing:Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)Source: ABS 2008 Projections

  47. Australia’s Population Dilemma • On the one hand there is a need to grow the population because - A replacement task – 42% of the present workforce are baby boomers - Net increases in demand for labour • On the other there are substantial environmental constraints which will be exacerbated by climate change

  48. Australia: Population by Selected Ages, 2010Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population Data

  49. Addressing Ageing • There are no silver bullets – no single policy intervention will counteract the effects of ageing • Introduction of a number of strategies involving Productivity, Participation and Population is essential • To be most effective they need to be introduced well before the ageing “crunch”. Planning is crucial. • Demographically Australia is better placed than any OECD country to effectively cope with ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy intervention now

  50. Rethinking Australia’s Settlement System • Most Australians will continue to live in capital cities and developing more sustainable large metropolitan areas is an important national priority • However we must also consider to what extent our settlement system is the most efficient for the Twenty First Century and do the science to see whether modification of the settlement system would be advisable and possible