Cost Estimate Management, Cost Trends and Long Range Estimates for Turnpike Enterprise / FICE Estimates Training

1. Cost Estimate Management, Cost Trends andLong Range Estimatesfor Turnpike Enterprise / FICEEstimates Training Dale Stanley FDOT Estimating Systems Support Manager (850) 414-4197 SC 994-4197 dale.stanley@dot.state.fl.us

2. Topics • Part 1: • Cost Estimate Management • Cost Trends • Communication • Part 2: • Estimating Systems • LRE Update

3. Part 1 Cost Estimate Management and Cost Trends

4. Cost EstimateManagement • Means controlling scope of work and design parameters to stay within the construction cost budget • Cost Estimates Task Team:“TheProject Scope of Work should be well defined early in project development. Significant scope changes should be approved by upper management.”

5. Cost EstimateManagement • There may be times when changes are necessary, but cost managementinvolves knowing the cost impact of these changes. • We can’t expect to add work to a project without increasing the cost!

6. Cost EstimateManagement • Cost Estimates Task Team:“Estimates should NEVER be artificially constrainedto stay within budget.”

7. UpdatingBudget Estimates • In many cases, cost estimates are not updated frequently enough to reflect the latest scope of work until Phase III plans, when the pay items and quantities are available. • Cost Estimates Task Team: “Estimates should be updated at every project phase and at least every six months, whether or not final quantities are available.”

8. UpdatingBudget Estimates • Performance and Quality measures are based on the estimates at: • Initial entry into the Work Program • Scope development • Phase 2, 30% Plans stage • Official Estimate Estimates MUST be updated at each of these milestones !!

9. Communication

10. Communication • Cost Estimate Task Team:“The Districts should foster a culture that requires a close working relationship between project consultants, project managers and estimators to ensure the project features are accurately reflected in the estimate.”

11. What Happens When the Estimator Isn’t Informed?

12. What Happens When the Estimator Isn’t Informed?

13. Consequences of Bad Estimates • What happens if we underestimate? • Projects may have to be moved out. • Related activities (R/W, Utilities) will be affected. • What happens if we overestimate? • Production limits are not achieved. • Public lack of confidence – we could have done more with the money we had.

14. Recent Cost Trends

15. 44.0% 38.5% 75.0% Recent Cost Trends(Annual Averages) • Asphalt • Jan-Dec 2003 $53.93/ton • Jan-Dec 2005 $77.66/ton • Concrete (Structural) • Jan-Dec 2003 $549.82/CY • Jan-Dec 2005 $761.71/CY • Steel (Reinforcing) • Jan-Dec 2003 $.52/LB • Jan-Dec 2005 $0.91/LB Figures based on Weighted Averages

16. $85.38 $51.60 +20.1% Rising Asphalt Costsby Quarter

17. $1,045.14 $490.02 +64.2% Rising Concrete Costsby Quarter

18. $1.28 $0.53 +48.8% Rising Steel Costsby Quarter

19. Causes forMajor Cost Increases • Construction market saturation: • “Hot” Market, both public and private sector • Labor and equipment shortages, due to hurricane recovery efforts • Material shortages • Fuel cost increases • Project requirements: • Hours of operation • Night work • Delayed start

20. Part 2 Estimating Systems and LRE Update

21. Estimating Systems • Long Range Estimates (LRE) • Budget, 5-Year Work Program • Conceptual, prior to 60% Plans • FDOT developed – “First in the Nation” • TRNS*PORT • Quantities based on complete Design • Department’s Official Estimate • AASHTO owned – developed by Infotech

22. Pay Item Definitions & Prices Budget $$ Project Data Pay Item Definitions LAS TRNS*PORT CES Project Data Pay Items, Quantities & Unit Prices Systems Interaction

23. LRE Price Update

24. Price Update Process • Update occurs each month • Uses 1 year of bid history • Uses all bidders • New prices will appear on newly created projects • Existing projects must be “refreshed” for new prices • Blocked projects and locked pay item prices are not affected by price refresh.

25. Price Refresh Utilitiesavailable to LRE Coordinators • Refresh Project Prices - allows individual, unblocked projects to be refreshed • Mass Refresh of Project Prices – allows all unblocked projects within a District to be refreshed • Mass Refresh of Selected Pay Items – allows selected pay item prices to be refreshed on all unblocked projects within a District.

26. Lock Price Featuresavailable to LRE Coordinators • Reset and/or Lock default county prices on individual pay items • Lock individual pay item prices within a project

27. This price should be reset Reset / Lock Default Prices Feature

28. Lock Project Prices Feature

29. Consultant Designers and Pricing • Pricing LRE projects is usually done by the District Estimates Office, but each District has its own policy regarding pricing requirements. • Make sure you know what your District requires!

30. Upcoming Enhancements

31. Interchange Models • Default models will be available for several basic interchange designs (i.e., Compressed Diamond, Rural Diamond, Partial Cloverleaf, Semi-Directional, etc.) • Model Selection will be from the sequence selection screen:

32. Interchange Model Selection DRAFT Subject to Change

33. Also In-Work: • Change spec year to 2004 • New Utility to copy a sequence from within the project • New Field – “Quantities Complete in Trns*Port”

34. Intranet  Internet • Next on the priority list - expected release in May • No more VPN!! • You will be notified when the permanent web address is known

35. Modifications Tracking • Tab on the Main Version view will list: • Date and time of change • Userid • Type of change (code, drills down to details) • Net change in primary version cost

36. Architectural Component • Provide site work details – Earthwork, Drainage, Electrical, Concrete, Hardscape, Utilities, Paving, Signing, Safety, Landscaping • Choose building type from selection list – Administration, Rest Area, Weigh Station, Toll Plaza, Utility, Parking, ITS • Provide Building details – SF, costs for concrete, masonry, metals, wood & plastics, doors & windows, finishes, etc., and cost-per SF will be calculated

37. Links to Typical Section Sketches

38. Other Pending Enhancements • ITS as a subcomponent of Signalization • Revise bridge types to match Trns*Port • Updated pay items and fields for grassing, finished soil layer, rumble strips, etc. • Many other minor enhancements

39. Use the Feedback button!! Our goal is to make the LRE system as easy and effective as possible for you!

40. Training • Conducted in Districts, upon request • One full-day session • You must have an active userID • PDH credits are now available • Contact your District LRE Coordinator for information on upcoming classes.

41. District EstimatesCoordinators • D1 – Steve Walls • D2 – W.C. Cobb • D3 – Jess Bruner • D4 – Gene Lipscomb • D5 – Jonathan Linforth / Ed Kestory • D6 – Ruben Rivero • D7 – Jason Spilak • TP – Don Brackins • CO – Dale Stanley / Tyrone Ware