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Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in Georgia. Yongtao Hu 1 , M. Talat Odman 1 , Michael E. Chang 2 and Armistead G. Russell 1 1 School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 2 Brook Byers Institute of Sustainable Systems Georgia Institute of Technology.

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Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in Georgia

Yongtao Hu1, M. Talat Odman1, Michael E. Chang2 and Armistead G. Russell1

1School of Civil & Environmental Engineering,

2Brook Byers Institute of Sustainable Systems

Georgia Institute of Technology

9th Annual CMAS Conference, October 12th, 2010


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Overview forecasting in Georgia

  • The Hi-Res air quality forecasting system

  • O3 and PM2.5 performance for metro Atlanta

  • New SOA module and its impact on PM2.5 performance

  • Classificatory performance evaluation: linking forecast performance to weather types and emissions conditions


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Hi-Res: forecasting ozone and PM forecasting in Georgia2.5 at 4-km resolution for metro areas in Georgia

Georgia Institute of Technology


Snapshots from hi res homepage http forecast ce gatech edu

Hi-Res Forecast Products forecasting in Georgia

Snapshots from Hi-Res homepage: http://forecast.ce.gatech.edu

  • “Single Value” Report: tomorrow’s AQI, ozone and PM2.5 by metro area in Georgia

  • Air Quality Forecasts: AQI, ozone and PM2.5, 48-hrs spatial plots and station profiles

  • Meteorological Forecasts: precipitation, temperature and winds, 48-hrs spatial plots and station profiles

  • Performance Evaluation: time series comparison and scatter plots for the previous day

Georgia Institute of Technology


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Evolution of Hi-Res during 2006-2010 forecasting in Georgia

  • Updated to latest release of WRF each year before the ozone season.

    • WRF 2.1, 2.2, 3.0, 3.1 and 3.2

  • CMAQ is typically one version behind.

    • CMAQ 4.6 with Georgia Tech extensions

  • Projected NEI to current year in the very beginning of each year.

  • Updated forecast products website each year before ozone season.

  • Switched from single-cycle forecasting to two-cycles in 2008.

  • Enlarged 4-km domain to cover the entire state of Georgia in 2009.

  • Introduced Georgia Tech’s new SOA module in 2009.



Performance metrics
Performance Metrics forecasting in Georgia

NAAQS

Forecast

NAAQS

Observation


Overall 2006 2010 performance ozone season atlanta metro
Overall 2006-2010 Performance (Ozone Season): Atlanta Metro forecasting in Georgia

PM2.5

Ozone

Georgia Institute of Technology


Ozone performance

Ozone Performance forecasting in Georgia


Forecast vs observed o 3
Forecast forecasting in Georgiavs. Observed O3

2008

2007

2010

2009

Georgia Institute of Technology


2009 o 3 performance hi res vs ga epd s
2009 O forecasting in Georgia3 Performance: Hi-Res vs. GA EPD’s

Our 4-km Forecast

EPD Ensemble Forecast

Economic down turn?


2010 o 3 performance hi res vs ga epd s
2010 O forecasting in Georgia3 Performance: Hi-Res vs. GA EPD’s

Our 4-km Forecast

EPD Ensemble Forecast

Economic recovery?


Pm 2 5 performance

PM forecasting in Georgia2.5 Performance


Summer

Summer forecasting in Georgia


Forecast vs observed pm 2 5
Forecast forecasting in Georgiavs. Observed PM2.5

2007

2008

2009

2010

Georgia Institute of Technology


2009 pm 2 5 performance 4 km vs ga epd s
2009 PM forecasting in Georgia2.5 Performance: 4-km vs. GA EPD’s

Our 4-km Forecast

EPD Ensemble Forecast

Economic down turn?

New SOA module?


2010 pm 2 5 performance 4 km vs ga epd s
2010 PM forecasting in Georgia2.5 Performance: 4-km vs. GA EPD’s

Our 4-km Forecast

EPD Ensemble Forecast

New SOA module?


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Aging process: forecasting in Georgia

+OH,+O3

Aerosol

+OH,+O3

LSVOC

HSVOC

New SOA Module (Baek, J., Georgia Tech, 2009)

SOA species in CMAQ:

Included processes:

  • SOA partitioned from anthropogenic VOCs’ oxidations (8 SVOCs)

  • From monoterpenes (2 SVOCs)

  • From isoprene (2 SVOCs added)

  • From sesquiterpenes (1 SVOC added, gas phase oxidation reactions added for α-caryphyllene, β-humulene, and other sesquiterpenes)

  • Aging of all semi-volatile organic carbons (SVOCs)added

  • AORGAJ and AORGAI

  • AORGBJ and AORGBI

  • AORGBISJ and AORGBISI

  • AORGBSQJ and AORGBSQI

  • AORGAGJ and AORGAGI


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Forecast forecasting in Georgiavs. Observed OC at South DeKalb

Ozone Season May-September

OC

PM2.5

2009


Met performance

Met. Performance forecasting in Georgia


Overall 2006 2010 performance ozone season atlanta metro1
Overall 2006-2010 Performance (Ozone Season): Atlanta Metro forecasting in Georgia

Humidity

Temperature

Georgia Institute of Technology


Forecast vs observed temperature
Forecast forecasting in Georgiavs. Observed Temperature

Georgia Institute of Technology


Forecast vs observed humidity
Forecast forecasting in Georgiavs. Observed Humidity

Georgia Institute of Technology


Classificatory performance evaluation during 2006 2009

Classificatory Performance Evaluation during 2006-2009 forecasting in Georgia

Hu, Y., et al. 2010, "Using synoptic classification to evaluate an operational air quality forecasting system in Atlanta," Atmos. Pol. Res., 1, 280-287.


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Spatial Synoptic Classification forecasting in Georgia(Sheridan 2002, http://sheridan.geog.kent.edu/ssc.html): Atlanta Calendar(ozone season)

Weather Types

  • DP (dry polar): lowest in temp, clear and dry.

  • DM (dry moderate): air is mild and dry.

  • DT (dry tropical): hottest and driest.

  • MP (moist polar): cloudy, humid and cool.

  • MM (moist moderate): warmer and more humid.

  • MT (moist tropical): warm and very humid.

  • TR (transitional): one type yields to another, large shifts in P,Td,V.


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Forecasting error versus observation for spatial synoptic classifications

*Statistics are for 2006-2009 summers where not specified.


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Observations Grouped by Weather Type classifications

PM2.5

Ozone

Georgia Institute of Technology


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

8-hr O classifications3 Performance Grouped by Weather Type

2009

2006-2008


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

24-hr PM classifications2.5 Performance by Weather Type

2006-2008

2009



Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Linking Performance to Emissions Conditions classifications

Ozone

PM2.5

  • Emissions Conditions Classification:

    • Special weekdays (Monday and Friday)

    • Typical weekdays

    • Weekends/holidays


Summary
Summary classifications

  • 2006-2010 ozone forecasts are good.

    • Overall bias is +16% and error is 23%

  • 2006-2008 PM2.5 forecasts are not very accurate.

    • May-September bias is -37% and error is 43%

  • The new SOA module improved 2009 and 2010 PM2.5 performances

    • May-September bias is 8% and error is 25% for 2009

    • May-September bias is 4% and error is 21% for 2010

  • 2006-2010 temperature and humidity performances are good.

  • Better ozone performance and, during 2009-2010, better PM2.5 performance are associated with dry weather types.

  • Forecast performance is worse on weekend/holidays

Georgia Institute of Technology


Classificatory performance evaluation of air quality forecasting in georgia

Acknowledgements classifications

We thank Georgia EPD for funding the Hi-Res forecasts,

Our former group member Dr. Jaemeen Baek for the new SOA module, and

Dr. Carlos Cardelino of Georgia Tech for team forecasts.


Forecast vs observed 2006
Forecast classificationsvs. Observed 2006

PM2.5

O3

Temperature

Humidity

Georgia Institute of Technology


Winter

Winter classifications


Forecasted vs observed pm 2 5
Forecasted classificationsvs. Observed PM2.5

2007

2008

2009