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Water Year Outlook. Long Range Weather Forecast. Use a combination of long term predictors Phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Phase of Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) And seasonal predictors ENSO El Nino La Nina North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

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Presentation Transcript
long range weather forecast
Long Range Weather Forecast
  • Use a combination of long term predictors
    • Phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
    • Phase of Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
  • And seasonal predictors
    • ENSO
      • El Nino
      • La Nina
    • North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies
      • Anomaly-difference from the mean
  • Analog years
    • Years with similar weather patterns as the upcoming year
long term p redictors
Long Term Predictors
  • PDO is in cold phase
  • AMO is in warm Phase
  • Climatological precipitation patterns as a function of PDO and AMO Phases are below

This is the present status

fall and winter outlook1
Fall and Winter Outlook
  • La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.
  • Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have become increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the last several weeks.
  • Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña.
  • La Niña is expected to strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
fall and winter outlook2
Fall and Winter Outlook

January – March anomalies and patterns during moderate to strong La Nina

fall and winter outlook3
Fall and Winter Outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

fall and winter outlook4
Fall and Winter Outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

fall and winter outlook5
Fall and Winter Outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

new 30 year averages 1981 2010
New 30 Year Averages(1981-2010)

In Idaho, normal temperatures increased about 0.6 degree F for the max temperatures and about 0.3 degree F on the min temperatures.