STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2008* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.
GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures(In Millions) $7,553m $6,914m $6,797m OFFICIAL ESTIMATE $6,598m $429.1 $297.5 $527.2 $772.8 Actual Collections $621.3 $428.3 Appropriations Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2003 thru FY-2009 – Ave. 6.16% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2009) – Ave. 3.84% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 10%) and ROADS increases (08 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2003 thru FY-2009 Official Estimate – Ave. 3.96%
General Revenue Fund SourcesBased on OSU Econometric Model Projections(In Millions) FY-2011 – FY-2013 Ave.8.1% Growth Ave. 10.3% Growth Ave. 5.3% Growth Ave. 4.2% Growth Ave. 1.8% Growth BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING
Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions) (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) *5.3% *7% *6.3% *6.8% *Based on OSU Econometric Model projections. No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding.