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MENA Water Outlook 2050. Future Water Availability Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Wilco Terink The Netherlands. Climate Change. Current Problems. Food Water Requirements. Existing Water-Climate Change studies limitations: Not only climate change, but global changes

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mena water outlook 2050

MENA Water Outlook 2050

Future Water Availability

Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, WilcoTerink

The Netherlands

slide8

Existing Water-Climate Change studies limitations:

    • Not only climate change, but global changes
      • increased population
      • increased GDP
      • increased consumption: domestic, industry
    • Conceptual limitations
      • focus on economics, not on water resources
      • focus on annual numbers
      • focus on limited sectors
    • Impact and not adaptation
study design
Study Design
  • Objectives
    • Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050
    • Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage
  • Steps
    • Climate and other change projections
    • Hydrological impact model
    • Water resources supply/demand analysis
    • Cost and benefits adaptation options
  • Limitations
    • Large scale so simplifications, generalizations
monthly approach
Monthly approach

20 mm shortage?

projected climate change in the mena
Projected climate change in the MENA
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) uses four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2)
  • Each scenario family explores alternative development pathways
  • This study uses the A1B scenario because:
    • It is widely used and recommended by the IPCC
    • It is the most likely scenario:
      • Assumes a world of rapid economic growth
      • Global population that peaks in mid-century
      • Rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies
projected climate change in the mena15
Projected climate change in the MENA
  • All of MENA is likely to warm during the 21st century
  • Warming is very likely to be larger than the global, annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics
  • Annual rainfall is likely to decrease in much of Mediterranean Africa and northern Sahara
  • There is likely to be an increase in annual rainfall in East Africa

Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa. Differences between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 GCMs

selection of general climate models
Selection of General Climate Models

GCM performance in North-East Africa:

  • 9 GCMs were selected, because of the large variation in climate projections between the GCMs
  • The table shows the mean of monthly correlation and mean squared difference of 20th century GCM experiments with the CRU TS 2.1 analysis
  • The first nine GCMs are included in the current study
why downscaling
Why downscaling?
  • GCMs generate forcing data (precipitation, temperature) at a coarse spatial resolution (>100 km)
  • Hydrological processes occur on a higher spatial resolution
  • The statistics of the coarse GCM forcing data do not match the statistics of the observed forcing data
downscaling approach
Downscaling approach
  • Temperature
  • Reference evapotranspiration
  • Precipitation
    • Reference period is 2000-2009 (NCEP/NCAR and TRMM)
    • Monthly GCM data from 2000-2050
    • Monthly absolute anomalies 2010-2050 with respect to 2000-2009 (ΔTy,m)
    • Select random year 2000-2009
    • For each day in 2010-2050:
    • Future ETref using Hargreaves assuming no change in diurnal temperature range (Tmax-Tmin)
changes
Changes
  • Irrigation water demand changes
    • FAO: AgriculutreTowards 2050
  • Industrial water demand changes
    • AquaStat: f(GDP, GDP/cap)
  • Domestic water demand changes
    • AquaStat: f(GDP, GDP/cap)
  • Populationgrowth
    • Environmental Assessment Agency
the mena hydrological model
The MENA hydrological model
  • PCRaster-Water Balance
  • Distributed water balance model
  • Daily time step
  • 10 km x 10 km resolution
  • Model domain includes MENA including upstream basins (5210 km x 8770 km)
the mena hydrological model29
The MENA hydrological model

Model resolution:

  • Regular grid of 10 km
  • Daily time step

Each cell describes:

  • Thevertical flow of water through four compartments
    • Canopy
    • Three soil compartments
  • Soil and canopy are fed by rainfall and depleted by evapotranspiration
  • The transfer of runoff to the drainage network

Sub-grid processes at 1 km:

  • Short and tall vegetation
  • Fraction of soil type
  • Topography
  • Open water
key process vegetation and evaporation

F(s)

1

0

s

0

1

Key process: vegetation and evaporation

Etr

Interception:

Ei

Es

Imax

I

Etr

Ei

Transpiration and soil evaporation:

Evapotranspiration:

location of grdc discharge stations
Location of GRDC discharge stations
  • Validation of model results using stream flow
total renewable water resources
Total Renewable Water Resources

Total change from 2010 to 2050 in % in total renewable water resources

main findings
MainFindings
  • Changes MENA (2010-2050):
  • Internal renewable water resources: 20% reduction
    • (8% lessrainfall)
    • (12% more evapotranspiration)
  • Total renewable water resources: 8% reduction
  • Large variation between countries
  • Large year-to-yearvariability
  • Per capita water availability will drop even further below critical levels in the future