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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2009* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.
GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures(In Millions) $6,333m OFFICIAL ESTIMATE $6,038.5m $429.1 Actual Collections $527.2 $5,918.6m $104.3 $772.8 $891.1 $5,529.6m $621.3 $428.3 Appropriations Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2003 thru FY-2010 – Ave. 3.99% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2010) – Ave. 2.76% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 10%) and ROADS increases (08 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2003 thru FY-2010 Official Estimate – Ave. .55%
General Revenue Fund SourcesBased on OSU Econometric Model Projections(In Millions) FY-2012 – FY-2014 Ave.7.6% Growth Ave. 7.8% Growth Ave. 0.7% Growth Ave. 5.1% Growth Ave. 1.2% Growth BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions over Prior Year) (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) *5.3% *5.2% (0.5)% *6.0% (5.6)% *7.3% *(14.1)% *Based on OSU Econometric Model projections. ACTUALS No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding.