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THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM Scientific Guidance Provided by NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Presentation prepared by Z. Toth THORPEX ORGANIZATION EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHT SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION INTERNATIONAL LEVEL – LINK WITH WMO

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slide1

THORPEX:

A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM

Scientific Guidance Provided by

NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee

Presentation prepared by Z. Toth

slide2

THORPEX ORGANIZATION

EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHTSCIENTIFIC DIRECTION

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL – LINK WITH WMO

  • International Core Steering Committee
    • Michel Beland (Co-chair)
    • Louis Uccellini (US Representat.)
  • International Science Steering Comm.
  • Co-chaired by
    • Mel Shapiro & Alan Thorpe

REGIONAL (NORTH AMERICAN) LEVEL – LINK WITH USWRP

Oversight provided by

North American members of International Core Steering Comm.

  • North American Science Steering Com
    • Co-chaired by
    • David Parsons & Pierre Gauthier

NOAA LEVEL – LINK WITH CORPORATE MANAGEMENT

NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Com.

L. Uccellini (Chair), M. Uhart,

M. Colton, and Jack Hayes

  • NOAA Science Steering Committee
    • Z. Toth (Chair, Program Manager)
    • 12 NOAA and outside members
slide3

NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART

NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee

Louis Uccellini (Chair) NWS Michael Uhart OWAQ

Marie Colton ORA/NESDIS Jack Hayes NWS

NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee

Zoltan Toth Chair, Program Manager NOAA/NWS

Observations: Data Assimilation

Jaime Daniels NOAA/NESDIS Craig Bishop NRL

David Emmitt SWA L.-P. Riishojgaard JCSDA

Thomas Schlatter NOAA/FSL

Chris Velden CIMSS

Forecasting/Predictability: Socioeconomic Applications:

Jim Hansen MIT Rebecca Morss NCAR

Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill NOAA/CDC Marty Ralph NOAA/ERL

George Kiladis NOAA/AL

slide4

THORPEX:

A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002):

  • NOAA NWS
    • Zoltan Toth
    • Naomi Surgi
  • NOAA OAR
    • Melvyn Shapiro
    • Jeff Whitaker
  • Outside NOAA
    • Craig Bishop NRL
    • David Carlson NCAR
    • Ron Gelaro NASA
    • Rebecca Morss NCAR
    • John Murray NASA
    • Chris Snyder NCAR

With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team

Acknowledgements:

D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

slide5

NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

  • 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists
  • Apr 2000 First International Meeting
  • Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed
  • Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
  • Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
  • Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan
  • Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed
  • Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment
  • Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity
  • Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received
  • Oct-Dec 03 Atlantic Regional Campaign
slide6

THORPEX OBJECTIVES

  • INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM
  • SCIENCE GOAL:
  • Promote research leading to new techniques in:
          • Observations (Collect data)
          • Data assimilation (Prepare initial cond.)
          • Forecasting (Run numerical model)
          • Socioeconomic Applications
          • (Post-process, add value, apply)
  • SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS
  • SERVICE GOAL:
  • Accelerate improvements in utility of 1-14 day forecasts for high impact weather
  • THORPEX ANSWER:
  • Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through
  • Enhanced collaboration: Internationally
  • Among different disciplines
  • Between research & operations
  • Example: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
slide7

THORPEX OBJECTIVES

SYNERGISTIC COLLABORATION

SCIENCE GOAL – SHARED WITH ALL PARTICIPANTS, COMMON THEME

Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting

Integrate OBS, DA, FCST, & APPLICATION areas of forecast process

All participants contribute to advancing same science objective

LEVERAGING RESOURCES

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS

SERVICE GOAL – DIFFERENT PRIORITIES FOR EACH AGENCY/NATION

Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather

Severe weather (Asia?); 1-3 day weather (Europe?); Global monitoring (NASA?)

All participants share service applications among themselves

COMPLIMENTARY EFFORTS

Critical mass of resources needed – Intellectual, Material, Global observs.

NEED INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION

slide8

THORPEX OBJECTIVES

  • NOAA’S ROLE
  • Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:
    • Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc
    • Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc
  • THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:
  • NOAA SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL
  • Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful
    • 3-7 day precipitation forecasts
    • 8-14 day daily weather forecasts
  • NOAA’S ROLE
  • Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:
    • Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc
    • Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc
  • THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:
  • NOAA’S SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL
  • Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful
    • 3-7 day precipitation forecasts
    • 8-14 day daily weather forecasts
slide9

THORPEX:

A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

TO REACH NOAA’S SERVICE GOAL

52-page document based on input from 18 NOAA and outside experts

INTRODUCTION New forecast paradigm

SCIENCE PLAN Major Themes

Open Science Questions

Research and Development Tasks

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Work Plan

Deliverables

Performance measures

Education/Outreach

Path to Operations

APPENDIX Link with NOAA Strategic Goals

NWS STIP Process

weather forecasting for days 3 14
WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14
  • Based on guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
  • Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts
  • Components of NWP forecasting:
  • Observing system – Collect data
  • Data assimilation - Prepare initial conditions
  • Forecast procedures –

Run numerical model

  • Societal & economic applictns –

Post-process, add value, apply

traditional forecast approach
TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH

Each discipline developed on its own

Disjoint steps in forecast process

Little or no feedback

One-way flow of information

Uncertainty in process ignored

status quo scenario
STATUS QUO SCENARIO

Forecast skill improves

As in any learning process, improvements become harder as skill advances

Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements not possible with current status quo approach/resources

Substantial resources spent on improving NWP

Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability of society to weather increases?

thorpex solution
THORPEX SOLUTION:

REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

Invest in major new NWP program =>

Develop new NWP procedures

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

Return – Pace of forecast improvement maintained/accelerated

Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of new procedures

Implement operationally most cost effective new methods

Return – Enhanced operational capability

Improved cost effectiveness

new nwp paradigm 1
NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1

INTEGRATED NWP

Sub-systems developed in coordintation

End-to-end forecast process

Strong feedback

Two-way interaction among components

Error/uncertainty accounted for at each

Based on better understanding of forecast process

new nwp paradigm 2
NEW NWP PARADIGM - 2

Integrated

ADAPTIVE

Based on more detailed understanding of natural processes

Allows more differentiated, case dependent methods/procedures

Exmples

Observations – Adaptive platform collects data to fill gaps due to clouds

Data assimilation – Flow dependent forecast error estimates

Forecasting – Situation dependent modeling algorithms –

e. g., hurricane relocation

Applications – Probabilistic forecast reflects all forecast info => ultimate adaptation of user procedures to weather

new nwp paradigm 3
NEW NWP PARADIGM - 3

Integrated

Adaptive

USER CONTROLLABLE

Based on:

2-way interactions (improved forecast process)

Adaptive approach (better understanding of nature)

Forecast process

Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements

Now responsive to CHANGING user needs

User needs connected to observational, data assimilation, and forecast systems

Dynamical analysis of nature & forecast process

New, NWP model based tools

Fully interactive forecast process

Example:User identifies critical forecast weather event

Special observational or forecast procedures

Improved targeted forecast

science objective revolutionize nwp process integrated adaptive user controllable
SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS -INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

NEW NWP

Sub-systems developed in coordination

End-to-end forecast process

Strong feedback among components

Two-way interaction

Error/uncertainty accounted for

TRADITIONAL NWP

Each discipline developed on its own

Disjoint steps in forecast process

Little or no feedback

One-way flow of information

Uncertainty in process ignored

SERVICE GOAL: IMPROVE 3-14 DAY FORECASTS

new nwp paradigm 4
NEW NWP PARADIGM - 4

Isolated examples exist

INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT

NPOESS instrument/platform design:

Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecasting needs considered)

- North American Observing System initiative

ADAPTIVE APPROACH

GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed

USER CONTROL – WSR program at NWS

Threat of winter storm – potential societal impact

Dynamical calculations

Targeted observations collected

Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast process

From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make interactive, adaptive, & user controlled methods the RULE

slide19

NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW – ACTIVITIES

  • ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS

Advance basic knowledge,

directed explicitly toward NWP applications

Each task conceived as part of overall program

  • DEVELOP NEW METHODS

Sub-system development

Academic research

Cross-cutting activities

Academic + operational centers

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

Real-time test and demonstration

Infrastructure / Core tasks

Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvement

THORPEX Data Base

Operational Test Facility

  • RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION

Integral part of program

Strong participation by operational centers

science questions activities
SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES

Observing system (OBS)

Data assimilation (DA)

Forecast procedures (FCST)

Socio-economic Applications (SA)

Cross-cutting activities

Core tasks

science questions activities 1
SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1

OBSERVING SYSTEM

New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network

Adaptive observing instruments/platforms

For large data sets

Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.

(Joint work with data assimilation)

Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

science questions activities 2
SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2

Observing system

DATA ASSIMILATION

Improve techniques

Forward models, transfer codes

Thinning of data

Treatment of data with correlated errors

Advanced methods to use flow dependent covariance

4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance

Ensemble based techniques

Treatment of model errors

Adaptive observing techniques

Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting)

Methods in the presence of

Strong non-linearities

Model error

Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts

Effect on climatological applications of data

science questions activities 3
SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3

Observing system

Data assimilation

FORECAST PROCEDURES

Initial ensemble perturbations (Joint with data assimilation)

Role of non-modal behavior

Separate model related error from initial value errors

Systematic vs. random errors

Atmospheric features most affected

Critical model features responsible for different errors

Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques)

Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles (physics, etc)

Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

science questions activities 4
SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4

Observing system

Data assimilation

Forecast procedures

SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

Probabilistic forecasting

Statistical post-processing

New procedures for intermediate and end users

Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process

Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms (Joint with Observtns.)

Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process

New NWP verification measure

Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures

Equitable use of NWP resources, how adaptive procedures applied nationally and internationally

cross cutting activities
CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

Data needs of NWP

What variables/resolution/accuracy required

Instrument/platform neutral assessment

What instruments/platforms can provide data needs

Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms

Adaptive component to complement fixed network

Most cost effective solution

Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems

Improvements in which sub-system offer best return?

Reallocation of resources

Test of proposed operational configurations

Major field program if needed

Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost effective version

core tasks
CORE TASKS

Needed for efficient research & planned operations

Strong agency involvement

THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)

Information Technology challenge

High data volume

Transmission

Storage of data

Foster collaboration in critical areas

Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)

Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration

Critical in past programs like FASTEX

Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations

Formal procedure for researchers to follow

Melting pot for new ideas

Venue for cross-cutting activities

slide27

NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW - DELIVERABLES

DELIVERABLES

New forecast techniques

Observing, data assimilation, forecasting, application tools

Accelerated forecast improvements

Integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP

Cost effective operational system

Based on cost/benefit analysis

Enhanced user interface

COSTS

Research Grant Program

Integrated program - Four sub-areas & cross-cutting activities

Operational Test Facility

Simulated forecast process; Database

Real-time test/implementation

Data transmission, Computations, Training

OVERALL MEASURE OF SUCCESS:

SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS

MUST OUTWEIGH OPERATIONAL COSTS

slide28

LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL

NOAA’S 3rd MISSION GOAL – sounds like excerpt fromTHORPEX doc.:

NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage… environmental resources”.

Mission strategies and measures of success

directly correspond with

THORPEX Sub-program areas:

NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTS

Monitor and Observe Observations

Understand and Describe Data Assimilation

Assess and Predict Forecasting

Engage, Advise, and Inform Socio-economic Applications

Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components –

NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION

slide29

LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS

National Weather Service (NWS) –

NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider

NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) –

Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research

Research must have thread to operations &

Credible path to operational implementation

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS

THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts:

Nature (atmospheric and related processes)

Forecast procedures (OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques)

Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of

INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS

slide30

THORPEX:

A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM

OVERVIEW OF NOAA’S THORPEX-RELATED ACTIVITIES

  • ACCOMPLISHMENTS:
  • Contributed to International Science Plan
  • Contributes to forming THORPEX International Program Office (Under WMO auspices in Geneva)
  • Contributes to North American Implementation Plan
  • Formed NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
  • Developed NOAA THORPEX Long-Term Research Plan
  • Issued First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity (AO)
  • ONGOING EFFORT:
  • Evaluation of research proposals in response to AO
  • Atlantic Regional Campaign
  • OUTSTANDING ISSUES:
  • Funding for AO unresolved
  • Funding for Operational Test Facility (FTO) needed
slide31

NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROJECT

  • GOALS: Accelerate improvements in operational weather forecasting
          • through Canadian-US collaboration
        • Seamless (across boundary and in time) suite of products
          • through joint Canadian-US operational ensemble forecast system
  • PARTICIPANTS: Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC, MRB)
          • US National Weather Service (NCEP)
  • PLANNED ACTIVITIES: Ensemble data exchange (June 2004)
  • Research and Development -Statistical post-processing
          • (2003-2007) -Product development
          • -Verification/Evaluation
  • Operational implementation (in phases, 2004-2008)
  • POTENTIAL PROJECT EXPANSION / LINKS:
        • Shared interest with THORPEX goals of
          • Improvements in operational forecasts
          • International collaboration
        • Expand bilateral NAEFS in future
          • Entrain broader research community
          • Multi-center / multi-national ensemble system:
          • MOA with Japan Meteorological Agency
costs deliverables
COSTS/DELIVERABLES

Costs:

Research program

Integrated concept – need to fund research in all four areas of NWP

Operational implementation

Deliverables

New observing, data assimilation, forecasting, & application tools to implement integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP

Acceleration in current NWP improvements

Socio-economic benefits must outweigh operational costs

slide34

NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES

  • 1) Develop new forecast procedures leading to
  • Improved operational NWP forecasts; and
  • Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact
  • ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS
  • The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools (point 3 above) indicate that the forecast improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX procedures (point 1) can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.
need for collaborative program
NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM

Interdisciplinary research

Different groups/agencies/nations need to collaborate

Integrated approach to NWP – 4 sub-systems

Practical goal – Research + Operations

Challenging program

Need critical mass of resources

Intellectual

Material

Synergistic activities

Priorities of other agencies may be different

Common overarching THORPEX themes

Complementary efforts

Leveraging of resources

Global data and all NWP methods universally needed

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE