SO2 Data Analysis • The following 4 slides attempt to provide a context for a re-analysis of the model results using the milestone inventory. If model results show a reduction in sulfate on the Colorado Plateau on the 20% worst (modeled) days, those results could be added to the slide show to complete the picture. • Slide 1: 1990 – 1999 Improve data, 20% worst days • Pie chart: Average contribution to extinction of selected components over 10 years • Bar chart: SO4, variance from the mean at individual stations over the same time period • Slide 2: A comparison of OC and SO4 as a percentage of Bext, and their correlation to emissions from wildfire. • Slide 3: A qualitative relationship between observed sulfate on the Colorado Plateau and the 1996 WRAP modeling inventory for the 9 transport states (without fugitive dust). • Slide 4: Comparisons between the 1996, 2018 base, and 2018 milestone inventories for point source SO2 inthe 9-state region. A 32% reduction in electric utility SO2 in the milestone inventory yields a 21% reduction in total point source SO2 in the region. • Sources: • Improve: Annual Light Extinction Group 10, 50, 90 • http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/DatawareHouse/IMPROVE/Data/SummaryData/RECONBEXT_annual.TXT • Projections Report for the 2018 Base Case Emission Inventory • Pechan, May 2002 on WRAP emissions forum page • Spreadsheets for various inventory components located on the WRAP Emissions Forum page • Interagency situation reports for U.S. wildfires. http://www.nifc.gov/news/nicc.html Patrick Barickman Colleen Delaney Brock LeBaron Utah DAQ August, 2002
Components of Visibility Degradation on the Colorado Plateau 1989 – 1999 as Measured at 6 Locations ( 20% Worst Days ) Variation in Sulfate Contribution to Visibility Degradation During the 20% Worst Days 1989 - 1999
SO4 OC Correlation between wildfire intensity and the SO4/OC contribution to Bext on the Colorado Plateau.
Components of Visibility Degradation on the Colorado Plateau 1989 – 1999 as Measured at 6 Locations ( 20% Worst Days ) 1996 Inventory - 9 Transport States, All Sources 1996 SO2 Inventory
Point Source SO2 – 1996, 2018 Base Year, 2018 Milestone 17% Reduction in Point Source SO2 From 1996 to 2018 Base Year 21% reductionin Point Source SO2 From the 2018 Base Year to the 2018 Milestone Inventory Reduction in Electric Utility SO2 = 32%