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AFWA Update COPC May 2009 Colonel John D. Murphy Commander

AFWA Update COPC May 2009 Colonel John D. Murphy Commander. Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimted. Overview. Operations Backup for NOAA centers METSAT Processing WRF Transition DATMS-U Outages and mitigation actions Modeling Initiatives

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AFWA Update COPC May 2009 Colonel John D. Murphy Commander

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  1. AFWA UpdateCOPCMay 2009Colonel John D. MurphyCommander Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimted

  2. Overview • Operations • Backup for NOAA centers • METSAT Processing • WRF Transition • DATMS-U Outages and mitigation actions • Modeling Initiatives • Cloud, Land and Dust Model Improvements • Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages and Services

  3. Backup for NOAA Centers NCEP (AWC, SPC, SWPC) NESDIS VAAC

  4. Operational BackupSince May 2008 NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center No real-world backups; 4 scheduled rehearsals Effective 1 May 09 backup role transitioned to 1 WXG (15 OWS at Scott AFB, IL) to better align with unit capabilities System support for SPC/AWC relocation in case of catastrophic outage retained at Offutt AFB NCEP - Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) No real-world backups; 4 scheduled rehearsals NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center 5 short-term real world backups (lasting a few hours) 2 scheduled rehearsals

  5. Operational METSAT Processing

  6. METSAT ProcessingDMSP Operational Status(As of March 09) Slide Removed in Public Release Version

  7. METSAT ProcessingIngest System, Geosynchronous • METSAT ingest system refresh • Transitioned DMSP, POES, GOES satellites, Sept 08 • Added capability to convert MetOp Level-1b to AFWA “SIMPLE” format • GOES • Seeking solution for full time GVAR receipt of GOES-10 (S. America) • No GOES-12 SXI due to X-ray Sensor (XRS) anomaly 12 Apr 07 • Anticipating GOES-13 SXI data to replace lost GOES-12 sensor • METEOSAT • MET-9 into primary operational service 11 Apr 07; Met-8 is backup • EUMETSAT continues imaging of IO region by MET-7 • AFWA/FNMOC receive EUMETSAT “archive files” from NESDIS vs. historical Met-7 rebroadcast from DOMSAT • MTSAT-1R • Providing routine feed to FNMOC operations; cost-sharing recurring DOMSAT uplink expenses

  8. METSAT ProcessingForeign Polar, NASA EOS • MetOp-A • ‘Ingest’ declared operational Mar 09; converts Level-1b to ‘SIMPLE’ • CDFS II data base modification completed Apr 09 • Will be added to WWMCA May 09 • Aqua/Terra (MODIS) • Turn on of NSOF MODIS data via NESDIS gateway/DATMS-U 8 Apr 09; • Added hemisphere/week to monitor and minimize comm impact • Full data flow enabled by end of April • Provides enhanced aerosol analysis and developmental 6km global cloud analysis

  9. WRF Operational Transition

  10. WRF Transition Plan • Phase I: Replace existing MM5 windows with WRF • One-for-one replacement of CONUS and OCONUS MM5 windows (including current 45 km domains) with WRF starting with SW Asia domain (anticipated completion late 2009) • Retain “TC Tracker” over Pacific/Indian Oceans • Continue running MM5 in background until capability available in WRF (Version 3.1 delivered; Ops implementation early Jun 09) • Run 45km MM5 as input to the Dust Transport Application (DTA) for Africa, SW Asia, and Asia until transition to WRF model (Late 09) • WRF transition actions to resume at end of May • Phase II: Expand all 15/5km WRF domains

  11. Transition Timelines

  12. DATMS-U Outages and Mitigation Actions

  13. DATMS-U Outages/Actions Slide Removed in Public Release Version

  14. Modeling Initiatives Cloud, Land Surface and Dust Model Improvements

  15. Cloud Modeling • Implemented Global Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model in late 2008 • Statistical model using GFS tuned by AFWA cloud analysis • Running a prototype high resolution Aerospace Nephanalysis (ANEPH) to feed 5km resolution DCF based on WRF output • ANEPH functionality included in Jun 09 CDFS II implementation • Starting development of AFWA Coupled Assimilation and Prediction System (ACAPS) • NCAR on contract for 4DVAR development • AER, Inc. developing upgraded 1DVAR cloud characterization

  16. Cloud Modeling Regional Cloud Forecasts DCF Diagnostic Cloud Forecast • Regional cloud model developed in partnership with AFRL • Pairs AFWA WRF output with CDFS-II or ANEPH cloud analysis • Statistically “chooses” how clouds best correlate with WRF predictors • 45/15/5 km resolution output • 3-hr time step • 30-80 hr forecast range (depends on grid resolution) • DCF products: • Total fractional cloud coverage • layer coverage (5-layers) • layer top height & thickness • layer type 16

  17. Land Surface Modeling • Partnering with NASA and Army to develop Land Information System • LIS IOC (global ¼ degree) implemented Feb 2009 • FOC (global and nested WRF domains) planned Feb 2010 • NCAR, NASA, AFWA joint project to couple LIS/WRF • Initial capability delivered March 2009 • Final development ongoing to be delivered March 2010 • AFWA supporting NASA to fully integrate JCSDA Common Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM ) into LIS • Final development to be completed by April 2010

  18. LIS initialized runs reduced WRF warm bias LIS affected 0-48 hour forecasts of surface weather, boundary layer temps/moisture, clouds, and precipitation LIS soil and snow fields capture fine scale surface features which can play important role in high resolution NWP Land Surface Modeling LIS/WRF Coupling • Demonstrate using LIS to initialize WRF (ARW) SE Asia domain • 4 seasonal test periods STUDY RESULTS: 18

  19. Dust Modeling • Operational Dust Transport Application (DTA) • MM5-based run only at 45 km resolution • Evaluating developmental versions of: • GFS based DTA (1/2 degree) • WRF based DTA (45 and 15km domains) • Ensemble-based Dust Lofting Probability tool • Ongoing collaborations: • FNMOC/NRL – comparing WRF DTA and COAMPS-based dust forecasts • UKMO - Working to obtain dust model data and verification data for SWA theater

  20. DTA ProductsCurrent Operational Examples Visibility

  21. DTA Products Developmental Google Earth/Maps Dust Concentration

  22. DTA Products Developmental JGE Ensemble Based 138 hr fcst 6 hr fcst

  23. Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages and Services

  24. “weather.af.mil”Single Weather Portal • Enterprise portal concept • Bring AFWA (2WS and 14WS) web holdings together with OWSs into common URL • Implement same integrated page concept for unclassified and classified networks • How it’s done • Leverage SOA & OGC services for all AFW visualized product • Utilize Horace as OGC services engine • Enterprise web built from OGC services “mash-up” • Products build on-the-fly dynamically

  25. “weather.af.mil” DesignSupports Many Viewing Engines All content can be viewed thru various GIS panes - right-sized for mission/user High-bandwidth, 3-D viewer – Google Earth Medium/normal-bandwidth, 2-D viewer – Google Maps/OpenLayers Low-bandwidth – Table driven PDA access 25

  26. “weather.af.mil” ExampleCombining JMBL & KML Automatically updating current observations Legend Overlay Links to Raw Trends Hourly / Special Observations & Winds Color coded based on visibility, ceiling, & temperature Color coded wind barbs based on wind speed

  27. “weather.af.mil” Example Google Earth – Google Maps Conditional Cloud Climatology Climatological Wind Rose - Pan/tilt to see terrain impacts - Overlaid on airfield

  28. Backup Slides

  29. METSAT ProcessingDMSP Update • Flight 17 (F17) • Primary operational spacecraft in early morning orbit • Second OLS decontamination Aug 08; restored thermal detector sensitivity to near early-orbit capability; T-Channel Gain step at 14/31 • Mar 09, OLS Visible detector flight software modified to address day-night transition in observed scene; improved imagery quality • OLS Low-light detector commanded to “Center-Lock” mode to provide consistency across scan; degraded (left to right imbalance of brightness), loss of surface resolution at edges of scan • Attitude control behavior • Gyro # 3 off Jun 2007 • Gyro # 1 off Jul 08 • MIMU – Primary for attitude control; nominal mapping accuracy • Installed on Flight 17 & 18 to ensure operational performance • SGYRO commanding software uploaded as MIMU backup

  30. METSAT ProcessingDMSP Update Cont. • F16 • Primary operational spacecraft in mid-morning orbit • Attitude control maintained by S-Gyro software and gyro #3 • Gyro-3 performance remains stable • Infrequent Gyro Bias shifts temporarily move spacecraft out of basic pointing mode – data geolocation errors along track and at edge of scan but still operationally useful • F18 • Replacement for F16 in mid-morning orbit • SSMI/S will fly Engineering Model main reflector; more accurate collections anticipated • Nov 08 Launch slipped, AF/A3O-W request, to reduce risk of operational gaps during the transition to NPOESS • Launch date projected for Aug 09 • Will launch on Atlas V booster

  31. DMSP Update • Secondary flights • F15 provides additional hi-res imagery • Gyro issues similar to F16 • RADCAL Beacon operation rendering SSM/I unusable for AFWA automated NWP applications (22V channel) • F13 reached 14-year operational milestone on 24 March 09 • Continues providing global imagery and microwave (SSM/I) data on two remaining recorders • Recorder # 2 slightly degraded (magnetic tape wear) • F14 Tactical support only; Hi-res Direct Readout capability • Last recorder failed 23 Aug 08 • F12 Decommissioned Oct 08; attitude control issue

  32. “weather.af.mil” DesignFlexibility – Efficiency Pan and zoom in 2-D GIS pane Multiple services viewed as stacked layers Web page menus built dynamically from services Multiple styles for same product Easily supports wide-range of GRIB data Supports rapid product development and web page integration 32

  33. “weather.af.mil” What Next Rapid OGC services development Accomplish with team of indigenous assets – Not a contract action Roll-out developmental/prototype capabilities weekly Targeting IOC by end CY 2009 – Network accreditation is highest risk Goal is commonality and standards compliance but with a high degree of flexibility and mission responsiveness Not This This 33

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