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REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO 2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLO - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO 2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES Carmen Difiglio U.S. Department of Energy (carmen.difiglio@hq.doe.gov) Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies August 20, 2007

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REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES

Carmen Difiglio

U.S. Department of Energy

(carmen.difiglio@hq.doe.gov)

Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies

August 20, 2007

five approaches to reducing co 2 emissions in motor vehicles
Five Approaches to Reducing CO2 Emissions in Motor Vehicles
  • Improve fuel efficiency on current-technology vehicles.
  • Introduce new vehicle concepts that have lower emissions.
  • Substitute gasoline and diesel fuel with lower-emission fuels.
  • Shift to lower-emission travel modes.
  • Reduce travel.
main advanced concepts
Main Advanced Concepts
  • Hybrid Vehicles (now commercialized)
    • “Toyota” system hybrids (2 or 4 electric motors) provide ~40% fuel savings and cost ~ $5,000.
    • “Honda” system hybrids (1 motor) provide ~30% fuel savings and cost ~ $3,000 (more cost-effective).
  • Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (under development)
    • Plug-ins offer some degree of electric-vehicle operation with substantial cost increase for additional batteries.
  • Electric Vehicles
    • Probably niche markets due to limited energy density.
  • Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (longer term)
  • Other Alternative Fuel or Fuel Flexible Vehicles
lower emission fuels
Lower Emission Fuels
  • Cellulosic Ethanol (~ 90% reduction)
  • Biodiesel Fuel (~ 70% reduction)
  • Ethanol from sugar (~ 60% reduction)
  • Hydrogen (100% reduction to increased emissions depending on energy source and end-use efficiency)
  • Electricity (100% reduction to increased emissions depending on energy source and end-use efficiency)
  • Compressed Natural Gas (~ 30% reduction)
  • Liquefied Natural Gas (~ 20% reduction)
  • Ethanol from Corn (~ 20% reduction)
  • Liquefied Petroleum Gas (~ 20% reduction)
  • Methanol (< 10% reduction)
  • Gas-to-Liquids (5% higher; lower with CCS)
  • Coal-to-Liquids (110% higher; ~ 2% higher with CCS)
barriers to the uptake of h 2 vehicles by 2050
Barriers to the Uptake of H2 Vehiclesby 2050
  • Fuel cells need to cost ~ $50/kW to be competitive.
  • On board H2 is an unsolved problem (low energy density implies limited vehicle range between refueling).
  • Infrastructure investment for vehicles, fuel production and fuel distribution are all extremely high.
  • Without government intervention, vehicle manufacturers, fuel producers and fuel distributors face substantial investment risk (coordinated investment needed).
  • Low-emission sources of H2 are expensive and would be best used to decarbonize the electric power sector first.
  • Nonetheless, many governments (e.g., U.S., Japan, E.U.) have significant programs to overcome these barriers.
  • Why? Fuel cell H2 vehicles still appear to offer the best long-term option to fully decarbonize transport.
biofuels trends
Biofuels Trends
  • Biofuels use is growing rapidly around the world due to market forces and government policies.
  • The cost-effectiveness of biofuels GHG reductions is improving due to higher oil prices.
  • Sugar ethanol GHG reductions are essentially free.
  • Advanced biofuels processes could provide greater GHG reductions and use non-food feedstocks.
  • Global biofuels potential appears substantial and free trade could benefit many less-developed countries.
energy technology perspectives model
Energy Technology Perspectives Model

Primary

energy

Conversion

sectors/processes

Final

energy

Demand

sectors/processes

Useful

energy

Electricity

production

Industry

Fossil fuels

Gasoline

Natural gas

Electricity

Coke

Hydrogen

Heat

etc.

Refineries

Heating

Cooling

Power

Moving

etc.

Coke ovens

Transport

Renewables

Heat

production

Residential/

commercial

Nuclear

Hydrogen

production

policy actions analyzed to reduce co 2 emissions in motor vehicles
Policy Actions Analyzed to ReduceCO2 Emissions In Motor Vehicles
  • Fuel Economy/Advanced Technology Vehicles
    • Establish or raise fuel efficiency standards.
    • Alternatively use “feebates.”
    • Subsidize the purchase of advanced technology vehicles.
    • RD&D to develop improved advanced vehicles.
    • CO2 taxes/value.
  • Low Emission Fuels
    • Establish mandates to use minimum levels of qualified low-emission fuels.
    • Subsidize low-emission fuels or alt-fuel vehicles.
    • RD&D to reduce the cost to produce low-emission fuels.
    • CO2 taxes/value.
sustainable vs unsustainable biofuels development
Sustainable vs. UnsustainableBiofuels Development
  • Biofuels should not be developed if they:
    • Compromise food supplies and food aid.
    • Replace rain forests and other CO2 sinks.
    • Adversely affect bio-diversity.
    • Deplete water supplies.
  • All governments should adopt sustainability safeguards in their biofuels policies.
example indonesian palm oil
Example: Indonesian Palm Oil
  • Indonesia’s 1997-8 forest and peatland fires were equivalent to 40% of all global emissions from burning fossil fuels that year (Nature, November 7, 2002).
  • 600 million tonnes of carbon released annually from draining peat for plantations
  • Most Indonesian Palm Oil has net emissions through:
    • 1. forest clearance
    • 2. peat decomposition
    • 3. both (where swamp forest is cleared for new oil palm plantations, as in areas of Riau and Jambi)
biofuel observations
Biofuel Observations
  • Palm oil production in former rain forests do not provide net CO2 emission benefits except after 5-6 decades.
  • Therefore, rain forest palm oil/sugar cane is a counterproductive GHG mitigation strategy (& it has a catastrophic impact on biodiversity).
  • Available biomass resources can also be used to reduce emissions in the power generation sector.
  • The current interest in biofuels is mainly driven by two factors: agricultural policies and oil security policies.
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Rapid growth of motor vehicles outside of EU and NA will increase motor vehicle emissions.
  • Nonetheless, reducing this growth is necessary to combat higher GHG concentrations.
  • We conclude that improving motor vehicle efficiency is the win-win GHG strategy.
  • Advanced technologies combined with regulatory policies can significantly reduce the growth of motor vehicle emissions without imposing high taxes/values on CO2 emissions.
  • CO2 taxes would have relatively small impacts on transport relative to other energy sectors.
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BACKUP SLIDESREDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES

Carmen Difiglio

U.S. Department of Energy

Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies

August 20, 2007

etp model regions
ETP Model Regions

OECD-Regions

  • US
  • Canada
  • Mexico
  • Western Europe
  • Eastern Europe
  • Japan
  • Australia and New Zealand
  • South Korea

Non-OECD Regions

  • FSU
  • China
  • India
  • Rest of Asia
  • Latin America
  • Africa
  • Middle East
technology choice in markal
Technology Choice in MARKAL

Technology Characteristics

Energy Sources Used

Efficiency

Costs (Capital and O&M)

Availability

Dynamic LP Optimization

Energy Resources

Cost and Availability

Energy Service Demands

By Sector/Region

Technology Mix for Each Time Period That Satisfies Energy Demand Given Constraints

Other Assumptions

Long-Term Discount Rate

System Reserve Requirements

Other Constraints

Max. CO2 Emissions by Time Period

how hybrids work
How Hybrids Work
  • Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) combine the benefits of gasoline engines and electric motors.
  • They can be configured to obtain different objectives, such as improved fuel economy, increased power, or additional auxiliary power for electronic devices and power tools.
  • Some of the advanced technologies typically used by hybrids include
    • Regenerative Braking
    • Electric Motor Drive/Assist
    • Automatic Start/Shutoff