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Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21 st Century

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Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21 st Century. Expected outputs:. Country-level projections of GDP per capita and population derived from SRES storylines;. Population projections. GDP projections. Expected outputs:.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Hands-on practice:

developing GDP per capita and total population projections

for your country in the 21st Century

slide2

Expected outputs:

  • Country-level projections of GDP per capita and population derived from SRES storylines;
slide3

Population projections

GDP projections

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Expected outputs:

  • Country-level projections of GDP and population derived from SRES storylines;
  • Preliminary analysis on the range of projections under different SRES storylines, and on the consistency of the projected trends with relation to current trends;
  • Selected presentations (two volunteers required!) to share with the group:
    • The projections;
    • Insights on the credibility of such projections; and
    • Comments on the process of downscaling SRES storylines to country-level socio-economic projections
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Data to work with:

  • Projections of GDP growth and population change (both in percentage terms) for Asia derived from the four SRES storylines;
  • World Bank country-level population in 1990;
  • World Bank country-level growth rate of GDP during 1990~2003;
  • World Bank country-level GDP in current US$ for 2003;
  • The equation below can be used to calculate the GDP or population for a given decade following a particular SRES storyline:
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Time lines:

  • Projections – 20 minutes;
  • Analysis – 20 minutes;
  • Presentations and discussions – 20 minutes