ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE CHALLENGING

1. ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY:MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE CHALLENGING Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 3rd Anchorage School District Conference on Personalizing Education April 21 and 22, 2006 Anchorage, Alaska

2. Alaska in the 21st Century ACS 2002, 165 Large Metro Areas

3. THE ENDURING MYTH

4. ECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR ALASKA Shares of Personal Income in 2000

5. Alaska in the 21st Century Economic Trends to Watch • Petroleum is the Future • Slowdown in Federal $ • More Urban • Lower Wage • More Non-Wage Income

6. Alaska in the 21st Century

7. Alaska in the 21st Century

8. Federal Aid Per Capita:Highest in the US

9. THE MAILBOX ECONOMY

10. NEW RESOURCES

11. Alaska in the 21st Century

12. Anchorage at 90 Shares of New Jobs 1990-2000 by Sex ????????

13. Alaska in the 21st Century

14. Alaska in the 21st Century

15. Alaska in the 21st Century

16. Anchorage at 90 Anchorage: THE BEGINNING

17. Anchorage at 90 Anchorage: TODAY

18. Where are the Jobs?

19. Private Service Economy

20. Alaska in the 21st Century Anchorage/Matsu Population Growth

21. Alaska in the 21st Century Matsu Growth Driver: Commuters

22. Alaska in the 21st Century Commuters to Anchorage Earn More

23. Alaska in the 21st Century Selected Characteristics of the Region ANCH MATSU Extra Females 65+ 1,706 6 White 72% 88% Owner Occupied 60% 79% College + 29% 18% “Born in the USA” 90% 96% In Labor Force 74% 66% Children<6, Parents Work 61% 53% Median HH Income (000$) $55.5 $51.2 Families with Kids<5 in Poverty 11% 17%

24. Alaska in the 21st Century POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTIONS WHITE NATIVE OTHER ANCHORAGE <20 64% 14% 22% 40+ 79% 8% 13% MATSU <20 83% 12% 5% 40+ 92% 5% 3%

25. Alaska in the 21st Century Groups of Interest: How Are They Doing? • Workers • Women • Families • Other Households • Low Income • Alaska Natives • Other Minorities • Children • Young Adults • Baby Boomers • Seniors • Cheechakos • Sourdoughs • Military

26. Anchorage at 90 Some Challenges Using the Census • Small Sample Size • Self Reporting of Information • Definitional Quicksand • A Decade Can Mask Lots of Change

27. Alaska in the 21st Century

28. Alaska in the 21st Century ANCHORAGE VS. MATSU

29. Alaska in the 21st Century

30. Alaska in the 21st Century INTERSTATE MOVEMENT 1995-2000 OTHER STATES 52,105 ABROAD ??? OTHER STATES 31,385 ABROAD 4,755

31. Alaska in the 21st Century INTRASTATE MOVEMENT 1995-2000 25% Remote Rural Alaska 19% Matsu 16% Frbks 13% Kenai Peninsula 27% Other 11,413 IN FROM 12,222 OUT TO 42% Matsu 17% Kenai Peninsula 12% Remote Rural 11% Frbks 18% Other

32. Alaska in the 21st Century Gross Migration: Who Came and Went 1995 to 2000? • Overall • 35% more left • Race • 52% more Whites left • 60% more Asians arrived • Income • Movers had lower incomes • Household Type • 61% more Married Couples Left • Education • More folks in the “middle” left • Age • Baby boomers & their kids left

33. Alaska in the 21st Century Recent Immigrants Are Different

34. Alaska in the 21st Century A Measure of Diversity

35. Alaska in the 21st Century Racial Composition of Anchorage Civilian Population • ShareGrowth • in 2000 from 1990 • TOTAL 19% • White 73.3% +4% • Ak Native 10% ??? • Asian 5.2% +27% • Black 5.2% +20% • Mixed 5% na • Pacific Islander 1.3% 415%

36. Alaska in the 21st Century Age Distribution of Anchorage Population in 2000 • <10 Boomer • (36-54) • White 15% 46% • Asian 17% 40% • Black 19% 37% • Ak Native 25% 31% • Pacific Islander 27% 26%

37. Alaska in the 21st Century Racial Diversity in the Schools

38. Alaska in the 21st Century CHILDREN

39. Alaska in the 21st Century Share of Households with Children in 2000 • White 39% • All HH 42% • Asian 51% • Black 53% • Ak Native 48% • Pacific Islands 69%

40. Anchorage at 90 Share of Children Living in Different HH Types by Race: 2000

41. Alaska in the 21st Century Families with Children • All Families Female no Husband % • All 36,765 7,839 21% • White 27,284 4,623 17% • Black 2,613 946 36% • Native 2,342 1,089 46% • Asian 1,898 338 18% • Pacific Is 343 90 26% • Other 905 233 26% • 2+ Races 1,483 520 35%

42. Alaska in the 21st Century Below Poverty Threshold in 2000 ($17,500 for Family of 4): Total Persons Children • White 4% 5.8% • All HH 5% 9.3% • Asian 10% 21.3%* • Black 11% 13.8 • Pacific Islander 14% 21.3%* • Ak Native 9% 16.3% • US Total 12.4% 16.6%

43. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

44. Alaska in the 21st Century Alaska Natives

45. Alaska in the 21st Century

46. Alaska in the 21st Century Native Women Outnumber Men in Anchorage in 2000

47. Alaska in the 21st Century Real Earnings of Native Women

48. Alaska in the 21st Century Native Household Composition: Urban vs Rural

49. Alaska in the 21st Century Seniors

50. Alaska in the 21st Century Alaska Senior Rankings • #50 Share of Population • #2 Growth Rate in Seniors • #1 Baby Boomer Share of Population