Forecast Systems/THORPEX DAOS

1. Forecast Systems/THORPEX DAOS Tom Keenan WGNR Geneva 8-10 Feb 2011

2. Forecast Systems • Forecast system development is underway in a number of countries (some collaboratively). • This activity is essential to fulfill service and product delivery requirements within the various National Meteorological Services. • In many ways forecast system activities are the way to incorporate end-to-end use of NWP output, real-time observations and forecaster skills to produce products. • Naturally the impact these systems can be quite profound for NMS given they form a key interface in service provision. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

3. Forecast Systems • In principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC (2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems. • WWRP issues for consideration included : • Exchange of information on system development and implementation, including the costs and benefits of forecast systems and processes • Establishment of standards and criteria for assessing systems and their components • Facilitating comparative studies on alternative solutions to problems in the design and implementation of systems and processes The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

4. Forecast Systems-Forum • WWRP -CBS the forum should report on operational developments as well research. • The scope of the report should encompass forecast systems and processes required for nowcasting to medium range prediction. • Consider capacity building given forecast systems are currently being developed in a limited number of countries. • The role of “limited” and “automatic” systems should be explored. Such changes to culture and forecast processes will impact many NMSs. • Links to commercial developments also requires consideration in many countries. • This forum should act to establish some common values and directions and eventually look more at external issues of product refinement for clients. • Initially a focus on the internal technical issues related to product generation seems best but this needs to be discussed. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

5. Forecast System Considerations • Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality •     nowcasting •     short-medium term •     hydrology •     advanced user needs and capacity building; • Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings •     Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output •     Conceptual models •     Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process •     Visualisation  •     Verification •     Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systems • Man Machine Mix Issues- •     Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation   • Approaches to Forecast System development •     (manual, matrix, object grid etc) •     digital forecast databases, user interaction etc • Forecast Sub-Systems and Applications •     Automatic Text generation •     Graphical product •     Dissemination and communication techniques • Potential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

6. Outcome: Forecast Systems Working Group • Promote forecast processes, system development and their integration in weather/ hydrological prediction on time scales ranging from nowcasting to medium range forecasting • Act as conduit to end-users for product definition and refinement • Build on developments in NWP and associated techniques for the generation of forecasting products and service provision • Provide an expertise and assist WMO members in the development and implementation of Forecast systems and processes  • Promote and coordinate experimentation and intercomparison of various forecasting systems and processes with a view to refining the forecast process and product generation • Provide data sets and undertake verification associated with forecast systems,  The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

7. JSC 2008 • Decision: The WWRP-JSC recognizes the importance of examining the entire forecast system in mitigating disasters from high impact weather as the users are typically not provided with detailed numerical output, but rather highly processed products. • The WWRP-JSC asks that Tom Keenan and the WWRP take the lead in meeting the WMO Executive Council action for a workshop by relevant parties within the WMO on forecast systems leading to a specific proposal for a workshop. The WWRP-JSC encourages efforts to involve the climate community and CBS in this workshop. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

8. 2003 2013… Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society and economy A photographic collage depicting the societal, economic and ecological impacts of severe weather associated with four Rossby wave-trains that encircled the globe during November 2002.

9. What is THORPEX? • THORPEX was established in May 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress as a ten-year international global atmospheric research and development programme under the auspices of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) • THORPEX is a component programme of the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

10. Why? • To reduce and mitigate natural disasters; • To fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved weather forecasts especially in developing and least developed countries. This is achievable by transforming timely and accurate weather forecasts(1) into specific and definite information in support of decisions(2) that produce the desired societal and economic outcomes(3) • Extending the range of skilful weather forecasts to time scales of value in decision-making (up to 14 days) using probabilistic ensemble forecast techniques; • Developing accurate and timely weather warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools; • Assessing the impact of weather forecasts and associated outcomes on the development of mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of natural hazards. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

11. Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies • Improved use of observation • Quantify observing system errors; • Develop methods for efficient utilisation of high-volume datasets; • Improve use of satellite observations; • Improve assimilation of physical processes • Targeting techniques • Refine targeting strategies; • Generalise existing targeting techniques; • Test targeting algorithms for a wide range of weather systems; • Design observational networks • Adaptive Data Assimilation • Improve background-error covariances in existing assimilation schemes; • Develop methods for cycling flow-dependent background errors; • Develop adaptive quality control: • Incorporate model uncertainty into data assimilation procedures The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

12. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

13. Impact of Radar Data on NWP HRRR reflectivity verification Skill vs. forecast length All HRRR forecasts Radar CSI No Radar Forecast Length 30 dBZ reflectivity on HRRR 3-km grid Verification period 23 June – 25 Aug 2008 WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

14. Impact of Radar Data on NWP ECMWF 1d+4dVAR 12h Window T511 L60 20May-20 June 2005 Hourly RR 4 km NCEP grid Rain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integrated for pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVAR New-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analyses Well structured drying and moistening Forecasts: Clear improvement over NA first 3 days Improvement over Europe days 7-8 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

15. Nowcasting - From WSN09 2009 w/ radar refl assim (RUC/HRRR) 2005-7 Pre-radar assimilation ~2002 Crossover equal skill – extrap vs. NWP WSN09 Stan Benjamin – Ming Hu, Steve Weygandt, Dezso Devenyi NOAA Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) Boulder, Colorado USA The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology • “Since the 0-6 hour period spans the timeframe where both traditional Nowcasting techniques and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) can contribute useful information, both approaches will be covered at the Symposium as well as methods that combine Nowcasting and NWP. ” • 2009 status • NWP, blending, nowcasting methods have all improved since WSN05 (Toulouse, 2005) • Crossover time between NWP and nowcasting is now smaller

16. Current Use of Radar in DA Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in operational NWP systems The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

17. THORPEX-Link to Mesoscale (One day forecast)-and Nowcasting • Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (WGMWFR) • Mesoscale data assimilation: investigations on the strengths and limitations of different data • assimilation approaches, and observation impact studies • A major challenge for mesoscale DA is the provision of analyses and 0-3h forecasts of adequate accuracy for nowcasting purposes. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

18. Relevant International Coordination • Joint Meeting of CBS-Expert Team on Surface-based Remotely Sensed Observations and CIMO Expert Team on Remote sensing Upper air Technology, 23-27 Nov, Geneva-Paper 2.1(2) • CIMO ET (Oguzhan) and CBS ET (Goldstream) with significant input from Malcolm Kitchen • Potential for radar and Profiler data • Bi-lateral and multilateral arrangements e.g., Europe-facilitated by EUMETNET (OPERA), Carribean, Baltic, US etc The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

19. Global Use of Radars Another important issue to be considered and studied to benefit from weather radars is assimilation of weather radar data for numerical weather prediction models to have more accurate products from these models. The trainings and seminars on this subject should be organized for the counties which has not expertise on this subject. ASSESS THE CURRENT AND POTENTIAL CAPABILITIES OF WEATHER RADARS FOR THE USE IN WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVERING SYSTEM (WIGOS ) by Ercan Büyükbaş, Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

20. R.A. VI Europe (49 Members) 239 radars) R.A. IV North America, Central America And the Caribbean (25 Members 207 radars) R.A. II Asia (35 Members 482 radars) R.A. I Africa (56 Members 26 radars) R.A. V South-West Pacific (22 Members 85 radars) R.A.III South America (13 Members 4 radars) WMO/OMM The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

21. Courtesy JMA Shingo Yamada Courtesy CMA and XIAODING YU The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

22. International Coordination • Data Exchange Key Issue • Integral Role of Regional Processing Centres (OPERA EMETNET-European Data Centre 2011) • Raw reflectivity and radial wind in native polar in a range of formats (I and Q??) • Exchange of raw data from all elevations at high spatial and temporal resolution • Providers need to consider • Reflectivity calibration, radial wind, pointing angles, time stamps etc • International agreement on metadata, involvement of commercial providers • Consistent national processing before exchange • NWP centres will be a major driver for exchange along with hydrological community The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

23. Radar Quality and Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Intercomparison Project-Paul Joe (EC) • Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO-XIV) recommended that CIMO collaborate with the radar community in developing a series of intercomparison workshops to evaluate the differences between current signal processing and data processing algorithms used by operational weather radars. • RQQI project aims to validate, verify, and identify the best quality control algorithms and to specify the quality of the products, radars, and the QPE fields under a range of conditions The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

24. Role of THORPEX/WWRP • NWP will be the major driver for exchange of radar data • Facilitate demonstration projects that use radar information, impact evaluation of regional radar data in THORPEX activities e.g. T-NAWDEX,TPARC. YOTC….. • Activity directly relevant to DAOS, WWRP Mesoscale WG, Nowcasting WG • Encourage and support session/workshops that will facilitate use of radar data in NWP • Melbourne (SREP), NCAR(NWG,MWG) • Liaise with NWG –RQQI over QC, calibration issues • ERAD 2010 RADMON Workshop • Improve QC e.g., satellite data e.g, TRMM/ Cloudsat for radar calibration and alignment • WMO Training for NWP and radar DA The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

25. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Thank you Tom Keenan CAWCR DIR Phone: +61-3-96694483 Email: T.Keenan@bom.gov.au Web: www.cawcr.gov.au Thank you www.cawcr.gov.au The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

26. News on the European Weather Radar Network (OPERA) Iwan Holleman, Laurent Delobbe, and Anton Zgonc The OPERA programme (Operational Programme for the Exchange of weather RAdar information) is the Weather Radar programme of EUMETNET, the Network of the European Meteorological Services (NMSs). The objective of OPERA is to harmonize and improve the operational exchange of weather radar information between national meteorological services. The first OPERA programme (1999-2003) put emphasis on the specification of the meteorological products to exchange, the second programme (2004-2006) increased the exchange and use of the weather radar data in Europe with a pilot of an European datahub for weather radar data was established at the UK Met Office. The third phase of OPERA runs from 2007 till 2011 and is managed by KNMI (Programme Manager : Iwan Holleman). It is designed to firmly establish the Programme as the host of the European Radar Network. An operational weather radar Data Centre will be developed and start of operation early 2011. WMO Symposium on Nowcasting, 30 Aug-4 Sep 2009, Whistler, B.C.,Canada The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

27. Network composite of surface rain 2-5 km resolution, 15 minutes, Needs of NWP and hydrological modelling-assimilate radial wind, reflectivity and other data in mesoscale models Resolution (spatial and temporal e.g., flash flood < 5 min), QC (calibration, bias, known quality) Consistency in data implies QC and correction applied uniformly The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology