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THORPEX-Africa: Programme to Mitigate the Effects of Natural Disasters for the Benefit of the African Society. Aïda Diongue Niang * , Ernest Afiesimama , Arona Diedhiou , Andre Kamga Foamouhoue , Benjamin Lamptey , Ousmane Ndiaye , * Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale Senegal

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THORPEX-Africa: Programme to Mitigate the Effects of Natural Disasters for the Benefit of the African Society.

AïdaDiongueNiang*, Ernest Afiesimama, AronaDiedhiou, Andre KamgaFoamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, OusmaneNdiaye,

* Direction de la MeteorologieNationale Senegal

E-mail: aida_dniang@yahoo.fr


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Outline

  • Meteorological and Climate related Natural Disaters

  • THORPEX programme

  • THORPEX-Africa:

    • Challenges

    • Science Plan

    • Implementation Plan

    • Regional Committee and Way Foreward

    • Co-operation and Collaboration


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90% of Disasters are Climate, Meteorology and Hydrology related (Number of Events, 1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium


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Africa: nearly 85 % of Economic Losses from Natural Disasters are related to Flood and Drought(in West Africa from 1980 to 2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium


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Strong Link between Climate/Meterological conditions and some Diseases

Meningitis

Malaria

Dust events

High humidity

Lowhumidity

Temperature: factor of limitation

Rainfall


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Strong Link between Climate/Weather and Agriculture/Food Security/Water Resources

Severe droughts

in the 70’s and 80’s in the Sahel

Water Resources shortage

Very low cereals production

Hunger

Livestock / 2

Rural exodus

Strong correlation between

rainfall and water ressources

etc


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Need to improve Security/Water Resources

Forecasting system

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate

Energy

Water Resource

Management

Food security

Strong Wind

Transport

Coastal Marine Hazards

Intensity

Industry

Health

Tropical Cyclones

Urban areas

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Exposure is increasing!

High-impact

weather events

Drought Conditions

Heat waves

Frequency


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What is THORPEX? Security/Water Resources

  • THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment: a ten-year R&D programme as part of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP).

  • Key research meteorological component of the WMO Natural Disaster Reduction and Mitigation Programme

  • The final goals of THORPEX are:

    • Reduction and mitigation of natural disasters and the adverse effects of weather ;

    • Realization of societal, economic and environmental benefits of improved weather forecasts.


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What THORPEX will do? Security/Water Resources

End-to-end forecast system: holistic approch

Predictability and DynamicalProcesses

(PDP)

Observing System

Data Assimilation and ObservingStrategies

(OS/DAOS)

  • Societal and EconomicResearch and Applications (SERA)

THORPEX provides support for development of plans that meet regional needs


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THORPEX-Africa Security/Water Resources

  • Challenges:

    • Poor observing system: inaccurate initial state, lack of reliable climatological data;

    • High deficiencies in models and forecasting systems: inaccuracy in weather forecast and climate prediction;

    • Inappropriate telecommunication systems for exchange of meteorological and climate data within Africa and with the international community;

    • Inappropriate human resoources often unable to meet up with rapid technological developments;

    • Weakness in communication infrastrcture to users;

    • Lack of awarness by stakeholders on the value of meteorological information in socio-economic development and environmental protection


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THORPEX-Africa: Science Plan Security/Water Resources http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/thorpex/index_en.html

By an African Task Force

  • To Define the Objectives

  • To Identify the Major Issues

  • To Address Scientific Questions in Each Subprogram

  • To Describe the Cross-cutting Tasks relating to Improvement of Infrastructures and Telecommunications facilities, Enhancement of Capacity Building, Conduction of Demonstration Projects…

  • To Identify Collaboration and Co-operation needed


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THORPEX-Africa Implementation Plan: Security/Water Resources OS/DAOS

  • Temp messages received at ECMWF on May 04, 2005 with very limited

Temp messages received at ECMWF on May 04, 2005 with very limited observations over Africa.

Promote investigations focusing on impacts of additional field campaigns observations on high impact weather analyses and forecasts over all Africa;

Increase the use of satellite data;

Promote assimilation of different available observing platforms ( AMDAR, GPS, etc);

Improve sensors calibration and bias corrections algorithms with field campaign data,

Frequency of Temp messages entre 2000 et 2006


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THORPEX-Africa Implementation Plan: Security/Water Resources PDP

Model simulations: squall line over Niger

Build Catalog of High-impact weather systems in each African sub-region

Evaluate the Representation of High-impact weather related processes and phenomena in NWP systems and Monitor the Forecasting Systems Performance.

Enhance Capacity building on Limited Area Models (LAMs) by identifying existing opportunities in Africa and coordinate efforts by promoting mobility of researchers

Develop more Conceptual Models for African High-impact weather events (contribution to the Handbook project)

Use Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to estimate forecast uncertainties and investigate sub-seasonal forecasting.

Satellite image: Tropical cyclone Eline provoking

flooding in Mozambique and Madagascar


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THORPEX-Africa Implementation Plan: Security/Water Resources SERA

  • Conduct Forecasts Demonstrations to disseminate meteorological information and assess its utility in sensitive sectors. 

  • Build a High-impact weather Information System based on existing results and high-impact weather catalog (see PDP)

  • Improve Communication on Forecast Uncertainties,

  • Develop and test of user relevant forecast verifications systems,

  • Assess of cost /benefits of forecast improvements.

Priority applications sectors identified:

- Disaster and water management

Agriculture, Fishery, Health

Aviation, Energy

Energy

Water Resource

Management

Food security

Transport

Industry

Health

Urban areas


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THORPEX-Africa: Security/Water Resources Regional Committe and Way Foreward

9 members representing the 5 African regions with 2 co-chairs

  • Complete the implementation plan by April 2008

  • Seek Endorsement of the THORPEX –Africa Science and Implementation Plans to NMHS and Research Institutes via WMO

  • Disseminate the Plans to all stakeholders  

  • Build strategic co-operation with international institutes

  • Build partnerships with sensitive public and private organizations, with development partners to mobilize resources for Implementation

  • Monitor, facilitate implementation and prepare progress reports.


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Levels of Co-operation Needed Security/Water Resources

  • Between all stakeholders(academic institutions, operationalcenters, decision and policymakers, end-users, etc) to ensure the success of the end-to-end forecast system

  • In Africa to coordinate efforts and enhanceknowledge and know-how exchanges.

  • With major overseas NWP centers(due to limitedcapacity in modeling and trainedhuman ressources in Africa)to interact in order to improveAfricanclimate and weatherforecasts.

  • With international organizationsinterested in climate and weather , eg. UNESCO/ICTP, TWAS, ICSU, etc to support efforts in capacity building

  • Between THORPEX and WMO relevant programmes and otherregionalprojects, e.g.

    • AfricanMonsoonMultidisciplinary Analyses : AMMA-THORPEX WG

    • CLIMDEV for a seamlessforcasting systemfromclimate/seasonal to short-term .


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Status of cooperation in Meteorology Security/Water Resources

Given the fact that:

  • No barriers for meteorological phenomena and existing global teleconnections

  • An international framework, i.e. WMO and other relevant programmes, to facilitate co-operation for operational needs, to support R&D and training activities, to encourage meteorological applications to sensitive sectors

  • Opportunity to take for African Researchers and Policy/Decision Makers to Enhance R&D activities in Climate and Meteorology for the Benefit of the African Society.


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AMESEGNALEHU! Security/Water Resources


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