Global Systems Division contributions to Warn-on-Forecast. Steve Koch Director, ESRL Global Systems Division. February 18, 2010. Topics and Tasks. Best approaches to radar data assimilation Storm-scale ensemble predictability studies MADIS Metadata and QC improvements
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Global Systems Division contributions to Warn-on-Forecast
Director, ESRL Global Systems Division
February 18, 2010
Function of DFI: Remove high-frequency oscillations (particularly, gravity waves) from the initial state for the forecast
3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Currently: GSI 3DVar Data AssimilationFuture (?): Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)
Four IOPs: IOP1, 4, 10, 12
Models: 2 WRF-ARW (Thompson and Ferrier), MM5 (Schultz), RAMS
over the American River Basin
Reliability curves and the Brier skill score improved.
Internal frequency histograms changed.
Error bars: 90% confidence intervals
NOAA Must Make HPC a Top Priority Investment !
Innovate or become obsolete …
NOAA’s ability to meet its mission via HPC is falling further behind by any measure. The science will go where there is computing capability to advance it.
GSD is researching Graphical Processor Units (GPU)
Meteorological Assimilation and Data Ingest System (MADIS)
Surface Data Density Before MADIS
Surface Data Density After MADIS
MADIS Computing Environment
and Quality Control
Port the existing GSD MADIS software to an integrated NWS TOC and NCO distributed environment, with a supporting backup and research-to-operation test environment at GSD.
Current Mesonet Stations with 5-minute Data - 690
Current Mesonet Stations with 15-minute Data -13,810
Current Stations + UrbaNet + ASOS/AWOS + APRSWXNET + AWS with 5-minute Data by 2011 – 14,574
Blue – current Red – UrbaNet Brown – ASOS/AWOS Black – APRSWXNET and AWS
Despite the tremendous number of sites being ingested, QC’d, and distributed through MADIS, the data are still largely distributed like “oases and deserts”. Adaptive multi-scale analysis techniques that utilize the temporal information (GSD STMAS multi-grid 3Dvar) are required.
Challenge: Non-uniform data distribution