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2018 CO 2 Emission Projections for the SESARM States

2018 CO 2 Emission Projections for the SESARM States. Prepared by: Byeong- Uk Kim, Jim Boylan, and Keith Bentley GA EPD – Air Protection Branch October 22, 2013. Background.

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2018 CO 2 Emission Projections for the SESARM States

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  1. 2018 CO2 Emission Projections for the SESARM States Prepared by: Byeong-Uk Kim, Jim Boylan, and Keith Bentley GA EPD – Air Protection Branch October 22, 2013

  2. Background • The President’s climate action plan in June 2013 reiterated his 2009 goal of a 17% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 from a 2005 baseline. • EGU emissions trending downward due to: • Lower natural gas prices • Closure of older inefficient units • Compliance with CAIR and MATS • Compliance with state rules • Increases in renewable energy and nuclear • EPA seeking state input on how 111(d) requirements should be implemented • Need reference point as starting point for discussions

  3. Approach • Extracted 2018 heat input values by fuel type (coal, oil, gas) from ERTAC EGU projection tool. • 2011 CAMD heat input data was used as the starting point for the projections • Applied ERTAC growth factors by fuel type from the AEO 2013 Report • Applied emission controls submitted by the states • Applied CO2 emission factors (TPY CO2/MMBTU) to projected 2018 heat inputs for each fuel type. • State specific CO2 emission factors (EFs) derived from 2005 CAMD data for coal, oil, and gas • National CO2 emission factors for coal, oil, and gas • Compared 2005 and 2011 CO2 emissions with 2018 projected CO2 emissions.

  4. Methodology

  5. State Derived CO2 Emission Factors *Due to 2005 and 2011 CAMD data issues with WV Oil, SEMAP Oil CO2 Emission Factor was based on data from nine states.

  6. Heat Input Trends

  7. Alabama

  8. Florida

  9. Georgia

  10. Kentucky

  11. Mississippi

  12. North Carolina

  13. South Carolina

  14. Tennessee *Due to limited data samples for TN Gasin the 2005 CAMD data, 2011 CAMD data was used to derive the TN CO2 Emission Factor for Gas.

  15. Virginia

  16. West Virginia *2005 and 2011 CAMD data for WV included heat input data for Oil, but no CO2 emissions. Therefore, 2005 and 2011 CO2 emissions for WV were back-calculated with the SEMAP CO2 Emission Factor. **2005 and 2011 CO2 emissions for WV were back-calculated with the National CO2 Emission Factor.

  17. SEMAP

  18. Summary: Method 1

  19. Summary: Method 2

  20. Summary: Method 3

  21. Summary

  22. Conclusions • Different methods give slightly different results • Percent reduction varies between states • Need closer examination of data and assumptions • SEMAP states overall project 17-18% reduction from 2005-2018 • Some people are happier than others about the situation

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