Baseline emission projections for the revision of the Gothenburg protocol

1. Baseline emission projections for the revision of the Gothenburg protocol Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) EMEP Steering Body Geneva, Sept. 8-10, 2008

2. -12% PM -15% NOx PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures(-20% CO2 in 2020) Business-as-usualnational energy projections(+3% CO2 in 2020) -40% SO2 Future air pollution emissions in the EU-27depend on climate policies

3. PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures(-20% CO2 in 2020) Business-as-usualnational energy projections(+3% CO2 in 2020) Estimated loss in statistical life expectancy (EU-27)due to the exposure to anthropogenic PM2.5 in 2020(Source: IIASA’s GAINS model) Months Months

4. €20 bn/yr Emission control costs to meet the EU air quality and climate targetsEU-27, 2020 (Source: IIASA’s GAINS model) Business as usualNational energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures (-20% CO2 in 2020)

5. Findings have been reported in CIAM Reports to the Working Group on Strategies and Review

6. Activity projections presented to WGSR42 Decision of WGSR41: Energy projections should include climate policies. National projections with climate policies are currently unavailable. Activity projections presented in CIAM Report 2/2008 to WGSR42: EU-27: • PRIMES energy projection that meets the targets of the EU Climate and Energy Package (as in NEC Report#6) • National agricultural projections submitted to CIAM Other Parties: • Latest available projections available at CIAM • Most date back to 1996 • No responses received to requests from WGSR

7. Baseline CO2 emissions

8. Baseline emissionsrelative to 2000

9. Environmental impacts Impact indicators: • Loss in statistical life expectancy attributable to PM2.5 • Ecosystems with nitrogen deposition in excess of critical loads (using ecosystem-specific deposition calculation) • Forest and catchment areas with acid deposition in excess of critical loads • Cases of premature deaths attributable to ozone Assumed boundary conditions: • Emission from ships: without recent MARPOL proposal • Hemispheric ozone: +2.4 ppb in 2020 • Five-years meteorological conditions

10. Baseline impact indicatorsrelative to 2000

11. Baseline impacts calculated for 2020 PM2.5: Loss in stat. life expectancy Eutrophication: Ecosystems area > CL Acidification: Forest area > CL Acidification: Freshwater catchment > CL

12. Uncertainties and sensitivities • Baseline projections are sensitive towards • Underlying activity pathways: Assumptions about employed activity pathways have received only limited review by Parties • Assumed implementation of national legislation: Conservative assumptions have been used for EECCA countries. • Assumptions on boundary conditions • Implementation of additional measures for ships could result in significant lower environmental impacts • If baseline projections should serve as starting point for negotiations, above assumptions must be shared by Parties.

13. Uncertainties and sensitivities • Baseline projections are sensitive towards • Underlying activity pathways: Assumptions about employed activity pathways have received only limited review by Parties • Assumed implementation of national legislation: Conservative assumptions have been used for EECCA countries. • Assumptions on boundary conditions • Implementation of additional measures for ships could result in significant lower environmental impacts • If baseline projections should serve as starting point for negotiations, above assumptions must be shared by Parties.

14. Two emission scenarios for non-EU countries that have not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol • Baseline projection: • No add-on emission controls except for TSP from stationary sources • “With measures” scenario: • FGD for new and retrofit of 50% of old plants in 2020 • Low sulphur fuels (1% heavy fuel oil, 0.1% light fuel oil, 0.05% diesel • Industrial processes: -50% SO2 , -40% NOx, and current EU PM emission standards for new Member States • Primary NOx measures for boilers • Euro 4/IV for diesel and gasoline vehicles • Improved electrostatic precipitators for large boilers

15. Emission control potentials for SO2

16. Emission control potentials for NOx

17. Emission control potentials for PM

18. Emission projections for non-EU PartiesBaseline projection and “with measures” scenario

19. Loss in statistical life expectancydue to anthropogenic PM2.5 Baseline projection 2020 With measures scenario 2020

20. Potentials of major control measures compared to 2020 baseline projection • FGD for new plants: -40% SO2 • 0.05% S diesel: -10% SO2 • Euro-4 for passenger cars: -13% NOx, -2% PM2.5 • Euro-IV for heavy duty vehicles: -8% NOx, -4% PM2.5 • EU PM emission limit values for new Member States for stationary sources: -16% PM2.5 • In 2020, implementation of these measures would reduce health impacts from PM by 40 percent. • In addition, major health improvements would result from a phase-out of solid fuels in households

21. Revised TFIAM workplan 2009after WGSR42 meeting • Tutorial workshop on baseline scenarios: Feb 2009 • TFIAM meeting on 2050 aspirational scenarios: Feb 2009 • Deadline for submissions of national baseline scenarios: May 31, 2009 • TFIAM meeting on national baseline scenarios: June 2009 • Presentation of GAINS baseline scenarios to WGSR: Sep 2009 • Policy analysis at CIAM: Oct-Nov 2009 • TFIAM meeting on target setting & sensitivity: Dec 2009 • Presentation of policy scenarios to EB: Dec 2009

22. Assumptions on boundary conditions for which advice from EMEP SB would be appreciated • Background ozone 2000-2020: +2.4 ppb? • 5 yr meteorological conditions (1996-1997-1998-2000-2003) for source-receptor relationships? • Other suggestions?