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Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions

Monique Hoogwijk 9 November 2006. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions. Wind energy potential. What determines the potential of wind energy? Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; Area availability (km 2 ); Power density of wind park (MW/km 2 );.

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Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions

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  1. Monique Hoogwijk 9 November 2006 Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions

  2. Wind energy potential What determines the potential of wind energy? • Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; • Area availability (km2); • Power density of wind park (MW/km2); Potential = Power Density * Available Area * Load Factor

  3. Wind electricity costs Costs; • Isp turbine (f(Rated power); • O & M; • Installation costs; • Overhead costs (concession, Environmental Impact Assessment); • Distribution costs (not included); • Grid integrated costs (back up, spinning reserve, discarded/storage costs) (not included); Output; • Wind resource, rated power Annuity; • Interest rate • Economic lifetime turbine

  4. Technical Parameters • Rated power • Hub height • (Rotor diameter) • Power density • Current installed turbines and replacement rate • Onshore and offshore • For 2006; 2020 and 2030 + wind speed = load factor

  5. Historical Development

  6. Overview Offshore Projects Source: Van Hulle et al., 2004.

  7. Proposal Assumptions

  8. Cost Parameters • Main investment costs • Turbine costs • Foundation • Electric installation • Grid-connection • Consultancy • Land costs • Financial costs, as security • Road construction • Main Operation and maintenance costs

  9. EWEA, 2003; Junginger, 2005 ; ECN, 2004

  10. Cost developments over time • Bottom up estimates • up-scaling • material • rotor diameter • etc • Experience curves • Historically derived • Progress ratio and future doubling

  11. Onshore Experience Curves Source: Junginger, PhD thesis 2005

  12. Cost reductions Offshore Source: Junginger, Faaij & Turkenburg, 2003, Accepted for publication by Wind Engineering

  13. Operation and Maintenance • Insurance, service and spare parts, land rent etc • Varies during lifetime 2-3 % up to 5% of investment costs ( ~ 1 ¢/kWh). • O&M costs can be reduced over time • Here, reduction assumed with investment cost reduction

  14. Future Developments • Typical Progress Ratios wind turbines: 80 – 90% • 7 – 35% reduction of capital costs (71 - 300 GW). • For offshore: Bottom up estimates: up to 40% reduction in 2020. Please note the global developments are not included in experience curve Sources: EWEA, 2006; Junginger, 2005, Neij et al., 2005

  15. Sensitivity Analysis; examples • Rated power and load factor • Replacement rate • Power density • Specific Investment costs • Area availability • Land use variation • Urban planning

  16. Not Included in Technical Potential • Land pattern change over time • Implementation in grid over time • Possibly limited approach on replacement • System cost reductions e.g. combination grid connection offshore

  17. Thank youM.Hoogwijk@ecofys.nl

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