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CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013

CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013. Outline of Discussion. CRR Auction Discussion: Summary of Recently Completed Auction Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence Sharyland L oad Impacts on CRR model

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CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013

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  1. CRR Update to CMWG David Maggio Congestion Management Working Group September 4, 2013

  2. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  3. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  4. Summary of Recently Completed Auction September Monthly Summary • Credit Lock                                        = $170 million • Number of participatingCRRAH = 163 • Number of bid/offer transactions    = 143k • Number of cleared Transactions     = 15k • Net Revenue of Auction               = $6 million 2013 Monthly CRR Auction Results

  5. Current Inventory • Below is an update of the CRR inventory taking into consideration the September monthly auction

  6. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  7. Reminder of the Upcoming Long-term Auction Sequence • ERCOT staff is beginning to develop models for the first block of the next Long-term Auction sequence November December January February Sequence1 Jan-Jun 2014 60% Sequence2 Jul-Dec 2014 45% Credit Lock and Run Dates 10/28/13 – 11/15/13 Sequence3 Jan-Jun 2015 30% Credit Lock and Run Dates 11/18/13 – 12/6/13 Sequence4 Jul-Dec 2015 15% Credit Lock and Run Dates 1/6/14 – 1/24/14 Credit Lock and Run Dates 1/27/14 – 2/14/14

  8. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  9. Sharyland Load Impacts on CRR Model Source: http://www.su-power.com/docs/SU_ServiceMap.pdf

  10. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  11. Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • ERCOT reviewed the Transmission Project Information Tracking (TPIT) reports to analyze the ~12 month ahead and 6 month ahead accuracy • The June 2012 TPIT was used for the ~12 month ahead • The December 2012 TPIT was used for the ~6 month ahead • Staff considered projects that were listed as “under construction” or “planned” with In-Service dates in April, May, or June of 2013 and focused on projects such as: • New transmission lines or transformers • New substations or buses • Major line upgrades • The real-time model and data was used to determine when the new or upgraded equipment was in service

  12. Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Summary of the ~12 month ahead analysis • Of the 27 projects that were analyzed, 4 were early or on time • 19 were not energized or not in the real-time network model as of 8/12/13 • 3 out of the 3 projects with April In-Service dates • 11 out of the 14 projects with May In-Service dates • 5 out of the 10 projects with June In-Service dates • New TPIT In-Service dates for these projects were as late as June 2014 • For the remaining 8 projects: • 0 had an April In-Service date • 3 had a May In-Service date (1 was 84 days late, 1 was 7 days early, and 1 was 36 days early) • 5 had a June In-Service date (3 were 39 days late, 1 was 8 days early, and 1 was 12 days early)

  13. Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Summary of the ~6 month ahead analysis • Of the 29 projects that were analyzed, 3 were early or on time (4 if you include a project that was within 2 days) • 16 were not energized or not in the real-time network model as of 8/22/13 • 3 out of the 4 projects with April In-Service dates • 5 out of the 9 projects with May In-Service dates • 8 out of the 16 projects with June In-Service dates • New TPIT In-Service dates for these projects were as late as December 2013 • For the remaining 13 projects, 3 were early or on time • 1 had an April In-Service date (85 days late) • 4 had a May In-Service date (1 was 98 days late, 1 was 23 days late, 1 was 7 days early, 1 was 36 days early) • 8 had a June In-Service date (1 was 72 days late, 1 was 53 days late, 3 were 39 days late, 1 was 27 days late, 1 was 2 days late, 1 was 12 days early)

  14. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  15. Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions • Treatment of SPSs and RAPs in multi-month auctions • For SPSs, the practice has been that they are included in all CRR auction models are only removed when the SPS is deactivated • This practice will be continued • As the discussed last month, ERCOT staff will be updating the “expiration date” nomenclature in the RAPs to “review date” • This is more in line with the annual review practice • Like SPSs, RAPs will be included in all CRR auction models until the time that the RAP is deactivated

  16. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  17. CRR Update on NPRR 484 Phase 1a CRR Code Received from Vendor: • Phase 1a code in CRR (integration with CMM) validated • Phase 1a code in CRR (credit pre-calculations) just commencing • Still on track for late October release in time for the Fall 2013 LTAS for CRR enhancements

  18. NPRR484/554 Project Update • First Market Call was July 31, 2013 • http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2013/07/20130731-NPRR484 • Market participant training for NPRR484/544 will be available on the following dates • ERCOT is requesting that all Market Participants attend one of the sessions CMWG August 2013

  19. Outline of Discussion CRR Auction Discussion: • Summary of Recently Completed Auction • Reminder of Upcoming Long-Term Auction Sequence • SharylandLoad Impacts on CRR model • Update on Planning Model Changes in CRR Auctions • Update on Treatment of SPS and RAPs • Update on NPRR 484 • CRR Roadmap update

  20. CRR Roadmap Update 2013 2014 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Parking Deck: NPRR455 Shift Factors NPRR463 Potential improvements CRR API functionality PhaseShiftTxfrmr Optimization Improved Contingency definitions CRR Linux Upgrade stabilization/Decommission NPRR463 – 6 month/Rolling Auction • Oracle 11G Vendor testing • Nexant testing (Summer) • Oracle 11G ERCOT migration • ERCOT FAT/iTest/Prod NPRR484 Phase 1a- CRR/Credit (Oct) NPRR484 Phase 1b- CRR/Credit follow-on NPRR407 Phase 2- CRR Credit reporting SCR769 CRR Read-Only Report Access Increase above 200,000 bids: Early Lab test complete, ERCOT support of more scenarios Stress testing 300,000 bid limit on Linux for Q1 of 2014 (v13.1)

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