Ees 306 carbon emission projections
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EES 306 Carbon Emission Projections. Projections to 2030. Quad. Btu is a basic unit of energy MBtu = 1 million Btu = 8 gallons gasoline Qbtu = 1 billion MBtu = 8 billion gallons gasoline Quad = 1 Qbtu = a quadrillion Btu Q stands for quadrillion and means a million billion.

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EES 306 Carbon Emission Projections

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EES 306Carbon Emission Projections

Projections to 2030


Quad

  • Btu is a basic unit of energy

  • MBtu = 1 million Btu = 8 gallons gasoline

  • Qbtu = 1 billion MBtu = 8 billion gallons gasoline

  • Quad = 1 Qbtu = a quadrillion Btu

  • Q stands for quadrillion and means a million billion.

  • The sequence is k (1000), M (million), G(billion), T (trillion), Q (quadrillion)


Primary Energy

  • Primary energy is the original energy resource such as the energy in coal or oil, before any transformation to secondary or tertiary forms of energy.  For example, coal can be converted to synthetic gas, which can be converted to electricity; in this example, coal is primary energy, synthetic gas is secondary energy, and electricity is tertiary energy


Fossil Fuels

  • 86% of global primary energy is fossil fuels.


OECD

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

  • There are 30 member countries in the OECD.

  • OECD countries are more developed than other countries.

  • The US, Europe, and Japan belong to the OECD.


Non-OECD

  • This includes the less developed countries. China and India belong to this group.


Projection: Global Population

  • US population is about 300 million and global population about 6.5 billion.

  • Global population will increase to 8.3 billion by 2030, mostly in less developed countries.


Projection: Energy Consumption

  • Primary energy consumption will increase by 40% by 2030. Most of this growth in LDCs.


Projection: Problems

Major problems:

  • Over-population

  • Fuel resources

  • Air and water pollution

  • Global Climate Change

  • Carbon Dioxide emission  Climate Change


C + O2 CO2

CO2 Emission


Global Carbon Dioxide Emission


CO2 Concentration

Pre-Industrial value: 280 ppm (600 billion tons)

Current value: 380 ppm (800 billion tons)

Critical value: 560 ppm (1200 billion tons)


Temperature Projections


Business As Usual


Stabilize CO2 emissions!


Projection: Opportunities

Growth in LDC wealth means raising more people in LDCs out of poverty. Greater wealth means greater use of fossil fuel energy and greater environmental impact. Can we break this link?


GDP

  • Gross Domestic Product is the value of all goods and services produced in a country.

  • Per Capita GDP = GDP/Population

  • US GDP is about $37,000.

  • This is a measure of a country’s economic health.


Energy Intensity

  • Energy Intensity

    = Primary Energy Consumption/ GDP

  • US Energy Intensity is about 9,000 Btu/$

  • This is a measure of how much energy it takes to produce goods and services.

  • It is a measure of efficiency. Lower energy intensity means greater efficiency.


Carbon Intensity (of Energy)

  • Carbon Intensity

    = CO2 Emission/ Primary Energy Consumption

  • US Carbon Intensity is about 60 MMT/QBtu

  • This is a measure of how much CO2 is emitted while consuming primary energy

  • Switching from coal to natural gas or to renewable energy will lower carbon intensity.


Projected CO2 Emission

  • CO2 emission = Population x Per Capita GDP x

    Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity

  • US CO2 emission = 300 million x $37,000 x

    9000 Btu/$ x 60 MMT/QBtu

    = 6 billion Metric tons

  • This is 1/5 of global carbon emission.


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