Simulation of air traffic over the north atlantic airspace
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Simulation of Air Traffic Over the North Atlantic Airspace. E. A. Elsayed Rutgers University Presented at TLI Meeting November 15, 2000 Sponsored by FAA 1995-2000. Reykjavik. Gander. Shanwick. New York. Santa Maria. Current Separation Standards. Longitudinal separation 10 min.

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Simulation of air traffic over the north atlantic airspace

Simulation of Air Traffic Over the North Atlantic Airspace

E. A. Elsayed

Rutgers University

Presented at TLI Meeting

November 15, 2000

Sponsored by FAA 1995-2000


Simulation of air traffic over the north atlantic airspace

Reykjavik

Gander

Shanwick

New York

Santa Maria


Current separation standards

Current Separation Standards

Longitudinal separation 10 min

Vertical separation 2000 feet

Lateral separation 60 nm


Future separation scenarios

Future Separation Scenarios

Vertical Lateral Longitudinal Crossing

Baseline

RVSM 1

RVSM 2

RVSM 3

RVHSM

Free Flight

RVSM - Reduced Vertical Separation Minima

RVHSM - Reduced Vertical Horizontal Separation Minima


Historical data

Historical Data

  • 4th and 15th of each Month in 1996

  • All Flights Crossing 20° Longitude in 24 Hour Period

  • Summer Data from April - October ... 14 Days

  • Winter Data from November - March ... 10 Days

  • Military Air Craft Included


Historical flight events format

Historical Flight Events Format

Call Sign AC Type, Mach Fuel Date, US Dollar % Payload

Origin - Destination Date, Hour Min Time Track

No Restrictions


Classification of flight regions

Classification of Flight Regions

Region Description


Flight regions

Flight Regions

Region Description


Distribution of air craft types

Distribution of Air Craft Types

Model 2000 2005 2010


Air craft types

Air Craft Types

Model 2000 2005 2010


Verifications flight events

Verifications: Flight Events

  • Generation of flight events: NICE groups used the following to generate flight events

    Traffic growth by region (TFG)

    Changes in aircraft distributions

    Speed distributions for aircraft

    TOW, Directions, Payload

    Historical data obtained by Iceland Radio for 24 day in 1996


Verifications flight events1

Verifications: Flight Events

  • Statistically generated flight events: used by NICE-USA

    • generated flight events were compared with actual flight events of 1996 and future expectations

  • Incrementally generated flight events: used by NICE-ICE and NICE-UK

    • add incremental flights to 1996


Simulation of air traffic over the north atlantic airspace

Entry Time by Direction - 1996


Simulation of air traffic over the north atlantic airspace

Entry Time for Region 2: Winter Westbound 2010


Simulation of air traffic over the north atlantic airspace

Number of Flights by Region: Winter East 2000


Nice models and verifications

NICE Models and Verifications

AMELIA – Icelandic CAA/University of Icelanl(NICE-ICE)

INAATSM – US FAA/Rutgers University (NICE-USA)

NATSIM – UK NATS (NICE-UK)

LIDO (Flight Planning)


Nice models

NICE Models

  • INAATSM – US FAA/Rutgers University (NICE-USA)

    • Developed an optimization algorithm to obtain optimal flight plans (Minimum Fuel Track)

    • NICE-USA uses automated conflict detection and reclearance logic, programmed into the fast-time simulation models.


Verifications flight plans

Verifications: Flight Plans

  • Flight Plans: LIDO vs. NICE-USA

    Same flight events used by NICE-USA and NICE-ICE and LIDO to determine optimal flight plans.

    Fuel consumption and origin-destination time are compared.


Typical flight plan

Typical Flight Plan

1047 11263020840 44.53 57.42 999.00 45.00 48.00 50.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 12.00 35.00 999.00 35.00 37.00 37.00 37.00 39.00 39.00 81092.562500 13121.882812 RN 40.38 73.46 50.02 -8.33 650287.00 159337.062500 24845.792969 KJFK EDDF


Verifications flight plans1

Verifications: Flight Plans


Verifications flight plans2

Verifications: Flight Plans


Verifications flight plans3

Verifications: Flight Plans


Lido vs nice usa flight plan comparisons flight levels

SUM

-3000 ft

-2000 ft

-1000 ft

0

1000 ft

2000 ft

3000 ft

TOTAL

208

1

35

1

136

0

32

3

%

100%

0%

17%

0%

65%

0%

15%

1%

LIDO vs. NICE-USA Flight Plan ComparisonsFlight Levels


Lido vs nice usa flight plan comparisons lateral deviations

SUM

- +

-4°

-3°

-2°

-1°

TOTAL

208

3

5

9

28

51

87

19

10

2

1

%

100%

1%

2%

4%

13%

25%

42%

9%

5%

1%

0%

LIDO vs. NICE-USA Flight Plan ComparisonsLateral Deviations


Fuel consumption

Fuel Consumption


Fe stat 2010 fuel results

FE Stat 2010 Fuel Results


Fe stat summary fuel results

FE Stat Summary Fuel Results


Fuel savings mean fuel savings in 1000s tons per year

Fuel SavingsMean fuel savings in 1000s tons per year


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