The potential for further reductions of pm emissions in europe
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The potential for further reductions of PM emissions in Europe. M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Contents. CAFE baseline emission projections Scope for further technical and non-technical reductions of primary PM emissions

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The potential for further reductions of pm emissions in europe

The potential for further reductions of PM emissions in Europe

M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)


Contents
Contents

  • CAFE baseline emission projections

  • Scope for further technical and non-technical reductions of primary PM emissions

  • How do measures directed at PM10 affect PM2.5?

  • Cost-optimized reductions to reduce ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Europe



Rains pm emission estimates vs national inventories 2000

National inventory

RAINS estimate

RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000

PM10

PM2.5


Cafe emission baseline with climate measures baseline projection eu 25
CAFE emission baseline With climate measures” baseline projection, EU-25



Main emission control options for pm 850 options considered in rains
Main emission control options for PM850 options considered in RAINS




Projected pm emissions in europe 2000 2020
Projected PM emissions in Europe2000-2020

EU-15

EU-10

Non-EU


Sectoral emissions of pm2 5 cafe calculations eu 15
Sectoral emissions of PM2.5CAFE calculations, EU-15


Sectoral emissions of pm2 5 cafe calculations eu 10
Sectoral emissions of PM2.5CAFE calculations, EU-10


Sectoral emissions of pm2 5 rains estimates non eu countries
Sectoral emissions of PM2.5RAINS estimates, Non-EU countries


Contribution to primary pm2 5 emissions with climate measures scenario eu 15 kt
Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15 [kt]


Scope for non technical measures
Scope for non-technical measures

  • Local traffic restrictions

    • Difficult to model (with RAINS)

  • Accelerated phase-out of solid fuels in home heating

    • E.g., removal of subsidies for local coal heating, or EU structural funds for replacement of heating systems

  • General reduction of carbonaceous fuel consumption through a carbon tax

    • CAFE analysis: illustrative scenario with 90 €/t CO2 carbon price (compared to 20 €/t CO2 in baseline)


Scope for non technical measures effect of a 90 to co 2 carbon tax according to primes calculations
Scope for non-technical measuresEffect of a 90 €/to CO2 carbon tax, according to PRIMES calculations

With maximum technically reductions

With current legislation


PM10 vs. PM2.5

How do measures directed at PM10 affect PM2.5?


Removal efficiencies of control measures efficiency for pm10 efficiency for pm2 5
Removal efficiencies of control measures[Efficiency for PM10 / efficiency for PM2.5]


Share of pm2 5 in pm10 emissions from different sources
Share of PM2.5 in PM10 emissionsfrom different sources


Cost-optimized emission reductions to reduce health-relevant PM2.5 concentrations in Europe

Based on WHO advice of assuming equal potency of all anthropogenic PM components


Cost optimal emission reductions for meeting the cafe pm targets
Cost-optimal emission reductions for meeting the CAFE PM targets



Sectoral emission reductions of pm2 5 for the cafe case b policy scenario beyond cle eu 25
Sectoral emission reductions of PM2.5for the CAFE Case B policy scenario, beyond CLE, EU-25


Sectoral emission reductions of pm2 5 for the cafe case b policy scenario
Sectoral emission reductions of PM2.5for the CAFE Case “B” policy scenario


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • In EU-25, primary PM emissions will decline by approx. 40% between 2000 and 2020 because of CLE (as are NOx and VOC emissions). No significant changes in non-EU countries.

  • In EU-25, equal amount could be reduced in addition with currently available technical measures.

  • Largest potentials for further reductions in domestic sector and for industrial processes.

  • Co-benefits of PM2.5 reduction on PM10 depend on sector and measure chosen (and vice versa).

  • Cost-effective approaches to reduce health-relevant PM concentrations involve other precursor emissions. Majority of costs occur for controlling other pollutants than for PM.

  • In a cost-effective approach, largest reduction of primary PM should come from small sources and from industrial processes.


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