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Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010

Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions and Adapt to Climate Change: A Brief Status Report. Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010.

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Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010

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  1. Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions and Adapt to Climate Change: A Brief Status Report Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010

  2. WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported Tuesday “As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning for another season," National Weather Service president John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have changed." Fall Canceled After 3 Billion Seasons Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  3. Overview • Mitigation – Focus on Transportation and Land Use • Adaptation – Focus on Hazards Planning Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  4. Existing State Legislative Goals for GHG Reduction • By 2010 stop growth • By 2020 – 10% below 1990 • By 2050 – 75% below 1990 HB 3543 (2007) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  5. Oregon GHG Goals vs. Forecast Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  6. Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  7. Key Recent Oregon Legislation • Mitigation • HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, Global Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute) • SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard) • HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard 10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years) • HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target for Portland Metro, transportation and land use planning to meet target) • SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target for other MPO areas) • Adaptation? Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  8. HB 2001 and SB 1059 • Portland Metro (HB 2001) • Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT • Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011 • Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012 • LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred scenario by 2013 • Preferred Plan adopted and implemented beginning in 2013 • Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene-Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059) • Statewide Strategy (OTC) • Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011 • Toolkit, Planning Guidelines Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  9. Statewide Transportation Strategy • Statewide strategy for reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector to aid in achieving legislated GHG reduction targets. • To be adopted by the Oregon Transportation Commission. • Policy Committee • Technical Advisory Committee • LCDC Rulemaking to Set • Metropolitan Area Light Vehicle GHG Emissions Targets • Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Technical Info for LCDC Rulemaking ODOT, DEQ, and ODOE provide estimates of 1990 light vehicle GHG emissions and forecasts of future vehicle fleet and fuel characteristics. • Scenario Planning Guidelines • Guidelines and process for metropolitan areas to develop land use and transportation scenarios to meet GHG reduction targets. • Technical Advisory Committee Toolkit Information on actions and programs local governments may undertake to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles. Public Education Statewide public outreach and education about the need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles and about the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions. Scenario Planning Financial Report Joint ODOT, DLCD, local governments report to 76th Legislative Assembly on financing scenario planning Progress and Recommendations Report Joint ODOT & DLCD report to 77th Legislative Assembly regarding SB 1059 progress.

  10. Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Fuels, VMT • By ODOT, DEQ, ODOE • 1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of: • Vehicle fleet • Fuels • VMT • Informs state strategy and target setting • Advisory Committees • All advisory committees will review • Schedule • Final due by March 1, 2011 • Draft expected sooner Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  11. Statewide Transportation Strategy • By ODOT/OTC • Covers transportation sector; statewide • State programs and policies to reduce GHG • Includes assumptions about federal policies • Advisory Committees • Policy Committee • Technical Advisory Committee • Schedule • Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles • Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, marine, rail etc.) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  12. By LCDC For each metropolitan area Informed by agency estimates and statewide strategy Advisory Committee Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) Schedule Due by June 1, 2011 Target Rulemaking Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  13. Scenario Planning Guidelines • By ODOT and DLCD • Advisory • Process for scenario planning • Steps/ who does it • Assumptions • Evaluation methods • Allow for a range of actions for reducing GHG • Integrate with existing planning processes • Advisory Committee Scenario Planning Technical Advisory Committee • Schedule • Draft by April 2011 • Final Fall 2011 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  14. Toolkit • By ODOT and DLCD • Best Practices for GHG reduction • Local & regional programs and actions • Provide examples • Document GHG reduction effects • Identify benefits/ co-benefits • Recommend Analysis and Modeling Tools • Schedule • Draft by April 2011 • Final Fall 2011 • Cool Planning: Version 1.0 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  15. Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  16. Cool Planning(www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  17. Scenario Planning Funding Report • By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with metropolitan local governments • Estimate funding local governments need to conduct scenario planning • Schedule • Report to Legislature due January 2011 • Consultation starts later this month Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  18. Education & Outreach • Strategy to be developed • Outreach to public about • Need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicle travel • Costs and benefits of GHG emission reduction Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  19. Part 2:Climate Change Adaptationin Oregon • Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial recommendations for adaptation • OCCRI – State of the Climate Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010) Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  20. Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregon 1. Increase in average annual air temperatures 2. Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, changes in timing of water availability 3. Increased incidence of drought 4. Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges related to intensification of North Pacific winter storms 5. Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely increase in invasive species and reduced ability of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species and populations Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  21. Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregon 6. Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and increased ocean acidification 7. Increased frequency of extreme daily precipitation events 8. Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity 9. Increase in incidence and magnitude of damaging floods 10. Increase in incidence of landslides 11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests 12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  22. Outline of Adaptation Framework 1. Risk assessment 2. Likelihood of the risk 3. Timing and geography of the risk 4. Related risks 5. Summary of consequences of the risk Ecosystems Built and developed systems Economic systems Public health and safety 6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 7. Needed actions a. Priority Actions b. Actions that apply to several risks c. Additional actions 8. Implementing the framework a. Information base for decisions b. Monitoring c. Coordination with local governments, federal agencies, & other partners 9. References Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  23. Adaptation Framework: Short-Term Priority Actions • For each major risk – short term priority actions that the state should consider (low hanging fruit) • Initial cost-benefit analysis • Delivered to the new Governor and legislature in December 2010 Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

  24. Questions? More Information: GHG Mitigation in Transportation: Bob Cortright [bob.cortright@state.or.us] Climate Adaptation Framework: Jeff Weber [jeff.weber@state.or.us] Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

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