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The Economic Impact of Immigrants in Minnesota. Katherine Fennelly Anne Huart Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs University of Minnesota. Enormous diversity: immigrants, refugees, low and high-skilled workers and their families. Aging citizens + Need for young work force
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The Economic Impact of Immigrants in Minnesota
Katherine Fennelly
Anne Huart
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs
University of Minnesota
Enormous diversity: immigrants, refugees, low and high-skilled workers and their families
Aging citizens+ Need for young work force
+ insufficient visas for workers =
large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US
The Graying of the U.S. Population
Projected Increase in U.S. Population Over Age 65
millions
Source: Fed. Interagency Forum on Aging, 2000
Projected Changes in US Labor Force 1998-2008: ThreeMillion Fewer Workers Ages 25-44
Workers 25-44
Workers 45+
Source: Dohm, 2000
Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011
Source: Stinson& Gillaspy, 12/05
Aging in Minnesota
By 2020 Minnesota will have more retirees than school children
Source: Atkins et al. 2020 Caucus Strib 2/26/06
Need for young work force
- demand for both high skilled and low skilled workers
Nearly 6 million new jobs will be created between 2004 and 2014 that require only short-term on-the-job training*
Percent of projected openings 2000-2010 by training required
* BLS; pie chart source: Paral, 2006 using BLS Data
Few Natives Available for Low-Skilled Jobs
Non-High School Graduates in 2005:
Native-born: 12 %
Foreign-born: 33 %
Foreign-born Hispanics: 54 %
Source: US Census Bureau, “Educational
Attainment in the US: 2005”, 9/06
Industries Relying on Unauthorized Immigrant Workers
- 21% of private household workers
- 24% of farm workers
- 17% of cleaning crews
- 12% of food preparation workers
- 12% of construction workers
- 10% of leisure & hospitality employees
Overall: 5% of US Civilian Workforce
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Fact Sheet “The Labor Force Status of Short-Term Unauthorized Workers, 2005” , April 13, 2006
Growth in Minnesota Labor Force Attributable to Latinos
1990 and 2000*
24%
Source: Census, U.S. Bureau of the. 1990 Census and 2000 Census Sf3MNPlanning Data Net, 2002 [cited 2/28/03 2003].
McMurray, Martha. "Minnesota Labor Force Trends 1990-2000." Minnesota Planning OSD-02-101, no. December, 2002
Selected Non-Metro Minnesota Cities with the Largest Hispanic Populations: School Enrollments With and Without Hispanic Students, 1999–2008
85000
80000
75000
70000
With Hispanics
Without Hispanics
65000
60000
55000
50000
99-'00
00-'01
01-'02
02-'03
03-'04
04-'05
05-'06
06-'07
07-'08
08-'09
Academic School Year
*School Districts Included: Crookston, Moorhead, St. Cloud, Willmar, Marshall, Glencoe Silver Lake,
Mankato, Northfield, Faribault, St. James, Worthington, Owatonna, Rochester, Albert Lea, Austin
Latino Children are Keeping Rural Schools from Closing or Consolidating
Open letter from 500 economists*, June, 2006
“Immigration is a net economic gain for America and its citizens, and the greatest anti-poverty program ever devised”
*including 5 Nobel Laureates
President’s Council of Economic Advisors, June, 2007
“On average, US natives benefit from immigration. Immigrants tend to complement (not substitute for) natives, raising natives’ productivity and income.”
Inequitable distribution of fiscal benefits
* In the short-term rapid demographic changes cause some stresses
* Funds that accrue at the federal and state levels and to large employers of immigrants don’t ‘trickle down’ to localities with high proportions of immigrants
Studies often over-state the cost of immigration by measuring costs before adults reach working age
High cost
investment
Low cost investment
Most immigrants pay the same taxes as US-born residents
- Income taxes
- Property taxes
- Sales taxes
- Business taxes
- Property taxes
- Fewer tax breaks
Restrictions Under NAFTA for Meeting the Demand for Workers:
- on the one hand, the free flow
of capital, goods, and services has
been expanded
- on the other hand, the flow of
labor has been the subject of
massive enforcement efforts and
legal restrictions
Source: US-Mexico Migration Panel, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2001
Percentage of Employment-Based Visas That Were Issued for Low Skilled Jobs: 2002*
Workers in less-skilled jobs received only 16 percent of all temporary employment and training visas awarded in 2002. (Paral, 2005)
Source: Jachimowicz, 2004
Value of goods exported from the US to Mexico in 2006:
$866,000,000,000
Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division,
Aging citizens+ Need for young work force
+ insufficient visas for workers =
large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US
