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The Economic Impact of Immigrants in Minnesota. Katherine Fennelly Anne Huart Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs University of Minnesota. Enormous diversity: immigrants, refugees, low and high-skilled workers and their families. Aging citizens + Need for young work force

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the economic impact of immigrants in minnesota
The Economic Impact of Immigrants in Minnesota

Katherine Fennelly

Anne Huart

Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs

University of Minnesota

enormous diversity immigrants refugees low and high skilled workers and their families
Enormous diversity: immigrants, refugees, low and high-skilled workers and their families
slide3

Aging citizens+ Need for young work force

+ insufficient visas for workers =

large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US

the graying of the u s population
The Graying of the U.S. Population

Projected Increase in U.S. Population Over Age 65

millions

Source: Fed. Interagency Forum on Aging, 2000

projected changes in us labor force 1998 2008 three million fewer workers ages 25 44
Projected Changes in US Labor Force 1998-2008: ThreeMillion Fewer Workers Ages 25-44

Workers 25-44

Workers 45+

Source: Dohm, 2000

aging in minnesota
Aging in Minnesota

By 2020 Minnesota will have more retirees than school children

Source: Atkins et al. 2020 Caucus Strib 2/26/06

need for young work force
Need for young work force
  • demand for both high skilled and low skilled workers
slide10
Nearly 6 million new jobs will be created between 2004 and 2014 that require only short-term on-the-job training*

Percent of projected openings 2000-2010 by training required

* BLS; pie chart source: Paral, 2006 using BLS Data

few natives available for low skilled jobs
Few Natives Available for Low-Skilled Jobs

Non-High School Graduates in 2005:

Native-born: 12 %

Foreign-born: 33 %

Foreign-born Hispanics: 54 %

Source: US Census Bureau, “Educational

Attainment in the US: 2005”, 9/06

industries relying on unauthorized immigrant workers
Industries Relying on Unauthorized Immigrant Workers
  • 21% of private household workers
  • 24% of farm workers
  • 17% of cleaning crews
  • 12% of food preparation workers
  • 12% of construction workers
  • 10% of leisure & hospitality employees

Overall: 5% of US Civilian Workforce

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Fact Sheet “The Labor Force Status of Short-Term Unauthorized Workers, 2005” , April 13, 2006

slide13

Growth in Minnesota Labor Force Attributable to Latinos

1990 and 2000*

24%

Source: Census, U.S. Bureau of the. 1990 Census and 2000 Census Sf3MNPlanning Data Net, 2002 [cited 2/28/03 2003].

McMurray, Martha. "Minnesota Labor Force Trends 1990-2000." Minnesota Planning OSD-02-101, no. December, 2002

slide14

Selected Non-Metro Minnesota Cities with the Largest Hispanic Populations: School Enrollments With and Without Hispanic Students, 1999–2008

85000

80000

75000

70000

With Hispanics

Without Hispanics

65000

60000

55000

50000

99-'00

00-'01

01-'02

02-'03

03-'04

04-'05

05-'06

06-'07

07-'08

08-'09

Academic School Year

*School Districts Included: Crookston, Moorhead, St. Cloud, Willmar, Marshall, Glencoe Silver Lake,

Mankato, Northfield, Faribault, St. James, Worthington, Owatonna, Rochester, Albert Lea, Austin

Latino Children are Keeping Rural Schools from Closing or Consolidating

open letter from 500 economists june 2006
Open letter from 500 economists*, June, 2006

“Immigration is a net economic gain for America and its citizens, and the greatest anti-poverty program ever devised”

*including 5 Nobel Laureates

president s council of economic advisors june 2007
President’s Council of Economic Advisors, June, 2007

“On average, US natives benefit from immigration. Immigrants tend to complement (not substitute for) natives, raising natives’ productivity and income.”

inequitable distribution of fiscal benefits
Inequitable distribution of fiscal benefits

* In the short-term rapid demographic changes cause some stresses

* Funds that accrue at the federal and state levels and to large employers of immigrants don’t ‘trickle down’ to localities with high proportions of immigrants

studies often over state the cost of immigration by measuring costs before adults reach working age
Studies often over-state the cost of immigration by measuring costs before adults reach working age

High cost

investment

Low cost investment

most immigrants pay the same taxes as us born residents
Most immigrants pay the same taxes as US-born residents
  • Income taxes
  • Property taxes
  • Sales taxes
  • Business taxes
  • Property taxes
  • Fewer tax breaks
restrictions under nafta for meeting the demand for workers
Restrictions Under NAFTA for Meeting the Demand for Workers:
  • on the one hand, the free flow

of capital, goods, and services has

been expanded

  • on the other hand, the flow of

labor has been the subject of

massive enforcement efforts and

legal restrictions

Source: US-Mexico Migration Panel, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2001

percentage of employment based visas that were issued for low skilled jobs 2002
Percentage of Employment-Based Visas That Were Issued for Low Skilled Jobs: 2002*

Workers in less-skilled jobs received only 16 percent of all temporary employment and training visas awarded in 2002. (Paral, 2005)

Source: Jachimowicz, 2004

slide25
Value of goods exported from the US to Mexico in 2006:

$866,000,000,000

Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division,

slide26

Aging citizens+ Need for young work force

+ insufficient visas for workers =

large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US