Future

1. Future Predictions are hazardous! I have previously predicted that the DP will end within about 10-15 years - primarily because of increasing international pressure driven by the human rights movement.

2. Future Worldwide abolition of the DP is continuing and is increasingly embedded in constitutional law -- (therefore permanent!) (EU, Canada, Mexico, South Africa, most of South America, and many others).

3. Future US has become increasingly isolated in this respect & US “moral authority” continues to erode because of this and other human rights abuses. Our claims about equality, democracy, human rights, etc., ring hollow in the face of such a shoddy legal system.

4. Future The US Supreme Court is “disengaging” from the DP and giving it back to states -- the result is chaos in many DP states many state courts are corrupt, politicized, and/or seriously overloaded with other cases

5. Future Some additional points to think about:

6. Future First: The collapse in Illinois is having ripple effects – the moratorium movement has spread - New Jersey and New Mexico adds to this (Maryland, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Connecticut) Note: Ill, NJ, NM, and Conn have all abolished

7. Future The systems can’t stand scrutiny – so once this starts it is very hard to stop. Probably no moratorium in Calif though! (Nearly abolished in a 2012 referendum!)

8. Future Maryland, for example: Kirk Bloodsworth mistake case (video) eventual multi-million dollar settlement --- and re-examination of whole system following national publicity

9. Future (2002) 13 prisoners on death row 9 black 4 white 7 B/W 2 B/B 4 W/W 80% hom victims black 80% death row victims white

10. Future 1923 to present 83 executions 64 black 19 white (75% B/W) 56 murder 27 rape (90% B/W cases) Governor recently ordered a moratorium on executions to “study the system”

11. Future Second: As the federal courts have withdrawn, the state appeals courts have become pivotal.

12. Future Most states that have DP don't really use it, and strong resistance develops when they try. This is interesting – probably indicates that courts and politicians know problems.

13. Future EXECUTIONS 2006 24 states 0 exec 8 states 1 exec each 6 states more than 1 total = 53 Texas 24 of the 53 (some DP states never exec at all!)

14. Future What is stopping executions in most DP states?? Mostly not the federal courts! Mostly state courts and politicians!

15. Future Actually using DP like LWOP! This is beginning to look a lot like what happened in the 1950s and 1960s. Moratorium campaign stopped execs at the state level long before Furman.

16. Future Politics of problems with DP begins to compete with politics - and costs - of "get tough" on crime - and balance shifts against DP.

17. Future If this continues, states that use the DP will be like some southern states and the confederate flag - sort of an anachronism - a symbol. Like Texas!

18. Future Third: High cost of DP trials/system

19. Future Imprisonment binge is costing billions - this is devastating to state budgets. Plus the economic downturn has also been disastrous for state budgets. Prisons bonded - costs will continue long after binge ebbs.

20. Future Abolishing the DP might end up as cost cutting with other CJS costs. LWOP will look financially attractive.

21. Future Conclusion – other views: Franklin Zimring and the American history of “vigilante justice” (lynching + dp for poor & minorities) Vigilantism vs. Due Process (fairness)

22. Future DP will end as doubts take hold in the middle of the political spectrum. 25% hard core support 20% hard core opposition 50%+ somewhat for, but now shifting against

23. Future William Schabas – an interesting point on which to end the class. Schabas, an Austrian, is a law professor currently teaching in Ireland. He is one of the key founders of the International Criminal Court. He visited ULV a few years ago and spoke in two of my classes.

24. Future Continuing global abolition of the DP has been developmental (gradual) and has almost without exception been based on debate about and adoption of emerging principles of “universal human rights”

25. Future China and Cuba still execute - but both recognize the DP as a human rights issue to be ended as soon as possible. China - peasantry not yet ready for modernization Cuba - perennial threat of attack by US

26. Future Schabas points out that in his travels in the US talking about the International Criminal Court and the DP, he has found virtually no discussion of the DP as it relates to human rights issues – instead all of the discussion centers around practical issues (much like this class does!) Hopefully, we will eventually enter into that discussion too

27. Future Thanks for taking the class!