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Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA

Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA. GONG Jiandong National Meteorological Center (NMC) China Meteorological Administration (CMA). CMA NWP Structure in Head-Quarter.

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Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA

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  1. Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA GONG Jiandong National Meteorological Center (NMC) China Meteorological Administration (CMA)

  2. CMA NWP Structure in Head-Quarter • Two units in CMA Head-quarter for numerical weather model development, (not include air pollution model and climate model) • Numerical Model Prediction Division at NMC (NMC/NWPD) • Center of Numerical Prediction and Research at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA (CAMS/CNPR) • CMA/CAMS/CNPR is a numerical model research unit, established in 2000, focuses on CMA next generational unified Global and Regional analysis and prediction system (GRAPES), with about 20 researches.

  3. CMA/NMC/NWPD STUFFS Education (Total FTE): 40 77.5 % have Master and Dr. Degree > 80% stuffs are undertaking the research and development 65% Age Education 12.5%

  4. CMA/NMC model development in history

  5. 48h 96h 144h 100 50rms 80 60 RMSE 40 20 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 B T63L16 T106L19 T213L31 T42L9 OPERATIONAL GLOBAL NWP IN NMCRMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERE

  6. Other CMA/NMC model development in history

  7. 2007-2008 Operational Systems • Basic Operational Systems：(operataional date) • Global -3DVAR & Global Medium Range Forecast System（T639L60, T213L31＋3DVAR,2002.9/2006.12，ATOVS>90%） • Meso-scale Forecast System（GRAPES-MESO 2006.8） • Global Ensemble Prediction System（T213L31-GEPS,15m，2006.12） • Global Typhoon Track Prediction System（T213-GTTP,2006.1） • Numerical Model Verification System（198x,199x） • Numerical Model Operation Support System（SMS，2006.1) • Basic Environment Prediction Systems： • Global/Regional/EPS Wave Forecast System（NMC-WAV,2005.8） • Regional Dust-Storm Prediction System（MM5/GRAPES,2006.12) • Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system（T213/WRF-HYSPLIT4,2001.9,2008.4） • UVI prediction System（T213-SUV，2004.6） • Forest-Fire Alert System（T213-FIRE,2004.6) • Weather Modification Meteorological Condition system (GRAPES,2007)

  8. Ship Radio-sonde Synop Pilot Conventionalobservations Aircraft

  9. AMSU-A n15,16 Track wind AMSU-B n15,16,17

  10. Operational model upgrade :T639L60 • Use NCEP-GSI with T639L60 resolution, with eta vertical coordinate to match model • Background error tuning. • Parallel upgrade to handle T639L60 resolution • NOAA 15/16/17 ATOVS 1b data assimilation tuning • Base on T213L31 model, and upgrade in • Linear Gaussian Grid (T213  T319) • SETTLS (Stable Extrapolation Two-Time_level Scheme), with kindly help of ECMWF • With Rayleigh friction above 9hPa • Upgrade new cloud and cumulus parameterization • Upgrade land-surface data • Upgrade land-surface model initialization scheme

  11. NH 500hpa ACC East Asia 500hpa ACC Annual mean SH 500hpa ACC Tropical 500hpa RMSE

  12. 0.6 4 TS Bias 小雨 T 213 小雨 T 213 小雨 T 639 3.5 0.5 小雨 T 639 中雨 T 213 3 中雨 T 213 中雨 T 639 0.4 中雨 T 639 大雨 T 213 2.5 大雨 T 213 大雨 T 639 大雨 T 639 暴雨 T 213 0.3 2 暴雨 T 213 暴雨 T 639 1.5 暴雨 T 639 大暴雨 T 213 0.2 大暴雨 T 213 大暴雨 T 639 1 大暴雨 T 639 0.1 0.5 0 0 36h 60h 84h 108h 132h 36h 60h 84h 108h 132h Precipitation

  13. The performance of theTC Track predict System MTTP GMTTP Mean track errors from 1995-2006

  14. 2007 Typhoon Track Forecast error (Km)

  15. Global Typhoon Track Ensemble Prediction System real-time Trial

  16. Global EPS upgrade Original T106 EPS New operational T213L31 EPS 等概率1/33=0.3 Red line for best spread EPS mean error Ensemble Mean Control Run 均方根误差 ACC Spread Control Run 预报天数 预报天数

  17. WWRPBeijing 2008 Olympics Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project (WWRP/B08RDP) • MEP RDP participating systems: • CMA meso-scale EPS (NMC/CAMS) • NCEP new version SREF • EC regional EPS • JMA global/meso-scale EPS • NCAR WRF system • Austrian weather service and Météo-France joint system (ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME)

  18. Rainfall observation CMA/NMC JMA/MRI More Products see http://www.b08rdp.org EC NCEP ZAMG/FR

  19. Weather Modification Condition Asia Dust Storm UV index Forest fire alarm

  20. Global Wave Ensemble Global Wave WAVEWATCH III Regional Wave Fine-scale Wave

  21. Noxious air dispersion （23日22时-26日20时) 开县高桥镇 3000米高度上传输路径 开县高桥镇 Distribute within 48 h （23日22时-25日20时) 1500米高度上传输路径 0-500米高度内传输路径 Global pollution transport and dispersion model system

  22. 5km regional pollution transport and dispersionmodel system After started，can provide 1~5km, 1hour interval noxious gas transport and dispersion products within 30 minutes Various height transport height Surface to 100m noxious gas dispersion (1hour interval)

  23. Multi-scale atmospheric unified dynamical structure CMA Next Generation Unified Model: GRAPES Meso-scale configuration Medium-Range Configuration Climate Configuration Ocean Model Plug in interface: Multi-scale Physical and Chemical processes Meso-scale processes Medium-range Processes Climate Processes Ocean Physics Global Analysis and Prediction System Climate Prediction System Meso-scale Analysis and Prediction System Forecast Model Adjoint Model

  24. Model Application Atmospheric Research Operational Implementation R_15km, G_60km Ensemble Forecasts Toward Climate modeling GRAPES Applications TC Forecasts Field exp. Simul. Nowcasting Training Tool Sand & Dust Forecasts Operationally implemented in NMC, RMCs (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Provinces, …); more than 50 group users (including universities, research institutions)

  25. New Advanced of NWP System Space Integrat. Semi-Lagangian Time Integrat. Semi-Implicit Resolution Multi-scales Dynamical Core Full compressible HY/NH GRAPES Vert. Coodinate H. Terrain Flw. Assimilation 3DVAR/4DVAR Phy. Schemes Full Phy. package Code Architec. Mod./Parall. Model Framework GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System） The project was launched since 2001. It is cosponsored and supported by Chinese MOST and CMA.

  26. Skill of Severe Weather Prediction

  27. Annual Average of ACC of Grapes-global Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Grapes-global will be put in parallel run this year

  28. 2010 Operational Systems (planed) • Basic Operational Systems： • Global -3DVAR & GFS ( T639L60＋3DVAR, GRAPES+3DVAR 50Km, ATOVS+AIRS+GPS/COSMIC,+Track wind>90%, ） • Regional-3DVAR & Model（GRAPES_Meso+3DVAR 15km, ATOVS+Radar+AWS+GPS/MET>90%, 1hour GRAPES-RUC） • Ensemble Prediction (T639L60control + T213L31/15-50 member, ET perturbation, WRF/GRAPES-meso EPS, 15-50m, TIGGE products ） • Typhoon Track （T639L60-GTTP, GRAPES-meso-RTTP, Global/Regional Typhoon EPS） • Verification （6 hour real-time verification, Real-time verification） • Operation Support System (SMS+WEB+PrepIFS+Database+GRID) • Basic Environment Prediction Systems： • Wave Forecast（T639L60-wave, 15/5km wave, wave-EPS） • Environment Emergency （T639L60-HYSPLIT, 15/5/1km HYSPLIT） • Hydrological Forecast ( two way nest) • Others (Dust-storm, forest fire, weather modification, UV-index)

  29. LDM Server LDM Server Srv-1: LDM Srv-2: Srv-3: MARS(testing) Srv-4: DB (testing) Srv-5: Srv-6: FTP Service Srv-0: CSM Server ECMWF NCAR CMA LAN Internet TIGGE DATA ARCHIVE CENTER Infrastructure (1) – current design ( For MARS Modification) NMC Users Receiving Data Typhoon Sending Data Providing Data Data processing 备份/恢复 EMC Legato Networker Service for Users GPFS FS-Manager 集群内通过GPFS共享数据 磁盘阵列

  30. Summary of TIGGE data at CMA (Data for Dec. 18. 2007)

  31. 谢谢

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