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North Dakota Shifting Demographics: Challenges and Opportunities

North Dakota Shifting Demographics: Challenges and Opportunities. Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center. Fall Professional Development Conference North Dakota Long Term Care Association Bismarck, ND Sept. 30, 2011. Presentation Objective:.

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North Dakota Shifting Demographics: Challenges and Opportunities

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  1. North Dakota Shifting Demographics:Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center Fall Professional Development Conference North Dakota Long Term Care Association Bismarck, ND Sept. 30, 2011 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  2. Presentation Objective: 1. To present an overview of historical shifts in population dynamics in North Dakota. 2. To examine recent shifts in elderly population. 3. To discuss future challenges for long term care in North Dakota. NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  3. Population • North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845. • The 2010 Census for North Dakota totaled 672,591, an increase of 30,391 persons from 2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  4. North Dakota Cass County 4 similar counties 40 similar counties McIntosh County NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  5. Percent Change in Population, 2000 to 2010 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  6. Rural-Urban Population Distribution in North Dakota NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  7. City Size in North Dakota: 2010% change 2000 to 2010 noted in red Note: Between 2000 and 2010, 83 of 357 incorporated places grew (23%) Note: Based on 357 incorporated cities Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  8. Population Change: 2002 to 2003 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  9. Population Change: 2008 to 2009 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  10. Gender Distribution in North Dakota Source: U.S. Census Bureau NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  11. Population Change 2000 to 2010 Only 11 of 53 counties gained population between 2000 - 2010 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  12. Shifting landscape of the senior population in North Dakota 1. Shifting concentration of seniors 2. Changes in household composition 3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  13. Population by Single Year of Age and Sex in the U.S. : 1970 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1970 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  14. Population by Single Year of Age and Sex in the U.S. : 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  15. Population by Single Year of Age and Sex in the U.S. : 2030 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections 2008 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  16. Generational Shifts • Mark Crossler , Extension Marketing Leader at Oregon State University designed the following illustrations NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  17. 36-55 21-35 0-20 56-70 71-85 86 + NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  18. 58.86 million 82.83 million 60.25 million and 27% larger than Millennials NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  19. 87.59 million 79.39 million NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  20. NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  21. NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  22. Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2000 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  23. Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2020 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  24. Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2010 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  25. Young Adults Ages 25 to 34 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  26. Young Children Ages 0 to 4 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  27. Shifting landscape of the senior population in North Dakota 1. Shifting concentration of seniors 2. Changes in household composition 3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  28. Households by Type in ND Source: U.S. Census Bureau NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  29. Household Types in North Dakota: 2010 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  30. Single Person Households North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  31. 1-Person Households Under 65 North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  32. 1-Person Households 65 Plus North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  33. Older Seniors 85 Plus: 2010 North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  34. Shifting landscape of the senior population in North Dakota 1. Shifting concentration of seniors 2. Changes in household composition 3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  35. U.S. Household Net Worth, 2007 to 2010 est. in billions Average 24.5% decline since 2007 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  36. Nonfarm Employment Growth in U.S. and Regional States; 2007 to 2009 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  37. NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  38. NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  39. Historical Rates of Unemployment, 1976 to 2009 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  40. U.S. rate 9.1% NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  41. Crude Oil Productionin North Dakota: 1952 to 2010 ND Ranking in oil production 9th in 2006 6th in 2008 4th in 2009 (only behind Texas Alaska, and California) 12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  42. Average Compensation Per Job by County in U.S.: 2009 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  43. Net Taxable Income Flow Due to Migration for ND: 2007-2008 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  44. Summary • Shift in the distribution of seniors • Household composition shift to non-families, especially single person HH • Robust economic climate has created opportunities and challenges for western ND • Strain for services • Inflated housing demand (higher rents, higher property taxes) • Challenges with dynamic population NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

  45. Demographics Changes • Dr. Richard Rathge, Director • North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050 • Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu • Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 • URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc

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