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OverviewCommunity Health Modeling Working Group Meeting Planning and Technical Support Division August 27, 2003 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency A_Overview_082703.ppt
Overview of the Day • Morning: • Overview of Current Efforts • Wilmington Protocol • Statewide Protocol • Afternoon: • December 2003 Board Item • Open discussion • Your feedback • Peer Review
RecapARB Policy Specific Actions • Regional maps showing estimated cancer health risks • ASPEN for now • Develop tools for assessments of cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risk on a neighborhood scale and provide maps showing the results at the neighborhood level. • Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (I.e, CHAPIS) • New Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps
Plan • Conduct refined, neighborhood-scale air quality modeling studies of toxic emissions for cumulative sources • Barrio Logan • Wilmington • Extend neighborhood-scale experience to approach that is applicable to any location in the State • Statewide Protocol
Micro-scale Neighborhood-Scale (Wilmington)
Modeling Framework Modeling Approach and Tools Statewide Modeling Protocol Emissions and Meteorology Wilmington Modeling Protocol Updates & Improvements Microscale Modeling RegionalModeling Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol Integrated Results Risk Assessment HARP Updated Modeling Protocol CHAPIS Mapping and Visualization
External Review Statewide Modeling Protocol • Working Group Evaluations • Independent Scientific Peer Review Panel • Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPA • Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis • Dr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc. • Dr. Steve Hanna, George Mason University Wilmington Modeling Protocol Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol
Challenges • Objective is New • Prior protocols based on regulatory applications • Regional Ozone Modeling (e.g. SIP) • Local Scale Single Sources (e.g. NSR, AB2588, etc) • No established metrics for model performance for annual toxics • New Protocols Currently Under Development • Cumulative Source Modeling Analyses • Workshops & Peer Review
Challenges (Continued) • Emissions • Stack Characterization and Activity Data for key sources • Higher Resolution for Areawide Sources (e.g. Offroad Diesel) • Consistency of Microscale and Regional Inventories • Meteorology • Microscale Input Availability and Representativeness • Consistency of Microscale and Regional Met (e.g. years) • Regional Met Model Run Times (~months) • Modeling • Performance Metric ‘Rigor’ not yet established • Regional and Microscale Model Choices • Mobile Source Input Data: Spatial and Temporal Resolution • Regional AQ Model Run Times (~months at 4km x 4km) • Interest in Finer Grid Resolutions • Integration • Double Counting of Emission Sources
Status • Barrio Logan (Pilot Study #1) • Peer Reviewed Protocol (Complete) • Field Study (Complete) • Modeling (Nearing Completion) • Wilmington (Pilot Study #2) • Protocol In Progress • Field Study In Progress • Statewide • Protocol Development In Progress
Schedule • October 2003 • CHAPIS • November 2003 • Final Barrio Logan Report • Final Statewide Protocol • Final Wilmington Protocol • December 2003 • Board Hearing • Regional Modeling Results: • Southern California – 1st Quarter 2004 • Northern California – 3rd Quarter 2004 • Microscale Modeling Results • Southern California – 1st Half 2004
Next…. • Neighborhood-Scale Protocol • Wilmington • Statewide Modeling Protocol • Regional Modeling • Microscale Modeling • Integration