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Climate Change, Energy, and Security

Climate Change, Energy, and Security . NS4053 week 8. Agenda. Uncertainty? Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo. Type of security concerns? Adaptation Consequence management Policy responses? Implications for energy security. Uncertainty? .

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Climate Change, Energy, and Security

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  1. Climate Change, Energy, and Security NS4053 week 8

  2. Agenda • Uncertainty? • Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo. • Type of security concerns? • Adaptation • Consequence management • Policy responses? • Implications for energy security

  3. Uncertainty? • Little uncertainty over direction of change. • Statistical analysis of data on climate. • Some uncertainty over speed of change. • Wide variety of sources and models on data. • Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions. • Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur.

  4. Energy, Security, and Climate Change • Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation, is a major contributor to climate change. • Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact: • Reduce use of fossil fuels • Increase efficiency in use of fossil fuels • Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change • Implications for energy security are mixed.

  5. Temperature anomalies (degrees)

  6. Temperature anomalies (SD)

  7. Types of climate change issues • Not just delta in temperatures • Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems. • Decline in polar ice caps. • Increase in number and duration of droughts. • Increased frequency of extreme weather events. • Concern over rate of change and potential for acceleration. • Short term challenges of responding to sudden changes, long term challenges of adaptation.

  8. Consequence management concerns • Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces. • Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important? • Consequential for budgets, planning and programs? • Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change? • International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?

  9. Adaptation concerns • Population support • Water and food • Health • Energy • Human security • Migration • Armed conflict • Governance • State viability • Economic viability

  10. Most vulnerable countries

  11. Why Africa?

  12. Water dependence in Africa

  13. Role of environmental policy (Hepburn) • Case of both market failure and government failure. • So what should government focus on? • Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change. • Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end-users get prices right. • Establishing stable rules of the game. • Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right.

  14. Policy tools • ‘Wait and see’ • Internalize climate change costs • Create markets • Regulate sources • Market facilitation (information) • Stimulate technological development • Ease economic adaptation • Pursue international coordinated response

  15. Defense Science Board 2011 recommendations • White House OSTP • Identify gaps in climate data • Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes. • NOAA/NASA • Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations. • DNI • Climate change > human security > national security? • Develop indicators

  16. Defense Science Board 2011 recommendations • NSC • Coordinate whole of government approach • DoD • Continued focus on MSCA and emergency response to catastrophic weather • Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, esp. water. • Enhance partner resilience. • Conflict avoidance/shaping efforts. • Focus on Africa as region at high risk. • Littoral risk assessment and adaptation.

  17. Implications for energy security • Core policy is to reduce use of fossil fuels and associated emissions. • Benefits to energy security: • Greater focus on efficiency. • Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America. • More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower. • Cons for security in general.

  18. Final thoughts • Already successful states: • Cost to address/mitigate climate change • Competition for capital with other states • Magnets for migration • Looked to for aid and disaster response • Less developed states: • Varying impact of climate change. • Poor governance increases risks. • Lower ability to adapt, esp. in agricultural economies • Trans-nationalization of conflicts over water, resources, migration. • Less able to manage uncertainty?

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