DR. R. K. PACHAURIChairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeDirector-General, The Energy and Resources InstituteDirector, Yale Climate & Energy Institute FUKUSHIMA, ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 28 April 2011, Malaysia
PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) (oC) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
OBSERVED CHANGES Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE ABOUT 1970 - Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate
THE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAS INCREASED OVER MOST LAND AREAS Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes
HEAT WAVES HAVE BECOME MORE FREQUENT OVER MOST LAND AREAS - Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
Photo credit: GoodPlanet MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS
Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea level continues to rise, flooding the homes of millions of people living in low lying areas IMPACTS ON COASTAL AREAS • In India, 1 m sea-level rise would include inundation of 5,763 km2(Gujarat, Maharashtra, West Bengal amongst vulnerable states) • Significant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the aquaculture industry
IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches and to affect water resources within the next 2 to 3 decades • Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to increases in sea level and over-exploitation • In India, gross per capita water availability will decline from 1820 m3/yr in 2001 to 1140 m3/yr in 2050
IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY • Water stress at low latitudes means losses of productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture • Possible yield reduction in agriculture: 50% by 2020 in some African countries 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia 30% by 2080 in Latin America • Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in africa due to climate variability and change
CHARACTERISTICS OF STABILIZATION SCENARIOS POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP GDP without mitigation Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term GDP with stringent mitigation IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP GROWTH GDP Current Time 2030
CO-BENEFITS OF MITIGATION Common drivers lie behind mitigation policies and policies addressing economic development, poverty, health, employment, energy security, and local environmental protection Linking policies provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies reducing greenhouse gases mitigation costs • CO2 mitigation potential for 2010 without net cost in India: between 13 and 23% of business as usual scenario
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SCENARIO SOURCE: WEO 2010
SHARES OF ENERGY SOURCES IN WORLD PRIMARY DEMAND BY SCENARIO SOURCE: WEO 2010
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUELIN THE NEW POLICIES SCENARIO SOURCE: WEO 2010
NUCLEAR POWER AND ITS ROLE IN FUTURE ENERGY SECURITY Nuclear Power and its role in future energy security
NUCLEAR POWER HAS BEEN FORMING AN INCREASING SHARE OF GLOBAL ENERGY MIX • Nuclear energy, already at about 7% of total primary energy, could make an increasing contribution to carbon-free electricity and heat in the future. • In 2005, 2626 TWh of electricity (16% of the world total) was generated by nuclear power, requiring about 65,500 t of natural uranium (WNA, 2006a). • Nuclear power capacity forecasts out to 2030 (IAEA, 2005c; WNA, 2005a;Maeda, 2005; Nuclear News, 2005) vary between 279 and269 740 GWe. • The worldwide operational performance has improved and the 2003–2005 average unit capacity factor was 83.3% (IAEA, 2006).
EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEMS LWR = light-water reactor; PWR = pressurized water reactor; BWR = boiling-water reactor; ABWR = advanced boiling-water reactor; CANDU = Canada Deuterium Uranium.
NUCLEAR ENERGY’S POTENTIAL FOR CO-BENEFITS IN MITIGATION POLICIES • Mitigation policies relating to energy efficiency of plants, fuel switching, renewable energy uptake and nuclear power, may have several objectives that imply a diverse range of co-benefits. • Reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector yields a global impact, but the co-benefits are typically experienced on a local or regional level. • Nuclear energy shares many of the same market co-benefits as renewables
MAJOR BARRIERS • Long-term fuel resource constraints without recycling • Economics • Safety • Waste management • Security • Proliferation • Adverse public opinion
A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.