Socio-Economic and Political Dynamic in Belarus shortly before Presidential Elections

1. Socio-Economic and Political Dynamic in Belarus shortly before Presidential Elections Prof. Dr. Oleg Manaev University of Tennessee, USA IISEPS, Belarus Washington D.C., September 8-11, 2015

2. Background Because of incomplete nature of the very “Project Belarus” – as a system of institutional and cultural features clearly differing Belarusian nation, state and society from the others – Belarus faced independence in 1991 as the most “denationalized nation” in the former USSR. This situation inevitably led Belarusians to a need for some “unifying basis”. President Lukashenka used this situation very effectively introducing himself as such “basis”. In fact, he limited the national identification and consolidation process by only one dimension – the state building and role of the President as it’s only one “guarantor”. Recent dramatic Ukraine-Russia conflict gave new dynamics to this process. Violation of the international order principles by Russia puts forward geopolitics again. The West is trying to counter-balance expansion of the “Russian World” by re-thinking and re-building relations with countries in the region including Belarus. This process affects Belarus Presidential elections in October 2015.

3. I. Economic SituationTable 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “How your personal economic situation has been changed during last three months” % * Economic Situation Index

4. Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: "Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?" %

5. Table 3.Dynamics of answering the question: “How economic situation in Belarus will change in the forthcoming years? % * Expectations Index

6. Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: "Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?" % * Development CorrectnessIndex

7. II. Attitudes to AuthoritiesTable 1. Dynamics of answering the question: "According to you, is the fact that now almost all of the state power is concentrated in the hands of A. Lukashenka, favorable for Belarus or there is nothing good for the country in it?" %

8. Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: "According to you, does A. Lukashenka know where he leads Belarus?“ %

9. Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: "According to you, whom does President A. Lukashenka mostly relies on?", % (several answers are possible)

10. Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: "Who is the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty in Belarus (Russia, Ukraine) according to the Constitution?" %

11. Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: "Who is the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty in Belarus (Russia, Ukraine) according to the Constitution?" %

12. Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: "Which of the following statements on Belarusian state, built under the rule of A. Lukashenka, do you agree with?" %

13. Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: "Which variant of changes do you consider most realistic and desirable in Belarus?“ %

14. Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: "If A. Lukashenka runs as a candidate on presidential elections for the fifth time, and he has an adversary from democratic opposition, who will you vote for?"%

15. Table 9. Dynamics of electoral rating of President A. Lukashenka, %

16. Table 10.Dynamics of answering the question:“Are you going to vote at the Presidential Elections in October 2015 г.?" %

17. Table 11. Distribution of answering the question: "Are most people trustworthy or is it important to be careful in relations with people?", %

18. III. Geo-political orientationsTable 1. Distribution of answering the question: "Do you think that people in Belarus live worse than people in Western countries?“ %

19. Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: "If there was a referendum on Belarus joining the EU, how wouldyou vote?" %

20. Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: "If there was a referendum on the integration of Belarus and Russia, how would you vote?" %

21. Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: "If you had to choose between integration with Russia and joining the European Union, what choice would you make?", %

22. Table 5. Distribution of answering the question: "Recently there has been an Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga, where Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia became yet even closer with the EU. Belarus remains aside from the process because of the problems with democracy and human rights. Some people think that our country should change its policy and approach the European Union as well, others disagree with this. What do you think?"%

23. Table 6.Distribution of answering the question:“Last year V. Putin justified the annexation of Crimea by the restitution of historic territories of Russia and reunification of the "Russian World". Patriarch Kirill said that "Russian World" is a separate civilization, and people, who call themselves Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, are part of this civilization". Some people in Belarus express positive attitude towards the idea of the "Russian World", others are negative. What is your attitude? %

24. Table 7.How do you evaluate work of the following national leaders? %

25. Table 8. Dynamics of answering the question: "If Russia tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?", %

26. Table 9. Dynamics of answering the question: "If NATO tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?", %

27. Table 10. Distribution of answering the question: “How do you evaluate the annexation of Crimea by Russia?“ %

28. Table 11. Distribution of answering the question: "Do you support independence of Novorossiya?“ %

29. Table 12. Distribution of answering the question: "What is your attitude to the participation of Belarusian citizensin combat actions in the East of Ukraine?" %

30. Table 13. Distribution of answering the question: "In the end of the past year Russia introduced a ban on importingfoods from the EU countries, which earlier introduced sanctions against Russia as an answer to itspolicy in Ukraine. According to you, how should Belarus act in this conflict?“ %

31. Table 14. Distribution of answering the question: “If Russia decides to bring their troops into Ukraine, do you think Belarus should permit Russia to do it through Belarusian territory?“ %

32. Table 15. Distribution of answering the question: ""Recently theCommander-in-Chief of the Russian Air ForceV. Bondarev announced that in 2015 Russia intends to quarter in Belarus an air-base with 24 SU-27fighters. Some people fell positive about this idea, some people feel negative, and others are indifferent.What is your attitude to it?" %

33. Table 16. According to you, should Belarus (like Ukraine and Lithuania) ban the usage of Soviet and Nazi symbols?

34. Table 17. Dynamics of answering the question: “How do you assess President A. Lukashenka’s policy towards crisis in Ukraine?” %