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A new era: Transformation in the Automotive Industry

A new era: Transformation in the Automotive Industry

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A new era: Transformation in the Automotive Industry

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  1. A new era:Transformation in the Automotive Industry Dr. Martin HölzPartner & Global Head of Automotive 8th December 2010, Istanbul

  2. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  3. The global automotive industry will not be the same as it has been in the past 100 years... • Liquidity Crisis • 2008-2009 • Major capacity reductions in NAFTA and Western Europe • Re-sourcing to stronger suppliers • Government loans • Bankruptcy and restructurings • Liquidations • Industry Restructuring • 2009-2010 • Capital availability improves • Large-scale asset sales • Strong balance sheets lead consolidation • New players and consolidators emerge, especially in emerging markets • “New” Industry • Future • Significant structural changes • Newly-consolidated global OEMs and suppliers • New companies born from restructuring • New business models • Emergence of new technologies for e-mobility A new era. Accelerating toward 2020 – An automotive industry transformed

  4. The future of the automotive industry will have significantly different characteristics • Vertically integrated structure • Sales channels are monopolized by OEM’s • High entry barriers for new“players” • High capital requirement • High dependencies between suppliers & OEMs Future perspective Traditional • Highly flexible, project-oriented structure • Multi-channel & multi-brand approach • New “players“ are established to achieve new mobility concepts • Still high capital requirement for technology-innovation • Increasing supplier autonomy and power • New generation of more environment friendly vehicles

  5. With the transformation to e-mobility there will be a significant change in the value chain of the automotive industry Value Chains Key Points • Shift in profit allocation from assembly to information technology and components • New “players“ from different industries such as energy, IT and electronics • Change from one-to-one towards multi-multi structure • Lower entry barriers Conventional Vehicle EV Initiated by automaker integration Initiated by various players’ specialization R&D Independent Research Companies (e.g. Engineering Companies Affiliated Supplier Affiliated Supplier Affiliated Supplier Parts Automaker B Automaker C Automaker A Automaker C Automaker B Automaker A Manufacturing Independent Suppliers (e.g. Battery, Motor, Inverter suppliers) Assembly Sales Affiliated Importer / Dealer Affiliated Importer / Dealer Affiliated Importer / Dealer Independent Multi-brand Dealers

  6. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  7. Most of the OEMs have already invested in differente-mobility technologies Manufacturer Global Automobile Sales (10.000 units in 2009) Investment in Technology HV pHV EV FCV Global Sales of over 2 M Vehicles Toyota GM VW Ford Honda PSA Nissan Hyundai Renault Suzuki Fiat-Chrys. Global Sales of Less than 2 M Vehicles Daimler Dongfeng BMW Opel Mazda Mitsubishi Daihatsu Tata BYD FAW New Entrant Bollore Fisker Th!nk

  8. The companies which already invested in e-mobility related topics are leading in the customer preferences Brand Preference (Example from Deloitte US-study) Question: From whom would you be most likely to purchase an EV? Companies with current models or models launching this year Other companies % of people Highlights • Car-buying is brand driven – trust is important • Toyota, Honda, and Ford have a high green brand equity from hybrid sales • Toyota, Honda, and Ford have a higher likelihood of success in e-mobility • Nissan and Chevrolet will face challenges due to the burden of educating consumers

  9. New comers from different industries have already started to enter the car-manufacturing business • Tesla Motors Case in Silicon Valley • Managed by founder of an IT venture-company • Hires talent from the aerospace and IT industry • New Chinese Entrants (Baoya, Shifeng, etc.) Motor Inverter Main Components are Procured Taiwanese companies Japanese manufacturer ASSEMBLY Battery Tesla Roadster 18650 type Baoya EV

  10. Alliances with companies from different industries against new comers and threats will be another critical decision for OEMs Key Points • How to manage the threat for lack of new technological know-how • In-house development vs. strategic alliances with suppliers, IT and electronic companies • Strategies against new comers from different industries like electronics & energy (Investment Ratio) Toyota Toyota Illustrative 60% Panasonic EV Energy (Plan) 40% Panasonic Sanyo Electric 100% Honda Honda 49% Blue Energy (Plan) 51% GS Yuasa 51% Lithium Energy Japan 15% Mitsubishi Motor Mitsubishi Motor 34% Mitsubishi Corp. Nissan Nissan 51% Automotive Energy Supply 42% NEC 7% NEC - Tokin Fuji Heavy

  11. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  12. The quite simple structure of EV’s and new business models enable new players to enter the manufacturing of cars • Case 1: Taiwan’s Hua-chuang Automobile Information Technical Center Co. Ltd. developed its own EV without any support from traditional suppliers • Procured key components from electronics manufacturers • Adopted driving module control technology from a venture company in the US • Case 2: China’s BYD Auto (former mobile phone battery manufacturer) built the capacity to manufacture EVs • Acquired an automobile and an inverter manufacturer • Gathered motor technologies from Chongqing University BYD E6 ! • About 95% availability of the resources for battery manufacturing (esp. noble earths as dysprosium, terbium) in China, which could lead to a significant competitive advantage for Chinese battery suppliers

  13. With “modularization-” and “plug-and-play-” concepts the role and power of suppliers in the industry will significantly shift • Definition of global standards enable “Modularization” • Connectivity without calibration - “Plug-and-Play” • Supply to two or more automakers • Achieve economies of scale (similar to semiconductor industry) • Mega-suppliers would become profitable, while automakers producing relatively small volumes of EVs would be less so Battery CPU Inverter Graphics Motor HDD

  14. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  15. Many countries have already set challenging goals for the penetration of HV/EVs. Goals for HV/EV Sales Japan • Goals for the penetration of next generation automobiles (set by Ministry of Environment) • 2020:sell 2.3 M.vehicles (HV 1.45 /EV 0.51 M)retain 13.5 Mvehicles (HV 9.3 /EV 2 M) • 2030sell 2.9 M vehicles (HV 1.83/ EV 0.73 M)retain 26.3 Mvehicles (HV 17/ EV 6 M) China • 2012 : retain 500 KHVs, 100 K EVs • 2020 : retain 18 M HVs, 4 M EVs • Long Run: retain 70 M HVs, 50 MEVs USA • Plans for penetration of 1 M pHVs by 2015 EU (Example) • 2020 :Germany plans to penetrate 1 M pHVs • 2020 : Ireland plans to penetrate 230 K Evs (10%)

  16. Many countries already heavily invested on e-mobility: More than US $44 B. R&D and Manufacturing Support Purchase incentive Infrastructure and system Intergovernmental cooperation Japan • Next-gen battery research and development • 2009 ~ 2015 / total 21 billion yen • The car green taxation system • Next generation car / fuel initiative EU – Japan Energy technology development workshop Illustrative China • 863 Project • Ministry of Science and Technology • FY06-08: 8.3 billion yen Development support to build a finished car • FY08-10:6.2 billion yen Core technology development support • Environmental car purchase assistance plan • Experimental national city power grid infrastructure charging • HV / EV development of national standards • China – US • Establishment of clean energy laboratory US • Car technology program / Hybrid electric system department (every year/ 165 million dollars) • The next generation battery, EV development, manufacturing, and proof experiment (FY09-/2.4 billion dollars) • Low-interest loan for gas-snipper production (FY09-/25 billion dollars) • PHV/EV purchase assistance plan(FY11-/7500 dollar or less per unit) • Maintenance is promoted by the cooperation of the state government and the private company (California:1 billion dollars investment) • EU Green Car Initiative project • France:R&D assistance for driving system and battery (FY09-/250 million Euro ) • Germany:R&D assistance of pHV/EV (FY09/115 million Euro) • UK: FY11-/Max of 5,000 pounds • France: Transfer to HV cars that passes 10 years or more/FY08-/Max of 5,000 Euro • Germany:Transfer to low-emission vehicle FY08-09Max of 2500 Euro Total of 5 billion Euro • UK: spend 20 million pounds for infrastructure • France: Experiment execution of the charge infrastructure maintenance • Germany: Pilot Charging Stations EU • Britain – China • A joint research concerning electrification of the car Note: The data and information was collected and compiled using various external media resources based on information available from around November 2008 to end of February

  17. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  18. E-vehicle sharing Case: LISELEC - La Rochelle, France 50 EV’s (Peugeot 106 and Citroën Saxo) 7 stations across the city Membership structure (Membership in Car clubs reached 100.000 in 2009) With the changing preferences and new dynamics, e-mobility will also play a critical role in the future urban transportation • User freedom • Cheap • Free parking • Convenience • Availability • Reduce global warming • Less traffic Benefits Station Other applications: Petit Renta in Japan, Car Clubs in the UK, Autolib in France and EV-tests in Germany.

  19. Technological advancements will increase the appetite of companies like Google, Microsoft, HP, etc. to invest in the automotive industry Vehicle conversion to social networks • Transportation Information • Traffic stream control • Pricing and payment systems • Lifelog Business • Understanding consumer behavior • Creation of new businesses • IT and electronics into the car • Web in the car • Car to car communication

  20. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  21. One of the important challenge of the industry is overcoming the barriers against mass adoption of new generation vehicles... Factors Driving Purchase Factors Preventing Purchase Question: What would be your main considerations when purchasing an EV? Question: What is the top factor that would prevent you from purchasing an EV (% of respondents)? Low High Six Adoption Barriers Familiarity 1 Brand 2 3 Range Charging 4 Infrastructure 5 Price and Ownership Cost 6 Source: Deloitte Survey, Interviews and Analysis

  22. Content ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

  23. The strategies and policies on e-mobility need to be built based on the needs and alignment of all parties in the automotive value chain Manufacturer & Supplier Manufacturing Strategy Regulations Customer Government Infrastructure Automotive Association Energy Policy Incentives