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WMO. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water. Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO Geoffrey Love, Ph.D.

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world meteorological organization working together in weather climate and water

WMO

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management

By

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO

Geoffrey Love, Ph.D.

Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Departments

CCL Technical Conference

16-18 February, 2010

Antalya, Turkey

www.wmo.int

paradigm shift from post disaster response to disaster prevention and preparedness
Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
  • In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!)
  • In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan)
    • New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues)
    • International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA

Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological, hydrological and climate services!

global distribution of disasters caused by natural hazards and their impacts 1980 2007
Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Loss of life

Number of

events

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Economic

losses

90% of events

70% of casualties

75% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

slide4

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007)

Number of events

Loss of life

Economic Losses

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

socio economic impacts of climate related extremes are on the rise

Disasters impacts many sectors!

Hazard, vulnerability and

exposure on the rise !

Need for

Multi-sectoral riskmanagement

Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise !

Energy

Aral Sea

Transportation

Water Resource

Management

Intensity

Strong Wind

People

Agriculture

Urban areas

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Drought

Heatwaves

Frequency

six components of an effective national disaster risk management framework
Six Components of An Effective National Disaster Risk ManagementFramework

Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency)

1

Risk Assessment

Risk Reduction

Risk Transfer

Historical Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

Preparedness (saving lives):early warning systems emergency planning and response

Prevention (Reduce economic losses):Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

2

CATastrophe insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

5

3

4

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training across agencies

6

understanding the risks provides evidence for preventing disaster risks
Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks!

Hazard

Analysis and

Mapping

Exposure

and

Vulnerability

Potential

Loss

Estimates

This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks

Number of lives at risk

  • $ at risk
  • Destruction of buildings and infrastructure
  • Reduction in crop yields
  • Business interruption
  • Impacts:
  • population density
  • agricultural land
  • urban grid
  • Infrastructure
  • Businesses

Heavy Precipitation

and flood mapping

Need for historical and real time data

Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis

Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis tools

Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information

slide8

Key

Input database

Model

Product

Possible Inputs

Populationdistribution

Local data

Economic data

Estimating the Risk with Consideration for Climate Variability and Changes!

1: Hazard Assessment

Historical Statisitical hazard analysis events

Future climate hazard trends (seasonal, inter annual, decadal)

+

1: Hazard Mapping

Hazard Model

Hazardestimate

Hazardmaps

Land cover

and elevation

Vulnerability /Damage Model

Risk maps

3: Risk Mapping

& Loss Estimation

Exposures

Probable Loss estimate

,

2: Damage Functions

Cost Benefit

Portfoliolosses /

mitigation

options

2: Asset Inventory and Valuation

Scenario Events

4: Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools

risk assessment requires a variety of climate services
Risk Assessment Requires a Variety of Climate Services….
  • Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata
  • Statistical hazard analysis and mapping tools
  • Forward looking hazard trend analysis

- Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts

- Probabilitic climate forecastsand long-term hazard trend analysis (seasonal to interannual, decadal)

wmo 2006 country level drr survey indicates that
WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that ….

Over 70 % of NMHS are challenged in supporting risk assessment!!!

  • Main needs are:
  • Modernisation of observation networks
  • Data rescue
  • Data management systems
  • Maintaining standardhistorical hazard database and metadata
  • Hazard analysis and mapping tools
    • Statistical analysis
    • Climate modelling

Source:2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

slide11

Increasingly more countries are developping Early Warning Systems for fast on-set events….

1

National

Government

DRR coordination mechanisms

Local

Governmentresponsible for emergency preparedness and response

Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination

4

Warning dissemination

feedback

Warning Dissemination

4

feedback

5

5

Community Emergency Plans and Prepared

3

Coordinated National

Technical Agencies and Ministries

4

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health, Agricuture (etc.)

2

Warning dissemination

feedback

5

slide12

WMO has partnered up with other agencies to Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines for Early Warning Systems

Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach

Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles

Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more good practices on the way)Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services

Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme

France “Vigilance System”

Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme

USA

Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

Germany

The Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst

Cuba

Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

First EWS Publication of a seriesbeing published by WMO and Springer Verlag in 2010

slide13

Loss of life from hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing…

BUT economic losses are on the way up!

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

to support sectoral risk assessment and management
…. to support sectoral risk assessment and management!

Infrastructure and Urban planning

Land zoning

Insurance / Finance

Agricultural productivity and food security

Tourism

Health epidemics

Water resource management

Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities

climate services are critical for re insurance markets and other risk transfer mechanisms
Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms

Which Risks?

What type of Financial tools?

Who Could Benefit?

Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?

Financial risks

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities

Other emerging products

Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!)

Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts

Decadal climate trend analysis

Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy)

Government

Companies

Individuals

Other

WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

slide16

WMO Workshop onCatastrophe and Weather-Indexed Insurance

December 2007, WMO HQ

Participants:(8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)

USER Perspectives were discussed:

  • Information requirements (data and forecasts):
    • Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
    • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)
    • Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)
    • Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
    • Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk, solvency analysis and long-term strategy)
  • Technical support and Service delivery needs

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

major initiatives underway for development of climate services for re insurance
Major Initiatives Underway for Development of Climate Services for (Re)Insurance
  • Drivers are
    • Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the companies to report of their climate risk
    • Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate research community to develop relevant climate services
    • Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many more)
  • WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives for benefit of more countries around the world
example of climate services in risk reduction many other examples exist
Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist)

DECISION MAKERS

  • Emergency Services
  • Government Authorities
  • Insurance
  • Public, Media
  • Local – National Government
  • Insurance
  • Suppliers
  • Public, Media
  • Urban planners
  • Local to national Governments
  • Banks
  • Insurance
  • Negotiators
  • Parlimentarian
  • Local/nationalgovernments
  • Private sector
  • Urban & coastal Emergency Preparedness
  • Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds
  • Strategic Planning
  • Building codes
  • Infrastructure & Urban Development and Retrofitting
  • Land Zoning and Planning
  • International negotiations and agreements
  • National policies and legilation

DECISIONS

  • Emergency planning activation and response
  • Evacuations, inventory, preparing houses

SERVICES

Future Decadal trend analysis: of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones

Climate Change scenarios – IPCC Process

Short to medterm weather forecasts: Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings

Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of severity and intensity of tropical cyclones

Next hour to 10 days

Decade

Season to year

Long term Scenarios

slide19

WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM

  • Identification of various user-communities and their requirements
    • (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance)
  • Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards
  • Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR
    • Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM
    • Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools
  • Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR
slide20

Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 – Present)

Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO

Central Asia and Caucasus

WMO Shanghai MH-EWS Demo

South East Europe

South East Asia

Central America and Caribbean

SADC

Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in Multi-Hazard EWS

slide21

Key Messages:

  • Disaster and Climate Risk Management are interlinked development issues
  • Development of Climate Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming
  • There is need for:
    • Historical and real-time hazard databases and statistical hazard analysis tools
    • Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR applications
    • Identification, segmentation of users and understanding of their needs and requirements (public and private sectors)
    • Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk assessment for various sectors
slide22

For more information please contact

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

World Meteorological Organization

Tel. 41.22.730.8006

Fax. 41.22.730.8023

Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

slide23

Leslie Malone

Scientific Officer

Climate Prediction & Adaptation Branch

Climate & Water Department

World Meteorological Organization

Tel: 41.22.730.8220

Fax: 41.22.730.8042

Email: LMalone@wmo.int

Thank you

Merci

Спасибо

Gracias

شكرا

谢 谢