World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. WMO World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water SWFDP - Eastern Africa Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Bujumbura, Burundi, 11 - 22 November 2013 WMO GDPFS Programme – SWFDP - Eastern Africa Peter Chen, Alice Soares WMO Secretariat, DPFS Division, WDS (pchen@wmo.int) WMO; WDS/DPFS www.wmo.int

2. Outline • Operational weather forecasting - the WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) and its Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) • SWFDP concepts and projects • SWFDP – Eastern Africa

3. « Basic Systems » ?? • severe weather warnings • Episodic • risks, impacts daily public forecasts - routine

4. The World Weather Watch System –An operational infrastructure • The World Weather Watch System combines: • Observing systems, GOS => WIGOS, • Telecommunication, data and information exchange network, WIS (GTS), and • Production - data-processing and forecasting systems (in GDPFS) • Operated by Members, coordinated through the WMO Secretariat • To make available meteorological and related geophysical information needed by Members for providing efficient Meteorological SERVICES

5. The Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) of the WWW • Makes available to WMO Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions to enable them to provide … high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services …. • Applications of NWP outputs • GDPFS supports many WMO programmes and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, IAEA, etc. • (see: “Manual on the GDPFS”- WMO-No. 485)

6. World Weather Watch & Basic Systems S&T into operational services <= Integrated Observing System (WWW/WIGOS) <= Global Telecom & Data Management (WWW/WIS) <= Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (WWW/GDPFS) <= National Meteorological Services providing services to public and users (PWS)

7. GDPFS Centres + National Meteorological Centres

8. Weather Forecasting Daily forecasts and weather information are available on: Open Internet Private enterprises Academic institutions Weather as news (e.g. focus on disasters) WMO Operational weather forecasting WMO’s GDPFS Centres Numerous advanced NWP Centres Authoritative, reliable and quality assured sources of information (objective verification), sustainable and replicable

9. GDPFS Centres • GDPFS Centres are NMCs at NMHSs • 24/7/365 operationally supported infrastructure (e.g. at NMCs, RSMCs, GPCs) • Highly automated and robust production with backup, and recovery system • Meteorological expertise • Regional structure (e.g. multi-national and regional centres) for collaboration, harmonization, operational advantage

10. GDPFS • Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project • Cascading forecasting process: • Global products centres => RSMCs => National Centres • Collaborative Exploitation of Ensemble System Products • Enhancing availability, use and applications, in probabilistic forecasting, e.g. for severe weather; • Multi-model ensemble applications • Long-range Forecasting (seasonal forecasts) (see http://www.wmolc.org) • Global Producing Centres => Regional => National Centres • Nuclear Environmental Emergency Response Arrangements • Maintain operational commitment of designated RSMCs – in coordination with International Organizations (IAEA, ICAO, CTBTO, UN-OCHA, WHO)

11. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. “Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” • Eugenia Kalnay (2003) • From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

12. The Challenge: mitigating the growing technological gap in weather forecasting ? Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past two decades – advances in monitoring and NWP and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) leading to improved alerting of weather hazards, at increased lead-times of warnings Most of NMHSs saw little progress due to limited budgets, etc. increasing gap in application of advanced technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap by increasing availability, and developing capacity to use existing NWP and EPS 12

13. Why an SWFDP? • WMO developed the SWFDP to improve severe weather forecasting and warning services in NMHSs where sophisticated NWP/EPS outputs are not currently used • Linking Forecasting (GDPFS) with Service Delivery (PWS), and engaging regions of few countries • Introducing new forecasting products into the operational environment, supported by annual training and evaluation & verification activities, to improve warning services • Pave the way for promising R&D outputs (e.g. TIGGE-GIFS) in transition to operations • Principal focus: hazardous weather conditions and weather-related hazards

14. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities • Disaster Risk Reduction • Capacity Development • Climate change adaptation

15. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals • Improve Severe Weather Forecasting • Improve lead-time of Warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities SWFDP Regional Subprojects • Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion) • Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC Fiji) • Eastern Africa (ongoing, 7 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) • Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries) • Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

16. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Flash Flood Guidance HWR PWS General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Specific Comm. Systems Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) Global Centres Regional Centre Guidance Products (risk/probability) RSMCs-TC TC GDPFS WMO SP WWRP Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Satellite Imagery and Tools Research Projects SWFDP links and synergies SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Radio; TV E-mail; etc. Media Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems

17. SWFDP: • Southern Africa • Eastern Africa • Southwest Pacific • Southeast Asia GIFS-TIGGE products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)

18. SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress) WMO • Focus on: • Strong winds • Heavy precipitation • Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) • Dry spells • Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries • Domains: • 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) • 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) • Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) • MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) • Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD • National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Ethiopia, South Sudan • Started September 2011

19. SWFDP – Eastern Africa6 countries, RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar-es-Salaam, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF, DWD RFSC Dar-es-Salaam since 2011 RSMCNairobi Since 2011

20. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings • Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting (GDPFS) and warning services (PWS) • High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves, storm surges, etc.), and application areas (e.g. TCP, AgM, HWR, MMO, etc) • Forecast verification • Climate change adaptation

21. SWFDP – Project FrameworkCBS Steering Group for SWFDP • REFERENCE : • SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010) • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf • SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects • (rev. 2010) • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf