World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. WMO World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water Climate Services for the Farming Sector M.V.K. Sivakumar R. Stefanski Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch WMO: Climate and Water www.wmo.int

2. Global Availability of Food has increased with time Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

3. However the number of hungry and malnourished still remains large Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

4. Food demands are increasing: Example from India* * Direct+indirect; Chand et al. (2009) Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

5. Climatic risks are increasing Source: Munich Re 2009 Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

6. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas 94.4 centimeters (37.1 inches) on 26 July 2005in Mumbai (India) 1 million people lost their homes Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

7. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes Tropical cyclones have increased in intensity over the past 3 decades - Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

8. Landslides Main triggering mechanism for Landslides is exceptionally heavy rainfall. A significant increase in Landslide occurrences 10 districts out of 25 are vulnerable to landslides. Almost 30% of the land area in Sri Lanka Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

9. Increased occurrence of droughts On average Sri Lanka faces drought conditions every 3-4 years. However, in the recent few decades – more and more droughts are experienced. Water is very precious in drier parts of Sri Lanka Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

10. Losses associated with climatic risks are increasing Source: Munich Re 2009 Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

11. Rainfed Farming Remains a Risky Business • As much as 80% of the variability in agricultural production is due to the variability in weather conditions • In India, 65 percent of the total cropped land is rain dependent and hence subjected to vagaries of monsoon. • Failure of rains and occurrence of natural disasters such as floods and droughts could lead to crop failures, food insecurity, famine, loss of property and life, mass migration, and negative national economic growth. Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

12. Water For Agriculture is a Crucial Issue • More than 1 billion people do not have access to drinking water and 31 developing countries face chronic freshwater availability problems. • By 2025, population in water-scarce countries could rise to 2.8 billion, representing roughly 30 per cent of the projected global population. • Over the next two decades, the world will need 17 per cent more water for agriculture and the total water use will increase by 40 per cent. • In many developing countries, 70 per cent of the available fresh water is used for irrigation. Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

13. The Need for Efficient Climate Services for the Farming Sector is greater than ever before !

14. Key elements of Climate Services for Farming Sector • Acquisition and wider dissemination of data and products • Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks • Advancing knowledge base for adaptation • Assisting in the intensification of food production systems • Enabling institutions and policy support • Partnerships and capacity enhancement Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

15. Acquisition and wider dissemination of data and products • There is a greater demand for data from agric. research, education and extension services • There are greater opportunities for value-added climatic information and products • Early warning systems • Agro-advisories based on seasonal climate forecasts • Vulnerability indicators-climate change • Yield potential mapping • Yield forecasting Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

16. Acquisition and wider dissemination of data and products • Advanced tools have become more widely available to address stakeholder’s needs for value added information: • Automatic weather stations • Global circulation models • Regional climate models • Numerical weather prediction models • Downscaling techniques. Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

17. Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks • Promoting climate risk management strategies through: • Avoiding the dangers • Preventing/reducing the frequency of impacts • Controlling/reducing the consequences (coping and adaptation measures) • Transferring the risk (e.g. insurance) • Responding appropriately to incidents/accidents (e.g. disaster management) • Recovering or rehabilitating as soon as possible (e.g. media response) Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

18. Advancing knowledge base for adaptation • Developing an effective adaptation response requires an understanding of the vulnerabilities of different agricultural commodities • Most of the current understanding of impacts in developing countries based on generic global scale assessments using long-term scenarios • Locally relevant research, using downscaled scenarios for short-term, is needed to understand • Probable impacts of climatic risks • Adaptation strategies, especially in relation to subsistence agriculture, and native crops such as legumes, oilseeds, plantations, and fish and livestock species. Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

19. Assisting in the Intensification of Food Production Systems • Bridging yield gaps in crops • Enhancing livestock productivity • Sustaining growth in fisheries Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

20. Assisting in the Intensification of Food Production Systems (2) Yield gaps in wheat in India • Bridge yield gaps in crops and regions • Quality seed • Integrated nutrient management • Integrated pest management • Demonstrations of new technologies • Farmers training • Climate knowledge is essential for the above Demand by 2020 Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

21. Enabling Institutions and Policy Support • Integrating perspectives on climatic risks in current national policies in different sectors will lead to increased adaptive capacity to current as well as future climatic variability • disaster management • water resources management • land use • biodiversity conservation • agricultural development Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

22. Partnerships and Capacity Enhancement • For a holistic management of climatic risks in agriculture, new and innovative models of cooperation and partnerships are needed between institutions of: • Meteorology (WMO, NMHSs) • Food production technology and land degradation (e.g. CGIAR, NARES, UNCCD, Soil Conservation Services) • Food policy (FAO and National Entities) • Such partnerships should explore securing global adaptation funds for research and development activities with the aim of: • Reducing exposure of agriculture to multiple risks • Providing incentives to farmers for resource conservation • Ensuring food security and poverty alleviation Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

23. Conclusions • Farming sector is most important for many developing economies in the world. • There is increasing competition for land and water resources and climate change will intensify the struggle for natural resources. • Knowledge-intensive agriculture is the need of the day and climate information and applications are part of this knowledge. • Improved climate services for farming communities need to be part of the national agricultural policies. Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference

24. Thank You Inter-Regional Workshop on Policy AspectsJoint Egyptian-Dutch Conference 24 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION