Long-term scenarios of development from the Polish point of view

1. Long-term scenarios of development from the Polish point of view Dr Władysław Piskorz Counselor Minister Permanent Representation of Poland to the EU in Brussels Polish spokesman in the SCA Vision of a long-term agricultural and rural development in EU International Conference, Prague – Suchdol, May 25-26

2. Growing Economy Poland's economy, with GDP growth of 3,2% in 2005, is developing much faster than the Euro zone (1.3%) and higher than the average of all 25 EU members (1.6%). Poland's growth has been driven to a significant extent by export growth, industrial production and investments.  

3. Visible progress • Poland 1989 • GDP/capita 24% EU15 • Ø monthly salary $ 34 • Inflation 652% • Share of private companies <30% • Regulated prices >80% • Market description: cues • EU membership: fantasy • Poland 2006 • GDP/capita 46% EU15 • Ø monthly salary $ 770 • Inflation 1% • Share of private companies 75% • Regulated prices <1% • Makret description: competition • EU membership: reality

4. Problems of rural areas in Poland • low level of education and qualifications of the rural population, • farmers with primary education: • Poland 32% • EU15 16,9% • high unemployment (20%), including unregistered unemployment in rural areas - ca. 1 million • low standard of living compared to cities

5. Problems of rural areas in Poland cont. • insufficient development of the technical, social and cultural infrastructure, • insufficient health care and access to public services, • low level of income limiting the demand for goods and non-agricultural services, • Wide range of poverty in rural areas (12% of population with incomes below existence minimum),

6. Barriers in agriculture • farms are too small • too many people working • underinvestment • not sufficient level of specialization

7. Some achievements: • Access to public water supply: • 1990: ca. 30% of rural households, 2.3% of farm households • 1999: 60% of rural households, 72% of farm households Telephones in rural areas: 1990: 26.9 per 1000 inhabitants 2003: 196.7 per 1000 inhabitants • But: access to pre-school education: • 50% - national average • 14% - rural areas Budzich-Szukala U.: Rural development measures in Poland: Experiences and initiatives. Agricultural Policy Symposium.Berlin 2005

8. Strength of rural economy in Poland • Well-developed net of institutionally protected environmental areas • Unique biodiversity of most agricultural areas in Poland - Poland has the richest bio-diversity in the whole of Europe • High natural and tourist value of rural landscape • Potential to produce organic food - Poland has an agriculture which is very nearly organic due to its low use of fertilizer and pesticides • Entrepreneurial attitude of a large part of population

9. Farmers benefited from accession to the EU more and quicker than expected • Prices of agricultural products have risen • Stabilization of agricultural policies • Availability of funding • Polish agriculture and food sector is doing better under CAP than without CAP • Change in farmers’ attitudes: • before accession: only 21% in favour • currently: 72% of farmers support EU

10. Fears not materialized • Poland was not flooded with cheap agricultural products form EU • Food from Poland is gaining EU market • Surprisingly strong expansion of exports • Investment boom in food processing • IACS in place on time, direct payments reached 1,5 million farmers • For the first time farmers in Poland benefit from agricultural policy which is • stable, • efficient • transparent

11. Polish agri-food trade [billion euro]

12. Long Term Research Programe of the IAFE on“Social and Economic Factors of the Development of Polish Food Economy after theEnlargement.” Report No 1http://www.ierigz.waw.pl/documents/Raport_Gburczyk.pdf

13. Prospects for Poland Poland in 2015 will be the country with high level standard of living and strong and competitive economy capable to create new jobs Substantial improvement of quality of life in rural areas (roads, transport, energy-supply, health-care, communication, waste-water treatment, sports facilities etc.)

14. What will Polish agriculture be like in 25 years? • Agriculture will not stop to be the originalsource of food and an important source of renewable energy. • Its significance as a trustee of largepart of the country’s natural resources will become more apparent. • Itsimportance as a source of rural population income will diminish. • There will be strong diversification ofsources of the rural population income. • Agriculture will become even more diversified

15. What will Polish agriculture be like in 25 years? • the role of agriculture as a producer of biomass forenergy purposes will become crucial. • “Polish specialties” will bestrengthened. • The novelty will be popularization of the ranch type rearing of beef cattle. • Sheep production will experience renaissance.

16. What will Polish agriculture be like in 25 years? • The generation change in agriculture willenable conversion of agriculture into knowledge-based and information economy. • The majorityof new farmers will be well educated and more inclined to cooperate with others. • Human capital and social capital will play a decisive role in agriculturalproduction.